• Third-down gap: ARI 46.9% conversions (94th pct) versus DAL 47.1% stop rate (3rd pct). Arizona can win time of possession.

• Dak’s protection: DAL sack rate allowed 3.2% (94th pct) against ARI sack rate generated 4.0% (16th pct). Clean platform for deep and intermediate routes.

• Explosive scoring tilt: DAL big-play TD rate 25% (84th pct). ARI explosive pass allowed is mid-table (7.7%). Cowboys can finish explosives.

• Turnover profile: ARI defence generates turnovers on only 0.9% of plays (11th pct). Fewer short fields against DAL.

• Red-zone lens: DAL defence allows TDs on 63.6% of trips (20th pct). That boosts ARI TD odds on sustained drives.

• Health watch: Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. are Questionable. Dallas secondary has multiple Questionables. Expect late movement if statuses change.

• Anchor spread: DAL -3.0 at +108 / ARI +3.0 at -122. Price points favour a Dallas side if you trust pass-pro vs AZ rush. If Murray is confirmed healthy, market may tighten.

• Anchor total: 53.5 (Over -118 / Under -114). Traits lean to scoring via Dallas explosives and ARI third-down staying power. Volatility rises with QB status.

• Team totals: DAL 27.5 (Over -120 / Under -123). ARI 25.5 (Over -122 / Under -116). These mirror the third-down and red-zone matchups.

• Prop lean — Trey McBride anytime TD +100: Dallas red-zone D bottom-tier; McBride is Arizona’s chain mover.

• Prop lean — CeeDee Lamb Over 77.5 yds -120: Big-play TD rate strong; Prescott protection is a green light. Note he’s listed Questionable.

• Prop lean — Dak Prescott Over 269.5 yds -120: Low ARI turnover rate and modest sack conversion support volume.

• Prop lean — George Pickens Over 61.5 yds -118: Cowboys’ long-drive efficiency (92.3%) feeds steady targets.

• Prop lean — Kyler Murray Over 255.5 yds -119: Dal third-down defence is poor; flag volatility with his leg listing.

Dallas has the cleaner trench outlook for the passing game. Low sack rates and big-play finishing power give the Cowboys a clear path to points. If they protect, Prescott can attack intermediate windows and let his stars work after the catch.

Arizona can answer by winning the down-to-down battle. Their third-down efficiency is real, and Dallas’ defence struggles to get off the field. If Murray is healthy, quick rhythm throws to Trey McBride and perimeter shots to Marvin Harrison Jr. can keep pressure on a thin secondary.

The injuries point to aerial production on both sides. Dallas’ secondary is stretched. Arizona’s line is banged up, so timing and tempo matter. That mix supports a higher-variance, pass-tilted game.

Numbers say this should be close around a field goal with scoring chances on both sides. Lean Cowboys -3.0 at a plus price if you trust protection and explosives. For totals, the mid-50s make sense but track Murray’s status before finalising any Over position.