Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-161) | HIGH confidence. Cease is averaging 8.67 strikeouts per start in his last three outings and has cleared 6.5 in two of three. His 2026 pace sits near 16 K/9. Against Milwaukee specifically he has been dominant across multiple seasons: 8 strikeouts in September 2025, 10 in June 2024, 7 in April 2024. The batter-by-batter matchup data is just as favorable: Contreras is 1-for-9 against him with a 0.222 OPS, Gary Sánchez is 0-for-4, Blake Perkins is 0-for-3. A depleted Brewers lineup playing through a six-game losing streak is the ideal environment for a strikeout arm with elite command of his breaking ball. Pay the juice here.

Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 Total Bases (-112, HIGH confidence): Lowe is the best individual play on this board. His 1.475 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, .679 slugging percentage, and 7 HR in 68 plate appearances make him an elite power threat. Career versus Irvin: .400 average, 1.500 OPS, 1 HR in 6 PA. Irvin allowed 38 HR across 180 innings in 2025, a rate that makes him especially vulnerable to premium power bats. Lowe hit a 3-run homer in this same series on April 14. At -112, the market has not priced this matchup correctly.

Both Teams to Score: No at +112 is a strong lean. Leeds have one goal in five matches, zero in the last four straight. They're underperforming xG by 1.4 this season, signaling a systemic finishing problem, not bad luck. If United score (and they will at home), Leeds' historic drought means the second goal won't come. HIGH confidence.

Under 2.5 Goals at +126 has clear value. The blended model projects 2.4 total. The market line is 2.5. Leeds' four-game scoreless run plus United's injury-depleted defense (likely forcing a conservative tactical setup) points to a low-event afternoon. One goal is enough for United to win. Leeds won't add a second. HIGH confidence.