Manchester City -1.5 Asian Handicap: A 2.5-goal margin is baked into our model, and City's recent surge (3W-2D last five) against Burnley's 0W-1D-4L form makes -1.5 at -233 (69.9%) a strong anchor bet. Burnley's worst xG differential in the league (-38.91) ensures they'll be overwhelmed.

Draw at 1-1. Bournemouth have not won at home since January (0W-2D-0L last five). Leeds unbeaten away (W1-D4 last five) with just 0.4 goals against per game. Market at 27.4% implied probability reflects the structural equilibrium of two teams with opposing priorities: one needing to win, one content with a point. This is the high-confidence primary wager.

Over 3.5 Cards. Referee Michael Salisbury ranks 2nd in the league at 4.5 cards per match. Bournemouth frustrated by their own missed chances at home; Leeds defending late to protect a point. Tactical intensity and card-happy officiating combine for a high-card environment. At negative-125 (55.6%), solid value in a frustration-prone draw.

Marcos Senesi to be Carded. Bournemouth's centre-back averages 0.25 yellows per 90 minutes (8Y in 2848 min), the highest booking rate on their roster. Salisbury's 4.5 cards-per-match profile and the predicted frustration-driven game flow (1-1 or 0-0) create a recipe for a booking. At plus-250 (28.6%), fair value against a player primed for a yellow.