Mikal Bridges Under 13.5 Points (-135) | HIGH confidence. This is the clearest prop edge on the board tonight. Bridges is averaging just 8.7 PPG over his last ten games, down six full points from his season average of 14.7. He had 6 points against the Pelicans in the first matchup this season. His usage rate is only 17.1% and he logs just 5.6 drives per game, among the lowest on the team. The deep slump is real, and Under 13.5 at -135 is priced exactly right.

James Harden Over 7.5 Assists: Harden's season average (8.0 APG), L10 (7.7 APG), and historical split vs Orlando (8.0 APG across 2 games) all converge at or above 7.5. CLE favored by 10 guarantees a positive game script where Harden facilitates deep into the fourth quarter through extended half-court sets.

Devin Booker Over 25.5 Points (-127) | High Confidence: This is the clearest prop on the board. Booker's L10 of 29.8 PPG sits 4.3 points above this line on recent form alone. He averaged 27.5 PPG against Denver in two meetings this season, and his 30.6% usage rate with 15.8 drives per game means volume is not a concern. With Brooks and Allen out, Booker carries an even heavier scoring load tonight. A line of 25.5 is generous given everything the data says about his current form.

Paolo Banchero Over 24.5 Points: Banchero has averaged 29.7 PPG in 3 career games vs Cleveland at 52.1% FG, and his L10 has surged to 25.3 PPG. Playing as Orlando's lone reliable scorer in a deficit situation spikes his usage further , matchup history and current form both comfortably clear 24.5.