De'Aaron Fox Over 5.5 assists (-169) , HIGH confidence. This is the cleanest edge on the entire slate. Fox averages 6.2 APG on the season, 7.0 APG over his last ten (trending up), and 6.3 APG across six games against New York. Every single split lands comfortably above 5.5. His 12.1 drives per game and 28.6 AST% lock in his role as the primary distributor. In a half-court elimination game where Wembanyama needs to be fed in controlled sets, Fox becomes even more central to how San Antonio generates offense. The juice at -169 is fair for a prop with this level of cross-split confirmation. Bet this one confidently.

First Basket: Victor Wembanyama (+333). San Antonio wins the opening tip 78.8% of the time, the highest tip-win rate in this matchup by a significant margin. Wembanyama's first-basket rate on the team is 25.3%, the best on the Spurs, representing 19 first baskets in 75 starts. He takes the opening shot on more than one in four possessions when San Antonio controls the tip, backed by a 31.6% usage rate and 5.9 drives per game to generate volume. Near-certain tip possession combined with the league's best first-basket rate at this position is a decisive combination at +333.

Wenceel Perez Under 0.5 hits (+136), HIGH confidence. Career vs Cantillo: 5 PA, .000 average, 0.000 OPS. Zero hits in 2025 (3 PA, 0.000 OPS) and zero hits in 2026 (2 PA, 0.000 OPS). His season slash of .186/.249/.359 is already one of the weakest in the lineup. The market's implied probability sits at 42.4%. The BvP record against this specific pitcher tells a different story. This is the kind of matchup edge that earns value precisely because broader markets do not price pitcher-specific contact history the way careful data review does. Best-value prop on the board today.

Sean Burke Over 4.5 strikeouts (-122), high confidence. Burke's 2026 K/9 is 8.66. His last three starts: 7 K in 4.1 innings, 6 K in 5.1 innings, 8 K in 7.0 innings. He cleared 4.5 strikeouts in all three outings, including the shortened start against Philadelphia where he still posted 7 Ks despite walking five. The Dodgers strike out at a league-average or higher rate. Even if Burke is pulled early, his strikeout production comes fast. Three consecutive starts over this line is a pattern worth trusting at -122.