De'Aaron Fox Over 5.5 assists (-169) , HIGH confidence. This is the cleanest edge on the entire slate. Fox averages 6.2 APG on the season, 7.0 APG over his last ten (trending up), and 6.3 APG across six games against New York. Every single split lands comfortably above 5.5. His 12.1 drives per game and 28.6 AST% lock in his role as the primary distributor. In a half-court elimination game where Wembanyama needs to be fed in controlled sets, Fox becomes even more central to how San Antonio generates offense. The juice at -169 is fair for a prop with this level of cross-split confirmation. Bet this one confidently.

First Basket: Victor Wembanyama (+333). San Antonio wins the opening tip 78.8% of the time, the highest tip-win rate in this matchup by a significant margin. Wembanyama's first-basket rate on the team is 25.3%, the best on the Spurs, representing 19 first baskets in 75 starts. He takes the opening shot on more than one in four possessions when San Antonio controls the tip, backed by a 31.6% usage rate and 5.9 drives per game to generate volume. Near-certain tip possession combined with the league's best first-basket rate at this position is a decisive combination at +333.

Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases @ -105 (HIGH) Ohtani owns King in a way that is not a small-sample anomaly. Across 18 career PA: .438 AVG, 1.625 OPS, 3 home runs against this specific pitcher. In 2026, 3 PA against King still produced a 1.167 OPS. His season slugging is .542 with 17 home runs, and his L28d OPS of 1.098 confirms he is locked in right now. A pitcher who has surrendered 3 home runs to the same batter in 18 PA is a structural power problem, not a fluke. Getting 2 or more total bases from the best hitter in the game against a pitcher he historically dominates, at essentially even money, is the sharpest individual value on this slate.

Spencer Steer Over 0.5 Hits (-200, HIGH): Steer is .381 with a 1.167 OPS across 26 career PA against Keller. That is meaningful volume for a batter-vs-pitcher split: he has produced in 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026. Keller's 4.89 ERA and 1.51 WHIP reflect a hittable pitcher right now. Steer is his most consistent nemesis in this Cincinnati lineup. The -200 price reflects the strength of the matchup data.