Arsenal Win at -909: This reflects 89.5% win probability, and our model actually supports an even higher expectation. Arsenal's 1.123 xGD per game at home against a relegated side posting -1.196 away makes this close to a certainty. The bet is pricing in exactly what the data shows.

Both Teams to Score: No at -179: This is the structural angle. Arsenal's aggressive press, three consecutive home clean sheets, and Burnley's 0.1 projected xG form a wall Burnley cannot penetrate. The market is pricing this at 64.1% implied, which respects Arsenal's defensive control.

Hannibal Mejbri to be Carded at +200: Mejbri's 8 yellows in 25 appearances (0.65 per 90) is the highest booking rate in this matchup. Against Tierney's 3.5 card rate and in a must-defend setup where tactical fouling mounts, this is near-certainty. The market prices it at 33.3% implied, understating his disciplinary risk.

Zian Flemming Shots on Target Over 0.5 at +120: Flemming's 0.74 SOT per appearance (20 in 27 games) and 2.8 shots per 90 give him elite volume. Even in a losing effort, Arsenal's dominance comes in waves. Burnley's rare counterattacking chances will see Flemming test the keeper with at least one on-target attempt.