• ATL can stress SF downfield. Falcons’ explosive pass rate is 9.5% (84th percentile), while SF allows explosive passes at 8.6% (16th).

• ATL rush can get home. Falcons generate sacks at 9.1% (95th), and convert pressure to sacks at 9.1% (95th), testing a 49ers QB room that is Questionable.

• SF ground game lacks bursts. 49ers’ explosive run rate is just 1.2% (6th), so long runs have been rare.

• Money downs are a clash. SF converts third downs 45.3% (91st), but ATL stops third downs 67.9% (91st).

• Short yardage favors ATL’s defense. Falcons’ third-and-short stuff rate is 60.0% (100th), which can stall SF drives near the sticks.

• Small-sample caution. Big-play TD rate numbers come from 22 plays for each side, so finishing long plays is volatile.

• Anchor spread: 49ers -3.0 (-103). Near even price. SF’s third-down offense 45.3% meets ATL’s strong stops, so expect swings around this key number.

• Anchor total: 47.0 (Under -115 / Over -119). ATL limits explosives allowed through the air 3.6% (94th) and SF’s explosive run rate is 1.2%, which leans Under, but the price is modest juice.

• Michael Penix Jr. Over 228.5 pass yds (-119). SF’s sack rate generated is only 2.5% (3rd), improving Penix’s time to throw.

• Drake London Over 76.5 rec yds (-120). Fits ATL’s 9.5% explosive pass rate vs SF’s 8.6% explosive passes allowed. Action is volatile until London is confirmed in.

• Bijan Robinson Over 76.5 rush yds (-120). With Warner out and SF allowing 4.5% explosive runs, Bijan volume can stack yards.

• Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD (-204). Heavy juice (price you pay), but SF’s long-drive efficiency is 100% and ATL allows TDs on 66.7% of red-zone trips.

Always adjust stake for players listed Questionable. Waiting for inactives reduces risk.

This matchup hinges on health. San Francisco’s defensive core is thin without Warner and Bosa. The pass rush numbers reflect it, which can boost Atlanta’s passing rhythm if London and Pitts are active.

Atlanta’s defense brings heat and stops short yardage, but the Falcons’ offense still needs to finish drives. Field goals over touchdowns have been a theme at times, so red-zone execution matters.

Our anchors: 49ers -3.0 (-103) and Total 47.0 with a slight lean to the Under -115 due to Atlanta’s explosive-play prevention and SF’s lack of rushing bursts. For props, Penix Over 228.5 (-119) and Bijan rushing Over 76.5 (-120) fit the matchup, while London Over 76.5 (-120) is attractive if he’s in. Manage juice and scale bets to injury news.