• Ravens explosive run rate is 9.0% (97th percentile; sample 67). That is their cleanest path to chunk yards.

• Chiefs limit explosive runs at 2.3% allowed (78th; sample 86). Strength meets strength on the ground.

• Ravens allow explosive passes on 9.8% of attempts (6th; sample 122). That invites KC shot plays if a speed WR is active.

• Baltimore’s pass rush finish rate is just 1.6% and sack-rate generated 1.6% (both 9th; sample 124). Mahomes could have time.

• Ravens offense converts third downs at 44.1% (81st; sample 34). KC’s defense stops third downs at 64.9% (73rd; sample 37). Possession battles will be tight.

• Injuries matter: BAL LT Ronnie Stanley is Questionable, which ties to their 13.6% sack rate allowed (3rd). KC WRs Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown are Questionable, which affects KC’s deep-pass ceiling. Volatility rises if they sit.

• Anchor spread: Ravens -3.5 at +102. You get plus money but you eat the hook. High-variance spot at Arrowhead.

• Anchor total: 48.5 with Over -115 and Under -119. Market expects mid-to-high 40s. Juice is real on both sides.

• Chiefs team total 23.0: Over -118, Under -120. BAL allows red-zone TDs at 78.6% (12th), which leans toward KC finishing drives.

• Ravens team total 24.5: Over -120, Under -119. KC’s third-down stop rate 64.9% (73rd) can mute longer BAL drives.

• Travis Kelce over 39.5 receiving yards (-119). BAL explosive-pass allowed rate is poor and DB injuries raise coverage risk.

• Patrick Mahomes over 238.5 passing yards (-120). Ravens’ low sack-conversion rates suggest clean pockets more often than not.

This game turns on three things. Can Baltimore’s run game pop explosives against a KC front that usually keeps runs in front? Can the Chiefs’ pass rush stress a Ravens line that has allowed a high sack rate? And do the Chiefs get enough downfield speed on the field?

If the Chiefs protect and one of their speed threats plays, Mahomes should find windows against a secondary that has allowed explosives. That also unlocks Kelce underneath. If those shots hit, Kansas City’s team total over becomes live.

If Baltimore controls early downs on the ground and keeps third downs short, they can lean on long drives and Lamar’s legs. That supports a Ravens cover, but the hook at -3.5 adds risk and demands margin.

Expect momentum swings and short fields to decide it. Respect the juice on 48.5 and the volatility tied to multiple Questionables. Size your positions with that in mind.