Take Your Baseball Betting to The Next Level: NRFI Bets
NRFI (No Runs First Inning) bets, pronounced "ner-fee," are sweeping in popularity, offering bettors nail-biting action straight from the first pitch. Are you afraid of missing out? Here is how you can capitalize on the NRFI bet trend and what are the best teams to back.What does an NRFI bet mean in Baseball?
An NRFI stands for 'No Runs in the First Innings.' Bettors are wagering that no runs will be scored in the first inning. So you need 6 consecutive outs for the NRFI bet to land.
When you factor in that a baseball game consists of 9 innings, betting on the outcome of the first one can give bettors a lot of action from the get-go. It also adds an element of instant gratification if the bet does land, and players can use any potential winnings to bet on the rest of the game.
It's no surprise then that bettors are getting in on the action and that NRFI and YRFI bets have become very popular in MLB betting.
So what does a YRFI bet mean in Baseball?
YRFI bets are the opposite of NRFIs, as here you are betting for a run to be scored in the first inning, hence 'Yes Runs First Inning'.
Pro handicapper Captain Jack Andrews has written a very popular twitter thread on NRFIs, and suggested the value would be on YRFIs.
He worked it out that the odds of No Runs being scored at the start of a half-inning is 72.6%, and that the odds for No Runs in any given inning would be 52.71% (72.6%*72.6%). But that would be any given inning, not the 1st one.
Captain Jack highlighted that the top of the line-up bats for both teams, which would favor more Runs being scored in the 1st inning than any other inning. He also highlighted that MLB teams have scored in the 1st 29.85% on average.
To work out the NRFI probability over that period, we would multiply the inverse of that average. So, (1-0.2985)*(1-0.2985) = 49.21% That means you'd need to back the NRFI at better odds than +103 to break even in the long term. The problem is that sportsbooks usually offer the NRFI odds as the favorite rather than the underdog.
Let's round up this section with a graph that favors the YRFI backers and suggests that backing a YRFI is the best play generally.
But Captain Jack himself conceded that the NRFI odds from above only give you the average, and there is far more that goes into working out the NRFI probabilities for any given game. Let's look closely at the most likely MLB teams to feature NRFI outcomes this season.
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NRFI Statistics: Gaining an Advantage
Now that you're all familiar with NRFI bets, let's look at some MLB team stats so you can get ready to place your first NRFI/YRFI bets.
We've broken down each team's record for 2022, looking at the percentage they scored in the first inning but also their opponents' scoring percentage in the first inning.
| Team | 1st Inning Scored % | 1st Inning Opponent Scored % | NRFI Probability | YRFI Probability |
| Miami Marlins | 16.67% | 26.67% | 61.11% | 38.89% |
| Seattle Mariners | 22.82% | 22.15% | 60.08% | 39.92% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 22.82% | 24.83% | 58.02% | 41.98% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 25.68% | 22.30% | 57.75% | 42.25% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 17.45% | 30.20% | 57.62% | 42.38% |
| San Diego Padres | 24.16% | 24.16% | 57.52% | 42.48% |
| Atlanta Braves | 26.17% | 22.15% | 57.48% | 42.52% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 20.95% | 30.41% | 55.01% | 44.99% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 27.52% | 24.83% | 54.48% | 45.52% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 30.20% | 22.15% | 54.34% | 45.66% |
| Kansas City Royals | 26.85% | 27.52% | 53.02% | 46.98% |
| NY Mets | 33.11% | 22.52% | 51.83% | 48.17% |
| NY Yankees | 33.78% | 22.97% | 51.01% | 48.99% |
| Chicago White Sox | 24.83% | 32.21% | 50.96% | 49.04% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 32.21% | 24.83% | 50.96% | 49.04% |
| Chicago Cubs | 32.89% | 24.16% | 50.90% | 49.10% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 26.67% | 30.67% | 50.84% | 49.16% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 32.00% | 26.00% | 50.32% | 49.68% |
| LA Angels | 28.86% | 29.53% | 50.13% | 49.87% |
| LA Dodgers | 36.24% | 21.48% | 50.06% | 49.94% |
| Boston Red Sox | 27.03% | 31.76% | 49.79% | 50.21% |
| Detroit Tigers | 19.46% | 38.26% | 49.73% | 50.27% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 31.54% | 27.52% | 49.62% | 50.38% |
| Houston Astros | 36.00% | 22.67% | 49.49% | 50.51% |
| San Fransico Giants | 31.76% | 27.70% | 49.34% | 50.66% |
| Minnesota Twins | 32.21% | 28.19% | 48.68% | 51.32% |
| Washington Nationals | 26.17% | 34.23% | 48.56% | 51.44% |
| Texas Rangers | 28.38% | 32.43% | 48.39% | 51.61% |
| Colorado Rockies | 26.17% | 36.24% | 47.07% | 52.93% |
| Oakland A’s | 26.17% | 36.24% | 47.07% | 52.93% |
Data taken from: TeamRankings (Accurate as of 09/22/22)
This is a great starting point, but you should also check out lineup construction, as those will significantly impact NRFI probabilities.
For instance, deGrom, Burns, and Cole are some of the names to look out for as solid pitchers who can consistently cause trouble for opposing teams favoring NRFI backers.
Based on our NRFI probabilities, the Miami Marlins are most likely to land your NRFI bet, with a probability of 61.11%. On the opposite side of the spectrum, the Oakland A's have an NRFI probability of 47.07%, so placing a YRFI bet on their games might be the better play.
The above statistics are only a fair representation of individual teams involved in an NRFI or a YRFI rather than specific match-ups.
Where can I place an NRFI Bet?
Given their growing popularity, most sportsbooks offer NRFIs these days. If you want to sign up with a new sportsbook, check out our rankings, where we've reviewed the biggest US sportsbooks.
But navigating your way to NRFIs or YRFIs bets can sometimes be tricky, so here is where you can find these bets on each sportsbook.
NRFI Bets at Fanduel
On FanDuel, select any MLB game and click on the 'innings' tab. You'll be able to find the NRFIs/YRFIs under '1st inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs'. The Under bet would be an NRFI here, while the Over bet would be a YRFI.
1st Innings: Over/Under 0.5 Runs
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NRFI Bets at Caesars
You'll find the NRFIs/YRFIs bets on any MLB game under 'Popular', which is the main tab. You must scroll down until you find the 'Any Run in 1st Inning' market.
A Yes bet is a YRFI, and a no bet is a NRFI.
Any Run in 1st Inning: Yes/No
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NRFI Bets at BetRivers
On BetRivers, select any MLB game and scroll until you find 'Inning 1' bets within the 'All' tab. Alternatively, you can also click on the 'Inning 1' tab if you scroll sideways on the MLB game menu.
You'll find the NRFIs and YRFIs under the 'Total Runs - Inning 1' market.
Total Runs - Inning 1: Over/Under 0.5
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NRFI Bets at BetMGM
On BetMGM, you'll find these bets under every MLB game's 'Innings' tab. The NRFI/YRFI market is 'Will there be a run in the 1st Inning?'.
Will There Be a Run in the 1st Inning? Yes/No
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NRFI Bets at Unibet
On Unibet, select any MLB game and scroll until you find 'Inning 1' bets within the 'All' tab. Alternatively, you can also click on the 'Inning 1' tab if you scroll sideways on the MLB game menu.
You'll find the NRFIs and YRFIs under the 'Total Runs - Inning 1' market.
Total Runs - Inning 1: Over/Under 0.5
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NRFI Bets at PointsBet
Similarly, on PointsBet, simply navigate to any MLB game and scroll to the '1st Inning' market under the 'Fixed Odds' Menu.
Total 1st Inning
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NRFI Bets at WynnBet
Wrapping up the list with WynnBet, who also offers NRFI bets. You can find them on any MLB game page under the 'Innings' tab. The market you are after is called '1st Innings Total Runs'.
1st Inning Total Runs: Over/Under 0.5 Runs
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The bottom line is that betting on NRFIs can be like flipping a coin, but if you do your research, you can find teams that would make it an optimal bet.
FAQ
What does NRFI mean in Betting?
NRFI (or 'ner-fee') stands for No Runs in the First Innings. NRFI bets are becoming increasingly popular in baseball. Thanks to the fast-paced action it gives bettors, it's no surprise fans are jumping on this trend.
How Often Does NRFI Hit?
So far in the 2022 season, the chances of a team recording an NRFI is 52.3%, it's worth noting a month ago this was 51.32%, a sign of a long season! Remember, this is an average across all teams. The Phillies, for example, have recorded a higher percentage (56.46%) when compared to the Washington Nationals (48.17%). It's worth referring to the sheet above for team specifics.
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Conclusion
NRFI bets are becoming increasingly popular as they provide bettors with action from the get-go. Still, you should understand that betting on NRFIs is similar to a coin toss, so don't expect to win every NRFI bet.
However, our analysis shows that the Phillies, Orioles, and Giants are teams who have a good record of delivering on NRFI bets.
What's your experience like with NRFI bets? If you're interested in more MLB betting picks, be sure to read our guide: How To Bet on Baseball, and visit our odds comparison tool to compare the sports odds and take advantage of the latest sportsbook sign up bonuses. latest odds.
