The Three Most Likely Golden Boot Winners To Line Your Pockets With Riches – World Cup Goalscorer Odds

The usual suspects lead the World Cup top scorer betting, but there is a potential value pick that’s flying under the radar.

World Cup Goalscorer Odds: Recommended Picks

  • Kylian Mbappe (France), +900 at PointsBet
  • Lionel Messi (Argentina), +1400 at Caesars Sportsbook
  • Richarlison (Brazil), +4000 at PointsBet

World Cup Goalscorer Odds Are Wide Open

The World Cup top scorer betting is always one of the most popular plays at the tournament. With the 2022 edition falling in the middle of the European season and so many question marks surrounding big nations, it feels like anyone can claim it.

Brazil is the favorite to win the World Cup (+500 at BetMGM), with fierce rivals Argentina (+700 at BetMGM) and the current world champions France (+700 at BetMGM) directly behind. Apart from 2014, every 32-team World Cup has seen a Golden Boot winner hail from a semifinalist or finalist, so paying attention to the contenders is worthwhile.


World Cup Goalscorer Odds Table

Here are the top 10 favorites to claim the World Cup Golden Boot.



Odds (Sportsbook)

Harry Kane


+700 (Caesars)

Kylian Mbappe


+900 (PointsBet)

Karim Benzema


+1100 (BetMGM)



+1400 (PointsBet)

Lionel Messi


+1400 (Caesars)

Cristiano Ronaldo


+1600 (PointsBet)

Romelu Lukaku


+1800 (Caesars)

Memphis Depay


+2500 (Caesars)

Vinicius Jr.


+2600 (BetMGM)

Lautaro Martinez


+2600 (BetMGM)


Kylian Mbappe A Leading Contender to Win The Golden Boot – World Cup Goalscorer Odds

Four years ago, Kylian Mbappe rose to superstardom by helping France win its first World Cup since 1998. In 2022, he’ll be leaned on again to help Les Bleus repeat as champions. 

France is missing its dominant midfield partnership of Paul Pogba and N’Golo Kante. Center-back Raphael Varane is also racing against time to be fit for the World Cup, so there’s no shortage of concerns from a French perspective.

However, there’s a reason why France is one of the three favorites to triumph in Qatar. The depth in quality, led by Mbappe, is palpable. Eduardo Camavinga and Aurelien Tchouameni will replace Pogba and Kante. William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano are in tremendous form with their clubs, so there are ready-made replacements all over the pitch. 


Plus, Mbappe has still scored during an inconsistent 2022, while coach Didier Deschamps figures out his best lineup again. The PSG superstar has four goals in 2022, more than any other French player.


France’s potential matchups further enhance Mbappe’s chances of claiming top-scorer honors in the knockout stage. Topping Group D would help the French avoid a heavyweight like Argentina in the round of 16, which helps Mbappe’s case.


World Cup Goalscorer Odds: The Contender

  • Kylian Mbappe, +900 (PointsBet)


Don’t Sleep On Lionel Messi In World Cup Swan Song – World Cup Goalscorer Odds

Lionel Messi recently revealed that the 2022 World Cup would be his last. What a moment that would be if he exited on a high of raising the trophy with Argentina.


Even at 35 years old with extra support these days, Messi is still the focal point for Argentina. His nine goals in 2022 are, by far, the most on the team entering the World Cup. 


Interestingly, the PSG star has scored six goals in 19 career World Cup matches. All of them have come in the group stage, so a strong start to the tournament could behoove Messi’s push for the Golden Boot.


Argentina is also built for a deep run like in 2014. La Albiceleste has allowed just two goals in their last 14 matches and still possesses lethal forwards like Lautaro Martinez, Angel Di Maria, and Nicolas Gonzalez. Long gone are the days of heavy Messi dependence.


World Cup Goalscorer Odds: The Sleeper

  • Lionel Messi, +1400 (Caesars)

Why Richarlison Is Brazil’s X-Factor – World Cup Goalscorer Odds

When everyone pictures Brazilian players in 2022, Neymar is one of the first names that comes to mind.


Few probably think of Richarlison, but this World Cup might change that. The Tottenham forward is recovering from an injury, and other wingers like Vinicius Jr. or Rodrygo appear to be more likely top scorers than Richarlison. 


However, provided Richarlison is fit for Brazil’s opening match against Serbia on November 24, he’ll be lining up with Neymar and co. The 25-year-old has started four of the last five games for the Brazilians, be it a center forward or a winger, with great success. Dating back to the start of World Cup Qualifying in 2020, only Neymar (14) has more goals than Richarlison’s 11 for Brazil. 


Topping Group G with Serbia, Cameroon, and Switzerland should be plain sailing, setting up Brazil for a deep run to the final if it lives up to its billing as World Cup favorites. That gives Richarlison plenty of opportunities to rack up the goals.


World Cup Goalscorer Odds: The Longshot

  • Richarlison, +4000 at PointsBet


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World Cup Top Scorer Betting: Conclusion


With England and Harry Kane struggling, Kylian Mbappe is a more attractive proposition with the most logical chance of progressing to the latter rounds at the World Cup. But Lionel Messi and Argentina enter Qatar in brilliant form, and Richarlison is sharing goals with Neymar. It’s tempting to lean on any of those three based on the tremendous odds.


World Cup Top Scorer Betting: Recommended Picks

  • Kylian Mbappe (France), +900 at PointsBet
  • Lionel Messi (Argentina), +1400 at Caesar’s
  • Richarlison (Brazil), +4000 at PointsBet

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)


Who gets the Golden Boot in the World Cup?

The Golden Boot at the FIFA World Cup is awarded to the player with the most goals during the tournament. If there is a tie, the winner is the player with the fewest goals on penalty kicks. The next tie-breaker is the player with the most assists during the tournament.


Who won the Golden Boot at the 2018 football World Cup?

During the 2018 FIFA World Cup, Harry Kane of England was the Golden Boot winner with six goals. The Silver Boot winner was Antoine Griezman of France, one of five players with four goals during the tournament.


Written by Peter Galindo,

Peter has over eight years of experience as a soccer writer covering the major European leagues and North American game. He keeps tabs on South America (he is half-Peruvian). He also writes about international soccer.


He has written for esteemed publishers that include Bleacher Report, LiveScore, Sportsnet, and the MLS. He also co-hosts the Northern Fútbol Podcast.