Point Spread Betting: Complete Guide, Calculator & Strategy

Point spread betting is the foundation of sports wagering in the United States. Whether you are watching an NFL Sunday, an NBA playoff game, or March Madness, spreads are everywhere. They let you bet on margin of victory instead of just picking a winner, which creates more balanced markets and more strategic opportunities.

This guide is for US bettors who want to understand point spread betting from the ground up. We will cover what spreads are, how they work, how to calculate payouts, what key numbers mean, and how to approach spreads with a clear strategy. You will also learn when to bet the spread versus the moneyline, how to manage your bankroll, and where spreads fit into more complex bet types like teasers and parlays.

By the end, you should have a complete understanding of point spread betting and the tools you need to make informed decisions. Sports betting is for adults only and should always be optional and affordable. If you choose to bet, understand the risks first.

What Is Point Spread Betting? (Basics in Plain English)

Point spread betting is a way to wager on sports that goes beyond simply picking which team will win. Instead, you are betting on whether a team will win or lose by more or less than a specific number of points set by the sportsbook.

The sportsbook assigns a spread to balance the betting action between the favourite and the underdog. The favourite gets a negative spread (like -7.5), meaning they must win by more than that amount for a bet on them to win. The underdog gets a positive spread (like +7.5), meaning they can lose by less than that amount and a bet on them still wins. If the underdog wins outright, the bet also wins.

Point spreads are designed to make both sides of the bet roughly equally attractive. This is different from moneyline betting, where you simply pick the winner and odds vary widely based on how strong the favourite is. With spreads, the odds are usually close to even money (around -110 on both sides), and your edge comes from predicting the margin of victory.

Understanding the basic mechanics of spreads is the first step. For a detailed, beginner-friendly breakdown, see our guide on how to read point spreads.

How Point Spread Betting Works (Favourites, Underdogs & the Vig)

Favourites and Underdogs Explained

When you look at a point spread, the team with the negative number is the favourite, and the team with the positive number is the underdog.

Example:

• Dallas Cowboys -6.5
• New York Giants +6.5

In this example, the Cowboys are favourites and must win by 7 or more points for a bet on them to cash. The Giants are underdogs and can lose by up to 6 points and a bet on them still wins. If the Giants win the game outright, the bet also wins.

The spread creates a handicap that theoretically makes both outcomes equally likely from a betting perspective. In reality, your job as a bettor is to find spots where you think the spread is mispriced and one side offers better value than the other.

Understanding the Vig (Juice) on Spread Bets

Next to the spread, you will see odds, typically -110 on both sides. This means you risk $110 to win $100, or $11 to win $10. The difference between what you risk and what you win is the vig or juice, which is how sportsbooks make money.

At -110, you need to win more than 50% of your bets to break even over the long term. Specifically, you need to win about 52.4% of the time to overcome the vig and start showing a profit.

Break-even win rate at -110:

• Risk $110 to win $100
• You need to win roughly 52.4% of bets to break even

This is why line shopping is so important. Finding the same spread at -105 instead of -110 lowers your break-even rate and improves your long-term profitability. Over hundreds of bets, those small differences add up.

What Covering the Spread Means

Covering the spread means your team exceeded the handicap requirement for your bet to win. This is also called betting against the spread or ATS betting.

If you bet on the favourite:

• They must win by more than the spread to cover
• Example: Cowboys -6.5 → they must win by 7+

If you bet on the underdog:

• They must lose by less than the spread, or win outright, to cover
• Example: Giants +6.5 → they can lose by 6 or fewer, or win

Teams that cover the spread frequently have strong ATS records, which can be useful context when researching bets. However, past ATS performance does not guarantee future results.

For more on what it means to cover the spread and how results are graded, see our Covering the Spread Guide.

Point Spread Calculator: Price Your Bet

Before you place any spread bet, it helps to see exactly what you stand to win based on your stake and the odds. A point spread calculator does that work instantly.

What the Calculator Shows You

A good spread calculator will let you input:

• Your stake (how much you want to risk)
• The spread (for example, -7 or +3.5)
• The odds (for example, -110, -105, or -115)

The calculator will then show you:

• Your potential profit if the bet wins
• Your total return (profit plus stake)
• The implied probability based on the odds

Try entering different stakes and odds into the calculator above. Notice how small changes in odds (from -110 to -105) affect your potential profit and break-even rate. This is why line shopping matters.

When to Use the Calculator

Use the calculator in these situations:

• When comparing lines at different books to see which offers better value
• When deciding whether to buy or sell points on alternate spreads
• When calculating how much you need to stake to hit a specific profit target
• When evaluating whether a spread or moneyline offers better value

For more advanced use cases and examples, check out our Point Spread Calculator Guide.

Key Numbers in Point Spread Betting (NFL-Focused)

Not all spreads are created equal. In football especially, certain numbers appear far more often as final margins than others. These are called key numbers, and understanding them is essential for making smart decisions about which spreads to bet and when to buy or sell points.

Why 3 and 7 Are Key in NFL

In the NFL, the most common margin of victory is 3 points, followed by 7 and then 10. This makes sense when you think about scoring:

• 3 points = field goal
• 7 points = touchdown with extra point
• 10 points = touchdown plus field goal

Because games often end with these margins, spreads that cross 3 or 7 are significantly more valuable than spreads that do not.

Example:

• A favourite at -2.5 is meaningfully different from -3.5
• A favourite at -6.5 is meaningfully different from -7.5

Even though the difference is just one point, crossing a key number changes how often the bet will win or push. Sportsbooks know this, which is why you will often see different odds on -7 versus -7.5.

The Value of the Hook (0.5 Points)

The hook refers to the half-point you see on many spreads, such as -7.5 or +3.5. The hook ensures there is a clear winner and loser on every bet by eliminating pushes (ties).

Around key numbers, the hook is especially important:

• At +3, if the underdog loses by exactly 3, the bet pushes
• At +3.5, if the underdog loses by 3, the bet wins

The half-point can make or break your bet in close games. This is why many bettors are willing to pay extra juice to buy a half-point when it crosses a key number.

When Buying Points Makes Sense – and When It Doesn't

Buying points means paying extra juice to move the spread in your favour. For example, you might buy a -7.5 down to -7 or -6.5.

When it makes sense:

• Buying across a key number (like moving from -7.5 to -6.5 in NFL)
• When the cost in juice is small relative to the gain in win probability

When it does not make sense:

• Buying across non-key numbers (like moving from -4.5 to -3.5)
• When the juice cost is too high relative to the value gained

For a detailed breakdown of key numbers and point-buying strategy, see our Key Numbers in Spread Betting Guide.

Point Spread vs Moneyline: Which Bet Makes Sense When?

One of the most common questions in sports betting is whether to bet the spread or the moneyline. The answer depends on the game, the odds, and your assessment of how the matchup will play out.

Simple Comparison

Point Spread:

• You are betting on margin of victory
• Odds are usually close to even money (around -110)
• Works well when the favourite is strong but not overwhelming

Moneyline:

• You are betting on which team wins outright
• Odds vary widely based on how big the favourite is
• Better for heavy favourites or underdogs you think can win

When the Spread Is the Better Choice

The spread is often better when:

• The favourite is moderately strong, and the moneyline price is too high to offer value
• You believe the favourite will win comfortably but are not sure they will blow out the opponent
• You like an underdog to stay competitive even if they do not win

Example:

• Team A is -7 on the spread at -110, but -320 on the moneyline
• If you think Team A will win but are not confident enough to risk $320 to win $100, the spread offers better risk-reward

When the Moneyline Might Be Better

The moneyline can make more sense when:

• You believe an underdog has a real chance to win outright
• The favourite is so strong that the spread is uncomfortably large
• You want simpler action without worrying about the margin

Example:

• Team B is +7 on the spread at -110, but +260 on the moneyline
• If you think Team B can win outright, taking +260 on the moneyline offers much better upside

For a complete breakdown of when to use each bet type, see our Point Spread vs Moneyline Guide.

Core Point Spread Betting Strategies

Point spread betting is not just about picking winners. It is about finding value, managing risk, and making disciplined decisions over the long term.

Finding Mispriced Lines

The foundation of any betting strategy is finding spots where you think the sportsbook has mispriced the line. This might come from:

• Deep knowledge of a specific team or league
• Spotting line movement that creates value
• Identifying situational angles like rest, travel, or motivation
• Understanding injuries and how they affect matchups

Your goal is not to bet every game, but to bet selectively when you have an edge.

Bankroll Management and Units

Bankroll management is what separates long-term bettors from those who go broke. A simple and effective approach is to bet a small percentage of your bankroll on each wager, typically 1-2%.

Example with a $1,000 bankroll:

• 1% per bet = $10 per wager
• 2% per bet = $20 per wager
• Never more than 5% on any single bet

Using units (where 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll) helps you stay disciplined and avoid chasing losses. Even the best bettors hit losing streaks, and proper bankroll management keeps you alive through them.

Line Shopping Across Multiple Books

Line shopping means comparing spreads and odds across different sportsbooks to find the best price. This is one of the simplest and most effective ways to improve your long-term results.

Example:

• Sportsbook A offers Cowboys -7 at -110
• Sportsbook B offers Cowboys -6.5 at -110

If you want to bet the Cowboys, taking -6.5 instead of -7 gives you an extra half-point of cushion at the same price. Over hundreds of bets, these small edges compound.

Most serious bettors have accounts at multiple legal sportsbooks in their state for this exact reason.

Tracking Your Performance by Sport and Market

Keep a simple spreadsheet or use a tracking app to log every bet you make, including:

• Date, sport, and league
• Team or market
• Spread and odds
• Stake and result

Over time, this data will reveal patterns. You might discover you are profitable in NFL but lose money in NBA, or that you do well on underdogs but poorly on favorites. Use that information to focus your action where you have an edge.

For more advanced strategy, including fading the public, middling, and situational betting, see our Point Spread Betting Strategy Guide.

NFL Point Spread Betting Tips

The NFL is the most popular sport for point spread betting in the United States. Weekly schedules, high betting volume, and tight spreads create opportunities for informed bettors.

Key Numbers and Line Value in NFL

As discussed earlier, 3, 7, and 10 are the most common margins in NFL games. This makes spreads that land on or near these numbers especially valuable.

Tips:

• Pay extra attention when spreads cross 3 or 7
• Avoid buying points across non-key numbers
• Look for value when lines move through key numbers due to public betting

Home Field Advantage and Divisional Games

Home field advantage in the NFL is worth roughly 2-3 points on the spread, though this varies by team and stadium. Divisional games often feature tighter spreads because the teams know each other well and play competitive matchups.

Tips:

• Factor in home field when assessing spreads
• Be cautious with large divisional favorites
• Look for undervalued road teams in divisional rematches

Weather and Outdoor Conditions

Weather can have a major impact on NFL games, especially late in the season. Wind, rain, and snow can suppress scoring and favor underdogs on the spread.

Tips:

• Check weather forecasts for outdoor games
• Consider taking unders in bad weather
• Fade large favorites in poor conditions

NBA Point Spread Betting Tips

NBA spreads behave differently from NFL spreads because of the faster pace, higher scoring, and the impact of star players and rest.

Pace, Rest, and Back-to-Back Games

NBA teams play many games in a short time, and rest is a major factor. Teams on back-to-back games, especially on the road, tend to struggle. Meanwhile, teams with multiple days of rest often perform better.

Tips:

• Check team schedules and rest days
• Fade teams on the second night of a back-to-back
• Look for value on rested home favorites

Late-Game Fouling and Spread Volatility

In the NBA, late-game fouling can cause spreads to swing wildly in the final minutes. A team winning by 10 can end up winning by 5 after intentional fouls and free throws. This creates both frustration and opportunity.

Tips:

• Be prepared for late swings that affect the spread
• Consider live betting if you can react quickly to game flow
• Avoid over-reacting to bad beats caused by late fouling

Key Numbers Are Less Rigid in Basketball

Unlike the NFL, key numbers in basketball are less rigid because scoring is more fluid. That said, spreads around 5-7 points are still meaningful, and half-point hooks matter.

Tips:

• Pay attention to spreads around 5-7 points
• Line shop aggressively since small edges compound over many games
• Focus on matchups and pace more than rigid key numbers

Other Sports: College Football, March Madness & More

College Football Spreads

College football features much wider spreads than the NFL because of the talent gap between top programs and weaker teams. Spreads of -20, -30, or even higher are common.

Tips:

• Be cautious with large favorites that may not cover
• Look for value in conference games where teams know each other well
• Pay attention to motivation in rivalry games and bowl season

March Madness and Tournament Basketball

March Madness is one of the busiest betting events of the year. Tournament basketball features high variance, emotional swings, and plenty of sharp bettors.

Tips:

• Focus on matchups and tempo rather than brand names
• Avoid overbetting early-round blowouts
• Manage your bankroll tightly across the full tournament window

MLB Run Line and NHL Puck Line

Baseball and hockey use fixed spreads called the run line (±1.5) and puck line (±1.5). These behave like point spreads but with different pricing dynamics.

Tips:

• Run lines and puck lines are priced like moneylines with a spread overlay
• Favorites on the run line offer better value than moneyline favorites in close games
• Underdogs on the run line lose value if you expect a one-run or one-goal game

Advanced Spread Concepts: Teasers, Alternate Lines & Live Betting

Once you are comfortable with standard spreads, you can explore more advanced bet types that build on the same principles.

Teaser Bets and When They Make Sense

A teaser bet lets you adjust the spread on multiple games in your favor (for example, moving a -7 to -1 or a +2.5 to +8.5) in exchange for lower payouts. Teasers are popular in football because they let you cross key numbers.

Example:

• Take a -7.5 favorite and tease it to -1.5
• Take a +2 underdog and tease it to +8

Teasers can offer value when used correctly, but they require understanding of key numbers and proper pricing. For more, see our Teaser Betting Guide and Wong Teaser Strategy.

Alternate Spreads and When to Use Them

Alternate spreads let you buy or sell points in exchange for different odds. For example, instead of betting Cowboys -7 at -110, you might take Cowboys -6 at -140 or Cowboys -8 at +110.

When to use alternate spreads:

• When you want to cross a key number and are willing to pay the juice
• When you believe a team will win or lose by a larger margin than the standard spread

For more on alternate spreads, see our Alternative Spreads Guide.

Live Betting on Spreads

Live betting lets you wager on spreads as the game unfolds. Lines move constantly based on scoring, momentum, and time remaining. Live spreads can offer value if you can assess the game flow better than the market.

Tips:

• Have a clear plan before the game starts
• Avoid emotional decisions based on one play or drive
• Use live betting selectively, not as your primary strategy

Responsible Gambling and Legal Considerations

Point spread betting should be entertainment, not a way to make money or solve financial problems. Before you bet, make sure you understand the risks and are betting responsibly.

Where Point Spread Betting Is Legal

Point spread betting is legal only at licensed US sportsbooks in states where online sports betting has been legalized. You must be 21+ and physically located in a legal state to place bets.

Always bet with regulated operators, and check your state's specific rules. Some states have restrictions on college betting or certain bet types.

Bankroll Management and Staying in Control

Set clear limits before you start betting:

• Deposit limits
• Loss limits
• Time limits

Most regulated sportsbooks offer built-in tools to help you manage your play, including self-exclusion options. Use these tools proactively.

Betting should stay a hobby. If you feel it is affecting your relationships, work, or finances, reach out for help as soon as possible.

FAQs: Point Spread Betting

What is point spread betting?

Point spread betting is a way to wager on sports by betting on the margin of victory instead of just picking the winner. The favourite must win by more than the spread, while the underdog can lose by less than the spread or win outright.

How do you bet against the spread?

Betting against the spread means wagering on whether a team will cover the spread. If you bet on a favourite, they must win by more than the spread. If you bet on an underdog, they must lose by less than the spread or win the game.

What does -7 mean in point spread betting?

A -7 spread means the favourite must win by more than 7 points for a bet on them to win. If they win by exactly 7, the bet pushes and your stake is returned. If they win by fewer than 7 or lose, the bet loses.

How much do you win on a point spread bet?

At standard -110 odds, you risk $110 to win $100, or $11 to win $10. If your bet wins, you receive your original stake back plus your profit. Use our calculator above to see exact payouts for any stake and odds.

Is it better to bet the spread or moneyline?

It depends on the game and your assessment. The spread is often better for moderately strong favorites where the moneyline price is too high. The moneyline is better when you think an underdog can win outright or when the favorite is overwhelming.

What are key numbers in point spread betting?

Key numbers are margins that occur more frequently than others in a sport. In the NFL, 3, 7, and 10 are the most common margins because of how football is scored. Spreads that cross these numbers are more valuable.

Can you lose money even if your team wins?

Yes. If you bet on a favourite and they win but do not cover the spread, you lose the bet. For example, if you bet Cowboys -7 and they win by only 3, your bet loses even though the Cowboys won the game.

What is the vig on a point spread bet?

The vig (or juice) is the fee the sportsbook charges for taking your bet. At standard -110 odds, the vig is built into the price you pay. You risk more than you stand to win, which is how sportsbooks make money. The vig is why you need to win more than 50% of your bets to be profitable.

Where can I bet point spreads legally?

Point spread betting is legal at licensed sportsbooks in states where online sports betting is regulated. You must be 21+ and located in a legal state. Always use regulated operators and check your state's specific rules before betting.

What is the best point spread betting strategy?

There is no single best strategy. Successful spread betting requires finding value, managing your bankroll, line shopping, and staying disciplined over the long term. Focus on sports and markets you understand well, and avoid chasing losses or overbetting.