• Explosive pass split: ARI D allows 2.1% explosive passes (94th; 47 opp passes) vs CAR O creates 2.9% (12th; 34 dropbacks).

• Run game path: ARI explosive run rate 7.4% (81st; 27 rushes) vs CAR allows 6.3% explosive runs (23rd; 32 opp rushes).

• Pass-rush vs protection: ARI sack rate allowed 14.7% (3rd; 34 dropbacks), but CAR sack rate generated is bottom tier (9th; 31 opp dropbacks, small sample).

• Pace lever: CAR no-huddle 11.8% (88th; 76 snaps) could raise play count, but efficiency remains the question.

• Moneyline context: ARI -323 reflects a clear market lean to the home side.

• Small-sample caveat: Several Week-2 traits (e.g., red-zone rates) carry limited snaps. Treat edges as directional, not certain.

• Spread (anchor): Cardinals -4.0 (-182). Short number vs the matchup edges, but heavy juice. If you want a better price, Cardinals -4.5 (-156) is available.

• Total (anchor): 48.5 with Under at -208 / Over at +138. Lean Under at the anchor, but the juice is steep; alternatives like Under 46.5 (-169) or Under 45.5 (-154) exist.

• Moneyline: Cardinals -323 if you prefer a safer side or a parlay leg.

• Panthers Team Total Under 17.5 (-127): Fits the explosives split (ARI pass D strength vs CAR lack of big plays).

• James Conner Anytime TD (-164): ARI run explosives (7.4%) vs CAR run D leak (6.3%) supports touchdown equity.

• Bryce Young Under 201.5 pass yds (-118): ARI’s explosive-pass suppression plus CAR’s low explosive pass rate.

• Kyler Murray Over 1.5 pass TDs (+106): Plus-money tied to an offence with viable red-zone pieces (small-sample RZ note).

• Trey Benson Over 34.5 rush yds (-120): Secondary back but live against a defence allowing chunk runs.

• Trey McBride Over 6.5 receptions (-104): Chain-mover profile if ARI leans underneath.

Arizona owns the cleaner paths. The Cardinals limit explosive passes and can run with burst. Carolina has not shown big-play punch, and injuries on both lines add stress. That lines up with a market that favours Arizona at home.

The one thing that could wobble a cover is Arizona’s protection. The Cards’ sack rate allowed is ugly. But Carolina’s pass-rush finish rate has been poor, which may blunt that weakness.

Our card: Cardinals -4.0 (-182) as the anchor spread, with a secondary nod to -4.5 (-156) if you want a better price. Lean Under 48.5 at the anchor, but the juice is heavy; scaling down to a lower total at a fairer price is reasonable. Panthers Team Total Under 17.5 (-127) lines up with the matchup.

For props, Conner Anytime TD (-164), Young Under 201.5 (-118), Murray Over 1.5 TDs (+106), Benson Over 34.5 rush (-120), and McBride Over 6.5 receptions (-104) fit the data. Keep stakes modest. It’s still early, and small samples can swing.