• Baltimore’s offense ranks high in explosive run rate (5.8%, 84th pct). That stresses a Bears defense that has allowed explosive runs at a 6.0% rate (16th pct).

• The Ravens own a league-best big-play touchdown rate (45.5%, 100th pct on a small 22-play sample). Chicago’s explosive pass allowed rate is mid-pack (7.6%, 41st pct).

• Chicago’s defense is a takeaway machine (4.5% turnover rate, best in NFL) and elite on third down (69.0% stop rate, 97th pct). That can stall Baltimore’s longer drives (Ravens long-drive efficiency 68.8%, 6th pct).

• Baltimore’s pass rush has struggled to finish (pressure-to-sack conversion 2.6%, 6th pct; sack rate generated 2.6%, 6th pct). That can give Williams cleaner pockets or lanes to escape.

• Injuries carry real variance. For Baltimore: Lamar Jackson, Ronnie Stanley, Tyler Linderbaum, and several DBs are Questionable. For Chicago: D’Andre Swift, DJ Moore, Cole Kmet, and multiple OL/DB starters are Questionable. Availability at 90 minutes to kick could tilt matchups.

• Spread anchor: Ravens -6.5 at -119. The number bakes in Lamar playing, but remember he’s listed Questionable. If he’s limited, variance rises.

• Total anchor: Over 49.5 at -115. Baltimore’s big-play TD rate is sky-high and Chicago owns above-average explosive pass metrics; both teams also have red-zone volatility that can swing points.

• Team totals: Ravens over 27.5 at -119 or under 27.5 at -120. If Jackson is mobile and OL pieces go, the over is live; if inactives pile up, the under protects you from a grind.

• Prop: Lamar Jackson over 29.5 rushing yards at -122. Bears’ elite third-down defense often forces off-script plays, and Chicago has allowed a higher rate of explosive runs.

• Prop: DJ Moore over 42.5 receiving yards at -118. Ravens allow explosive passes at 8.8%, and several Baltimore corners are on the injury report. Note Moore is Questionable; check status.

• Alt TD market: Mark Andrews anytime TD +188 or Lamar Jackson anytime TD +220. Plus money on Baltimore’s primary red-zone targets/rushers, but price comes with injury volatility and small-sample scoring swings.

Chicago is no soft landing. The Bears win with takeaways and stops on third down. That profile travels well. If Swift and Moore are active, they can balance the field and keep Baltimore’s defense honest.

From a numbers view, our anchors are Ravens -6.5 (-119) and Over 49.5 (-115). Both teams flash explosive traits, but the injury lists on each side demand caution. If late inactives hit the Ravens’ OL or the Bears’ key skill guys, the game script can shift fast.

Bottom line: Expect urgency, QB runs, and a few deep shots. Baltimore needs the bounce-back. Chicago won’t make it easy. Manage juice and respect the injury volatility before you fire any bets.