• Run script favours Minnesota: Explosive Run Rate 8.3% (91st pct) meets a Bengals front that’s been vulnerable to explosives (run allowed — 84th pct exposure).

• Money-down edge to Vikings D: Minnesota’s defence owns a 65.2% third-down stop rate (83rd pct); Cincinnati’s offence has a 50.0% conversion (70th pct, small sample) that may regress on the road.

• Vertical chances if Jefferson plays: Vikings Deep Pass Expl 7.0% (72nd pct) faces a Bengals unit allowing 6.7% explosive passes (62nd pct); Jefferson is Questionable, which adds uncertainty.

• Protection stress both sides: Vikings Sack Rate Allowed 15.6% and Bengals Sack Rate Allowed 11.5% (9th pct) suggest pressure can derail drives, especially with LT Christian Darrisaw Out and Bengals interior injuries.

• Game shape leans slower/shorter: Minnesota’s under-centre tendency (64.7%) and Cincinnati’s limited deep punch (deep-pass explosiveness 6th pct) point to longer fields and fewer chunk flips.

• Turnover pulse matters: Bengals Turnover Generation 2.8% (84th pct) can tilt short fields if Minnesota’s QB play is rusty; tie this to Harrison Smith Out on the other side for balance in the secondary.

• Vikings -3.0 (-115): Backed by MIN third-down stop 65.2% (83rd pct) vs CIN sack-rate-allowed 11.5% (9th pct), which can stall Bengals drives.

• Under 44.0 (-147): Run-lean MIN under-centre 64.7% + CIN deep-pass struggles (6th pct) and QB uncertainty support a lower-scoring script; note the heavier juice.

• Vikings team total Over 22.5 (-119): Explosive Run Rate 8.3% (91st pct) vs CIN explosive-run allowed exposure (84th pct) raises red-zone chances.

• Bengals team total Under 19.5 (-111): MIN third-down stop 65.2% (83rd pct) plus CIN -3rd-down sack risk (11.5% allowed) cap scoring at 3s over 7s.

• Jordan Mason anytime TD (-175): Matchup funnels to ground work; see explosive-run edge listed above.

• T.J. Hockenson over 35.5 receiving (-116): QB-in-flux often checks down; play-action from under-centre can free the tight end over the middle.

(Always price-shop. Props tied to Questionable players carry elevated variance; reduce stake or wait for final statuses.)

Minnesota have the more stable path: run the ball, lean on under-centre play-action, and let a good third-down defence squeeze field position. The trenches — and health — are the swing factors with LT Christian Darrisaw Out and the Vikings’ centre situation Questionable.

Cincinnati need explosives to keep up, but their deep game hasn’t lit yet, and their sack-rate-allowed (11.5%) invites negative plays. If Minnesota’s receivers are healthy, a few verticals can punish a Bengals defence that’s been average vs explosives (6.7% allowed).

The market mirrors that read: Vikings -3.0 (-115) with a 44.0 total tilts toward a controlled, mid-scoring contest. Expect runs, play-action, and a field-position grind.

Bottom line: Minnesota have the cleaner script at home, but Questionable tags (notably Justin Jefferson and Vikings QB) inject variance. Keep bets sized to risk, respect the juice, and be ready to adjust if inactives shift the matchup an hour before kick.