Game Preview of Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens. Week 2 of 2025 NFL Season
CLE
BAL
Game Preview
Cleveland visits Baltimore on Sunday, 14 September (1:00 PM ET) at M&T Bank Stadium. The current anchor is Ravens -9.5 (-172) with a total of 47.5 (Over +110 / Under -161). That’s a big number for an AFC North game, but Baltimore’s offence brings real pop.
The Ravens’ run game is the headline. They’ve hit explosive runs on 14.3% of carries (97th percentile, small early sample n=28). Cleveland can answer with heat up front. The Browns convert pressures into sacks at 11.5% (88th pct, n=26), and Baltimore’s offence has allowed a 9.5% sack rate so far (n=21).
Through the air, Baltimore can create chunk plays, but the defence has sprung leaks. The Ravens have allowed explosive passes on 15.2% of opponent attempts (9th pct, n=46). That gives Joe Flacco a path if Cleveland needs to chase. The Browns’ kicking is a concern, though: 50% field-goal rate (n=2, very small sample) can stall scoring.
Injuries add variance. Lamar Jackson (Questionable) tilts both the spread and the total. DeAndre Hopkins and Patrick Ricard are also Questionable. For Cleveland, C Ethan Pocic and CB Greg Newsome are Questionable. Monitor inactives; volatility is higher if Lamar is limited.
Current Season Form
CLE
AwayBAL
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-07 | @ BUF | L 40-41 | W +-1.5 | o50.5 |
| 2025-01-19 | @ BUF | L 25-27 | L -1.5 | o51.5 |
| 2025-01-11 | vs PIT | W 28-14 | W +9.5 | u44.5 |
| 2025-01-04 | vs CLE | W 35-10 | W +19.5 | o42.5 |
| 2024-12-25 | @ HOU | W 31-2 | W +-5.5 | u46.5 |
| 2024-12-21 | vs PIT | W 34-17 | W +7.0 | o44.5 |
| 2024-12-15 | @ NYG | W 35-14 | W +-16.5 | o43.5 |
| 2024-12-01 | vs PHI | L 19-24 | L 3.0 | u50.0 |
| 2024-11-25 | @ LAC | W 30-23 | W +-3.0 | o51.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | @ PIT | L 16-18 | W +-3.0 | u48.0 |
Key Insights
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Ravens explosive run rate: 14.3% (97th pct, n=28) Baltimore’s biggest edge.
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Browns finish pressures: 11.5% pressure-to-sack (88th pct, n=26) vs BAL sack rate allowed 9.5% (n=21).
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Ravens allow explosive passes: 15.2% (9th pct, n=46) Browns can find chunk gains.
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Third-down quality on both sides: CLE 56.3% (94th pct, n=16); BAL 54.5% (91st pct, n=11).
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Big-play TD rate: BAL 50.0% (95th pct, n=8) note very small sample.
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Browns FG accuracy: 50.0% (n=2) vs Ravens 100% (n=2) both tiny samples, but late-game totals/ATS matter.
Betting Insights
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Spread (anchor): Lean Ravens -9.5 (-172). Edge is their run game (14.3% explosive) and sustained third-downs (54.5%). Juice is heavy; big numbers are vulnerable to backdoors.
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Total (anchor): Lean Under 47.5 (-161). Browns’ explosive rates on offence are modest and their FG rate is shaky (small sample). Juice warning.
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Joe Flacco Over 235.5 pass yards (-120): Price is fair vs a defence allowing 15.2% explosive passes (n=46).
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Jerry Jeudy Over 54.5 receiving yards (-120): Matches Baltimore’s downfield leak; one play can swing it.
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Lamar Jackson Over 46.5 rushing yards (-122): Explosive ground profile supports it; note Questionable tag = higher variance.
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Mark Andrews Anytime TD (+148): Red-zone chain-mover tied to BAL’s strong third-down rate (54.5%).
Final Summary
Baltimore is rightly favoured at home. The Ravens’ run game has early-season burst, and their offence converts third downs. Those traits support a chalky angle on the spread, even at a big number. The concern is late-game variance if Cleveland’s rush can get home.
Cleveland’s best path is pressure and a few chunk shots against a Baltimore defence that’s allowed explosive passes at a high rate. If Flacco gets time, he can clear modest yardage marks. The Browns’ kicking wobble and centre/CB injuries add downside if drives stall.
With Lamar Questionable, volatility is real. If he’s close to full go, Baltimore’s rushing and play-action should carry the day. If he’s limited, live markets may favour Browns numbers late.
Bottom line: Ravens to win, spread lean to Baltimore at -9.5 if you trust their ground edge. Total lean Under 47.5 given Cleveland’s scoring profile and special-teams risk. Props that fit the data: Flacco yards, Jeudy yards, Lamar rush, and Andrews to find the paint. Bet sizes should respect the juice and the small-sample nature of Week 2.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 40 | #2 | 17 | #21 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 40 | #2 | 17 | #13 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 5 | #1 | 2 | #19 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 2 | #6 | 1 | #12 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 3 | #3 | 1 | #13 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 0 | #25 | 0 | #28 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 10 | #5 | 5 | #27 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 0 | #30 | 0 | #3 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 4 | #1 | 2 | #14 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 194 | #17 | 95 | #31 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 194 | #17 | 95 | #31 | |
| Passer Rating | 144 | #1 | 87.8 | #19 | |
| Passing Attempts | 19 | #32 | 23 | #6 | |
| Completions | 14 | #29 | 14 | #29 | 🏈 |
| Completion Percentage | 73.7 | #5 | 60.9 | #7 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 8 | #24 | 7 | #6 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 42.1 | #27 | 63.6 | #23 | |
| Longest Pass | 39 | #9 | 20 | #32 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 0 | #25 | 0 | #28 | |
| Receiving Targets | 19 | #32 | 23 | #26 | |
| Receptions | 14 | #29 | 14 | #4 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 109 | #12 | 49 | #4 | |
| YAC Average | 7.8 | #2 | 3.5 | #8 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 238 | #1 | 46 | #1 | 🏈 |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 238 | #1 | 46 | #31 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 29 | #9 | 23 | #11 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 8.2 | #1 | 2 | #32 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 10 | #6 | 3 | #5 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 3 | #1 | 0 | #25 | |
| Long Rushing | 49 | #5 | 8 | #31 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 3 | #1 | 0 | #25 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 1 | #3 | 0 | #31 | |
