• Browns’ pass rush can swing drives. Cleveland’s sack rate generated sits at 12.5% (100th percentile; sample 88). LT Taylor Decker is Questionable for Detroit, which adds volatility to protection.

• Lions’ rush mirrors that punch. Detroit converts pressure to sacks at 11.7% (97th; sample 94). The Browns’ offensive line is banged up with multiple starters Questionable and Dawand Jones on IR.

• Cleveland limits chunk passes. The Browns allow explosive passes on only 3.4% of attempts (94th; sample 87). That can force Detroit to string together long, efficient drives.

• Run-game stalemate favors the Browns. Cleveland has allowed explosive runs on just 1.3% of carries (92nd; sample 75). That directly tests Detroit’s two-back strength.

• Detroit’s defense is feast or famine vs the pass. The Lions allow a high explosive-pass rate (9.7%; 9th percentile; sample 93), but Cleveland’s offense ranks low in creating them (4.6%; 16th; sample 130). Weakness vs weakness could blunt Browns’ deep shots.

• Short-yardage edge for Detroit. The Lions stop 72.7% of third-and-short tries (100th; small sample 11). That can push Cleveland into longer downs where sacks and punts live.

• Anchor spread: Lions -9.5 (-120). Big number with late backdoor risk if prevent defense shows up.

• Anchor total: 46.0 with Over +104 and Under -139. The juice leans Under, but pressure and short fields can create outlier scoring pockets.

• Team totals snapshot: Lions 27.0 (Over -127, Under -112). Browns 16.5 (Over -120, Under -119). That split matches a defense-first Cleveland profile.

• Jared Goff under 237.5 pass yards (-164): Browns allow only 3.4% explosive passes (94th) and turn pressure into sacks at 12.5% (100th). High juice; size down.

• Joe Flacco under 212.5 pass yards (-120): Detroit ranks 97th in pressure-to-sack conversion (11.7%). Browns’ O-line injuries add variance against heat.

• David Montgomery under 48.5 rush yards (-120): Cleveland’s explosive-run-allowed rate is 1.3% (92nd) with strong goal-line stuffs (81st; small sample).

Expect a physical game. Detroit’s offense wants balance and play action, but Cleveland’s pass rush and coverage can force checkdowns and early punts. Protecting Jared Goff is the pivot.

On the other side, Cleveland must manage a thin line against a hot Lions front. If Detroit wins early downs, its third-and-short defense can close the door. That keeps the Browns chasing tough distances.

The market shows a double-digit spread and a total near 46. This often comes down to turnovers, sacks, and short fields. Those are high-variance events, so avoid overexposure at heavy juice.

As always, watch inactives. Several key Browns defenders and Lions linemen carry Questionable tags. Roles and outcomes can shift quickly close to kickoff.