• Pass rush pressure point: Denver owns a 12.9% sack rate generated and a 12.9% pressure-to-sack conversion (both 100th percentile). Dallas allows sacks on just 2.9% of dropbacks (91st percentile).

• Money down battle: Denver’s defense has a 70.8% third-down stop rate (100th percentile) vs Dallas’ 45.9% third-down conversion (84th percentile).

• Explosive runs vs run D: Dallas’ defense allows 7.2% explosive runs (10+ yards), just 3rd percentile. Denver’s run game posts a 4.7% explosive rate (56th percentile).

• Red-zone contrast: Denver’s offense scores TDs on 68.2% of red-zone trips (84th percentile) and its defense allows TDs only 35.3% (97th percentile).

• Dallas quick strike and long drives: Quick-strike rate 2.8% (84th percentile) and long-drive efficiency 91.3% (84th) show balance in both tempo and patience.

• Volatility watch: CeeDee Lamb (Q) and multiple Dallas DBs Questionable can swing matchups vs Denver’s WRs; Denver pass-rush health (Jonathon Cooper Q) matters for how aggressive they can be.

• Spread: Broncos –3.5 (–112). Home field plus elite third-down defense support a short favorite, but note juice and variance if DAL’s OL is healthier than listed.

• Total: Over 50.5 (–125). Both teams rate well in red-zone TD rate; Denver’s offense 68.2% in the red area supports points if drives finish.

• Broncos Team Total Over 26.5 (–123): Fits Dallas’ weak explosive-run defense and Denver’s efficient red-zone profile.

• Cowboys Team Total Over 23.5 (–115): Dallas ranks high in third-down conversion 45.9% and quick-strike rate; altitude can also aid kicking if drives stall.

• George Pickens Over 55.5 receiving yards (–116): Usage trend and a modest line; if Lamb is limited, Pickens’ target share rises.

• Javonte Williams Over 63.5 rushing yards (–118): Path through a defense allowing 7.2% explosive runs; game script favors late carries.

This matchup is strength on strength. Denver brings a ferocious rush and the league’s best third-down defense. Dallas answers with protection, precision, and a quarterback in rhythm. Small edges on money downs and in the red zone lean Denver at home.

Injuries are the swing factor. If CeeDee Lamb is near full go, Dallas’ ceiling rises. If Denver’s front is intact, the Broncos can dictate with pressure and keep Dallas behind the chains. Watch the Friday and Sunday statuses before locking props tied to those names.

From a numbers view, Broncos –3.5 (–112) and Over 50.5 (–125) both make sense, with team-total angles to match. Props line up with the trenches: Javonte Williams Over 63.5 and a Pickens Over 55.5 lean fit the traits and prices.

Expect a tight first half and a faster finish. Denver’s red-zone edge and home field should matter late, but Dallas has the firepower to trade scores. Bet the edges, respect the juice, and plan for variance in a high-leverage Week 8 spot.