Game Preview of Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers. Week 3 of 2025 NFL Season
DEN
LAC
Game Preview
The AFC West race gets early heat at SoFi Stadium on Sunday. The Chargers are 2-0 and hunting their first 3-0 start in years. The Broncos are 1-1 after a one-point loss and need a road win to grab the tie-breaker edge.
This game centers on protection. Denver brings a real pass rush with top-tier pressure and conversion to sacks. Los Angeles is without left tackle Rashawn Slater, which stresses Justin Herbert’s blind side. The Chargers still move the sticks well on third down, so the chess match on money downs is huge.
On the other side, Denver’s offense leans on balance. The Broncos have created efficient third-and-long answers and can run with J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey. That pairs well against a Chargers front that has been vulnerable to explosive runs.
Injuries will sway usage. For L.A., Khalil Mack is Questionable, and wideout Quentin Johnston is Questionable after a concussion. For Denver, tight end Evan Engram and wideout Marvin Mims Jr. are Questionable. Those tags add variance to downfield plays and red-zone design. Early-season sample sizes are small, so expect swings.
Current Season Form
DEN
AwayLAC
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-15 | @ LV | W 20-9 | W +-3.5 | u46.5 |
| 2025-09-05 | vs KC | W 27-21 | W +-3.0 | o47.5 |
| 2025-01-11 | @ HOU | L 12-32 | L -3.0 | o41.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | @ LV | W 34-20 | W +-7.0 | o42.5 |
| 2024-12-28 | @ NE | W 40-7 | W +-6.0 | o42.0 |
| 2024-12-19 | vs DEN | W 34-27 | W +3.0 | o41.5 |
| 2024-12-15 | vs TB | L 17-40 | L 3.0 | o46.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | @ KC | L 17-19 | L 5.0 | u43.5 |
| 2024-12-01 | @ ATL | W 17-13 | W +-1.0 | u47.0 |
| 2024-11-25 | vs BAL | L 23-30 | L -3.0 | o51.0 |
Key Insights
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Broncos pressure vs Chargers protection: Denver’s defense owns a 9.8% sack rate generated (89th percentile; sample 61). The Chargers have allowed sacks on 8.1% of dropbacks (25th percentile; sample 37).
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Third-down battle defines pace: L.A. converts 53.8% on third down (88th percentile; sample 13) while Denver stops 76.0% (100th percentile; sample 25). Small samples, big leverage.
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Run-game opening for Denver: Chargers allow explosive runs 5.9% (28th percentile; sample 17), which fits Denver’s two-back rotation.
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Red-zone texture: Denver’s defense has allowed TDs on 22.2% of red-zone trips (94th percentile; sample 9). L.A.’s offense has a 50.0% red-zone TD rate (41st percentile; sample 4).
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Scheme help for L.A.: Chargers’ scheme-based explosive rate sits at 6.9% (84th percentile; sample 29), boosting YAC and quick-hitter chances if protection holds.
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Availability matters: LT Rashawn Slater is IR for L.A.; EDGE Khalil Mack is Questionable. Denver’s Engram and Mims are Questionable, which could cap explosive pass calls.
Betting Insights
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Anchor spread: Chargers -3.5 (+108) vs Broncos +3.5 (-147). Plus money on the favorite at the hook reflects respect for Denver’s defense.
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Anchor total: 44.5 with Over -138 / Under +100. The Over carries heavy juice despite both defenses showing strong third-down traits.
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Chargers team total: 23.5 (Over -127, Under -112). Pricing implies mid-20s even with protection concerns.
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Broncos team total: 21.0 (Over -120, Under -119). Market expects Denver to stay in range with the run game.
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Prop lean J.K. Dobbins over 47.5 rush yards (-116): Matches up with LAC’s explosive-run leak (5.9%).
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Prop lean Keenan Allen over 53.5 receiving (-122): Third-down volume driver if Johnston sits or is limited.
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Prop lean Courtland Sutton over 57.5 receiving (-122): Tied to Denver’s 55.6% third-and-long conversion.
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Prop lean Justin Herbert under 247.5 pass yards (-119): Denver’s 9.8% pressure-to-sack and 76.0% third-down stops can suppress totals.
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Prop lean Bo Nix over 18.5 rush yards (-122): Scrambles can counter LAC’s middling pressure-to-sack (4.9%).
Final Summary
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 27 | #31 | 41 | #18 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 27 | #6 | 20.5 | #13 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 3 | #28 | 2 | #3 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 3 | #14 | 1 | #4 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 0 | #32 | 1 | #11 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 0 | #19 | 0 | #25 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 9 | #27 | 29 | #1 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 0 | #20 | 0 | #6 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 3 | #21 | 2 | #25 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 304 | #28 | 368 | #22 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 304 | #2 | 184 | #24 | |
| Passer Rating | 132 | #2 | 83.3 | #22 | |
| Passing Attempts | 34 | #32 | 62 | #17 | |
| Completions | 25 | #30 | 35 | #26 | |
| Completion Percentage | 73.5 | #3 | 56.5 | #3 | 🏈 |
| Passing 1st downs | 16 | #26 | 21 | #17 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 72.7 | #3 | 63.6 | #23 | |
| Longest Pass | 33 | #27 | 44 | #14 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 0 | #23 | 1 | #11 | |
| Receiving Targets | 34 | #31 | 58 | #17 | |
| Receptions | 25 | #30 | 35 | #7 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 134 | #29 | 195 | #14 | |
| YAC Average | 5.4 | #8 | 5.6 | #24 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 90 | #31 | 238 | #20 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 90 | #24 | 119 | #13 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 25 | #31 | 53 | #17 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 3.6 | #27 | 4.5 | #10 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 6 | #30 | 8 | #7 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 0 | #32 | 1 | #11 | |
| Long Rushing | 19 | #24 | 68 | #2 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 0 | #32 | 1 | #11 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 0 | #20 | 1 | #2 | |
