• Denver’s pass rush can flip drives. Sack rate generated is 10.4% (100th percentile). That pairs with a 69.7% third-down stop rate (97th percentile).

• New York want explosives on the ground. Their explosive run rate is 13.0% (100th percentile). Denver allow explosive runs at only 1.9% (91st percentile). That duel may decide early momentum.

• Jets’ passing explosiveness has lagged. Deep pass explosive rate sits at 2.4% (12th percentile), while overall explosive pass rate is 6.0% (27th percentile).

• Broncos’ pass protection has been efficient. Sack rate allowed is just 2.2% (97th percentile), even with a conservative fourth-down profile.

• Secondary health matters for New York. Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter II are listed as Questionable. That intersects with Denver’s scheme-driven explosive rate (4.1%, 70th percentile).

• Quarterback availability shapes the Jets’ approach. Fields is Questionable after a concussion. If active, his legs could mitigate pressure, but sustained passing success has been limited (third-and-long conversion 17.2%, 19th percentile).

• Spread focus: Broncos -7.0 at -122. If you prefer a half-point either way, -6.5 at -123 or -7.5 at -118 are listed.

• Total focus: 43.5 is the clearest pivot. Under 43.5 at -115 correlates with Denver’s third-down defence and the Jets’ receiver/CB injuries.

• Jets team total under 17.0 at -127 ties to Denver’s red-zone defence (RZ TD allowed 26.7%, 97th percentile) and New York’s third-down issues (34.4%).

• First-half total lean: Under 22.5 at -116. The Jets have started slowly, and Denver’s defence typically wins early downs.

• Player props (use caution with Questionable tags):

  • Breece Hall under 66.5 rushing yards (-120): Denver limit explosive runs (1.9%).

  • Justin Fields under 193.5 passing yards (-119): third-down pressure and his Q tag.

  • Courtland Sutton over 62.5 receiving yards (-122): Jets allow explosive passes at 10.9% (poor percentile).

  • J.K. Dobbins over 67.5 rushing yards (-119): Jets allow a higher rate of explosive runs; note Broncos G Ben Powers Doubtful.

Denver bring the cleaner profile into London. The Broncos rush the passer, win third down, and protect their own quarterback. Those edges travel well in a neutral-site game. If they avoid negative plays without Ben Powers, their offence should be efficient enough.

The Jets must hit chunk gains on the ground to stay on schedule. That is their best trait, but it meets a Broncos front that has limited long runs. If New York are pushed into third-and-long, pressure becomes a problem and drives stall.

Lower variance suits Denver. With multiple Jets listed as Questionable on offence and in the secondary, New York’s margin narrows. If Justin Fields plays, his rushing can keep a few drives alive, but sustained passing success is still a question.

Our card lines up with the market shape in the data. Broncos at a converted touchdown favourite, a total in the low-40s, and a modest Jets team total. That framework assumes Denver’s defence sets the tone and the Jets’ explosive run game does not break the dam.