NFLGame PreviewsDEN VS NYJ Preview Week6 12-Oct-2025

Game Preview of Denver Broncos @ New York Jets. Week 6 of 2025 NFL Season

DEN logo

DEN

3-2-0
@
12OCT25
09:30am
NYJ logo

NYJ

0-5-0
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Game Preview

Denver face New York at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday, 12 October (Week 6). The Broncos arrive with confidence after a late rally last week. The Jets are still searching for a first win. This neutral-site game puts both teams under the spotlight.

 

On paper, it tilts toward Denver’s defence. The Broncos generate sacks at a top-tier rate and get off the field on third down. New York struggle to protect the quarterback and have not sustained drives. If that pattern holds, field position and time of possession favour Denver.

 

The Jets’ best path is the run game. They create explosive rushing plays at an elite rate. Denver have been strong at limiting big runs, though, which makes that strength-on-strength. If New York fall behind the chains, their deep passing has not threatened defences consistently.

 

Injuries add noise. Justin Fields is listed as Questionable with a concussion. Several Jets receivers and defensive backs are also on the report. Denver could miss guard Ben Powers, which matters for the Broncos’ ground game and protection. Expect a cautious start as both sides settle into the London setting.

Current Season Form

DEN logo

DEN

Away
Record:3-2-0
ATS:2-3-0
O/U:1-4-0
NYJ logo

NYJ

Home
Record:0-5-0
ATS:2-3-0
O/U:4-1-0

Head-to-Head Summary

Record:
3-2Winner logo
ATS:3-2-0
O/U:2-3-0

Past Results

DateOpponentResultATSO/U
2025-10-05vs DALL 22-37L 1.5o48.5
2025-09-29@ MIAL 21-27L 2.5o44.5
2025-09-21@ TBL 27-29L 6.5o43.5
2025-09-14vs BUFL 10-30L -6.0u47.5
2025-09-07vs PITL 32-34L -3.0o37.5
2025-01-05vs MIAW 32-20W +1.5o39.5
2024-12-29@ BUFL 14-40L 10.0o44.5
2024-12-22vs LARL 9-19L -3.0u47.0
2024-12-15@ JAXW 32-25W +-3.5o41.5
2024-12-08@ MIAL 26-32L 6.5o45.0

Key Insights

 

  • Denver’s pass rush can flip drives. Sack rate generated is 10.4% (100th percentile). That pairs with a 69.7% third-down stop rate (97th percentile).

  • New York want explosives on the ground. Their explosive run rate is 13.0% (100th percentile). Denver allow explosive runs at only 1.9% (91st percentile). That duel may decide early momentum.

  • Jets’ passing explosiveness has lagged. Deep pass explosive rate sits at 2.4% (12th percentile), while overall explosive pass rate is 6.0% (27th percentile).

  • Broncos’ pass protection has been efficient. Sack rate allowed is just 2.2% (97th percentile), even with a conservative fourth-down profile.

  • Secondary health matters for New York. Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter II are listed as Questionable. That intersects with Denver’s scheme-driven explosive rate (4.1%, 70th percentile).

  • Quarterback availability shapes the Jets’ approach. Fields is Questionable after a concussion. If active, his legs could mitigate pressure, but sustained passing success has been limited (third-and-long conversion 17.2%, 19th percentile).

 

Betting Insights

 

  • Spread focus: Broncos -7.0 at -122. If you prefer a half-point either way, -6.5 at -123 or -7.5 at -118 are listed.

  • Total focus: 43.5 is the clearest pivot. Under 43.5 at -115 correlates with Denver’s third-down defence and the Jets’ receiver/CB injuries.

  • Jets team total under 17.0 at -127 ties to Denver’s red-zone defence (RZ TD allowed 26.7%, 97th percentile) and New York’s third-down issues (34.4%).

  • First-half total lean: Under 22.5 at -116. The Jets have started slowly, and Denver’s defence typically wins early downs.

  • Player props (use caution with Questionable tags):

    • Breece Hall under 66.5 rushing yards (-120): Denver limit explosive runs (1.9%).

    • Justin Fields under 193.5 passing yards (-119): third-down pressure and his Q tag.

    • Courtland Sutton over 62.5 receiving yards (-122): Jets allow explosive passes at 10.9% (poor percentile).

    • J.K. Dobbins over 67.5 rushing yards (-119): Jets allow a higher rate of explosive runs; note Broncos G Ben Powers Doubtful.

 

Final Summary

Denver bring the cleaner profile into London. The Broncos rush the passer, win third down, and protect their own quarterback. Those edges travel well in a neutral-site game. If they avoid negative plays without Ben Powers, their offence should be efficient enough.

The Jets must hit chunk gains on the ground to stay on schedule. That is their best trait, but it meets a Broncos front that has limited long runs. If New York are pushed into third-and-long, pressure becomes a problem and drives stall.

Lower variance suits Denver. With multiple Jets listed as Questionable on offence and in the secondary, New York’s margin narrows. If Justin Fields plays, his rushing can keep a few drives alive, but sustained passing success is still a question.

Our card lines up with the market shape in the data. Broncos at a converted touchdown favourite, a total in the low-40s, and a modest Jets team total. That framework assumes Denver’s defence sets the tone and the Jets’ explosive run game does not break the dam.

Statistical Battle Boards

Viewing: NYJ Offense vs DEN Defense
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Total Points112#1684#31NYJ advantage
Total Points Per Game22.4#1916.8#2DEN advantage
Total Touchdowns12#176#1DEN advantage
Passing Touchdowns7#204#3DEN advantage
Rushing Touchdowns4#172#2DEN advantage
Other Touchdowns1#80#17NYJ advantage
Total Kicking Points34#2048#3DEN advantage
Total Two Point Conversions3#10#25NYJ advantage
Kick Extra Points7#286#31NYJ advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Net Passing Yards875#271001#23DEN advantage
Net Passing Yards Per Game175#28200#25DEN advantage
Passer Rating98.7#1383.3#26NYJ advantage
Passing Attempts153#21172#22NYJ advantage
Completions104#20100#21NYJ advantage
Completion Percentage68#1258.1#3DEN advantage
Passing 1st downs53#1752#16DEN advantage
Passing 1st Down %51.5#2759.8#22DEN advantage
Longest Pass33#3252#16DEN advantage
Passing Fumbles Lost2#81#18NYJ advantage
Receiving Targets148#21163#12DEN advantage
Receptions104#20100#12DEN advantage
Receiving Yards After Catch401#30515#15DEN advantage
YAC Average3.9#315.2#20DEN advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Rushing Yards722#3442#6NYJ advantage
Rushing Yards Per Game144#388.4#28NYJ advantage
Rushing Attempts133#15107#4DEN advantage
Yards Per Rush Attempt5.4#34.1#21NYJ advantage
Rushing 1st downs41#319#3🏈
20+ Yard Rushing Plays5#71#28NYJ advantage
Long Rushing43#1468#5DEN advantage
Rushing Fumbles5#71#28NYJ advantage
Rushing Fumbles Lost3#21#10NYJ advantage