• Protection edge for Denver: Broncos allow sacks on 1.4% of dropbacks (97th percentile). Eagles generate sacks at 3.8% (22nd). Clean pockets help a rookie on the road.

• Red-zone chess match: Eagles are 100% TDs in the red zone (11 chances). Broncos allow TDs on just 23.1% of red-zone trips (97th).

• Explosive-pass lid by Philly: Eagles allow explosive passes at 5.8% (73rd). Denver’s explosive pass rate is just 5.9% (27th), so big plays through the air are a tougher path.

• Run volatility for Philly: Denver are excellent at limiting explosive runs (1.1%, 94th). That challenges Saquon Barkley’s efficiency if lanes are tight.

• Situational football: Denver’s third-down stop rate is 67.3% (92nd). Philly’s third-down conversion sits 41.8% (73rd), but third-and-long conversion is only 17.9% (36th).

• Tempo wrinkle: Eagles lean into no-huddle (16.3%, 94th). That stresses Denver’s rotation if the Broncos can’t win early downs.

• Spread anchor: Eagles -4.5 (-110). Home form plus perfect red-zone rate support the favourite, but Denver’s defence keeps variance high.

• Total anchor: 44.0 with Under -125 / Over -110. Red-zone strength vs red-zone strength can lead to field-goal outcomes; juice shaded to the Under.

• Moneyline (90 mins only): Eagles -200, Broncos +168. Price implies moderate favourite; not a blowout profile.

• Team totals: Eagles 23.5 (Over -125, Under -114) and Broncos 19.5 (Over -120, Under -118). Market expects a 24–20 type script.

• Player props (prices from odds):

  • Saquon Barkley under 80.5 rush yds (-118): Denver’s explosive run allowed is 1.1% (94th pct).

  • Jalen Hurts anytime TD (-137): Philadelphia 100% TDs in the red zone.

  • Courtland Sutton over 58.5 recv yds (-118) or anytime TD (+178): If Denver protects, Sutton’s volume benefits.

  • Jalen Hurts under 192.5 pass yds (-120): Conservative pass profile, efficiency over volume.

  • Bo Nix over 18.5 rush yds (-122): Low sack conversion for PHI (3.8%) can turn pressures into scrambles, but note rookie variance.

Note: Any player listed Questionable carries volatility. Avoid props for players ruled Out.

Philadelphia have the better record and the home streak. Their red-zone perfection and no-huddle tempo are real edges. Still, Denver match up in important ways. The Broncos protect their quarterback, win third downs on defence, and limit explosive runs. That combination travels.

The market has adjusted off the early narrative. At Eagles -4.5, you are paying for that home edge and red-zone run. The total at 44.0 sits in a range where a few red-zone stops or field goals can send it under. Given the traits on both sides, this shapes as a one-score game with swing moments in the red zone.

Player markets offer paths that fit the data. Barkley’s rushing under 80.5 (-118) leans into Denver’s run-explosive prevention. Hurts’ anytime TD (-137) is supported by perfect red-zone finishing. Sutton’s receiving volume and Nix’s legs can show if Denver keep the pocket clean.

Bottom line: expect a tight script in a hostile stadium. Philadelphia’s finishing power keeps them in front, but Denver’s defence and protection should make this competitive to the whistle.