• GB can hit chunk passes. Explosive pass rate 11.7% (94th percentile; sample 154) with deep-pass explosive 7.8% (94th).

• GB limits shot plays on defense. Explosive passes allowed only 1.9% (97th percentile; sample 212), which caps Arizona’s quick strikes.

• Arizona’s run defense leaks explosives. Runs of 10-plus allowed at 6.8% (16th percentile; sample 146).

• Money downs favor GB’s offense. Packers convert third downs at 52.2% (100th percentile; sample 67).

• Pass rush vs protection. ARI sack rate generated 4.0% (16th; sample 247) vs GB sack rate allowed 5.1% (59th; sample 156) suggests a clean pocket for Love.

• Small-sample note. Big-play touchdown rates come from small counts for both teams (GB sample 20; ARI 19), so finishing long plays is volatile.

• Anchor spread: Packers -6.0 (-120). GB’s third-down rate 52.2% and ARI’s weak third-and-short stops 10.5% hint at drive stability at a key margin.

• Anchor total: 45.5 — Under -127 / Over -105. GB suppresses explosives on defense (1.9% pass allowed) and ARI’s QB/WR health is shaky, which leans Under but note the heavier juice.

• Packers team total 25.5 (Over -122 / Under -116). Third-down 52.2% plus red-zone TD 71.4% supports a slight lean Over, though price is a factor.

• Cardinals team total 17.5 (Over -120 / Under -118). With GB choking off explosives and multiple ARI pass catchers Questionable, Under -118 has a path.

• Jordan Love Over 229.5 pass yds (-119). ARI’s sack rate generated 4.0% gives Love time to target a high 11.7% explosive pass rate.

• Trey McBride Over 61.5 rec yds (-119). Healthy focal point who can benefit if ARI sustains 45.1% on third downs.

Reminder: Do not lock in player props tied to Questionable tags without a plan. Reduce stake or wait for inactives.

Green Bay matches up well. The Packers throw efficiently and create chunk gains. They also shut down explosives on defense, which forces long, mistake-free drives.

Arizona’s path depends on health. If Murray and key receivers go, the Cardinals can keep pace with quick game and tight end usage. If not, they will need long drives and a clean pocket, which the traits do not favor.

Our anchors are Packers -6.0 (-120) and Total 45.5 with a lean to the Under -127 due to GB’s explosive-prevention profile and Arizona’s injuries. If you prefer team totals, Packers Over 25.5 (-122) and Cardinals Under 17.5 (-118) fit the matchup. Price matters. Manage juice and be ready to adjust once the inactives list is final.