• GB explosive pass rate: 11.4% (97th pctile) and third-down conversion 49.4% (100th) point to sustained volume for Love.

• PIT defense: allows 7.1% explosive passes (69th pctile) with a 57.0% third-down stop rate (28th), leaving room for long GB drives.

• GB pass defense limits big plays — 3.2% explosive passes allowed (94th pctile) — curbing PIT deep shots that already sit at 2.8% (12th).

• Steelers’ goal-line defense is elite: 73.7% goal-line stuff rate (100th pctile), which can force GB to scheme short yardage, especially if Jacobs is limited.

• Warren out nudges PIT toward Rodgers’ timing game; GB is elite vs explosive runs (0.8% allowed, 97th pctile).

• Multiple questionable tags (Parsons, Kraft, Jacobs; several PIT defenders) add small-sample volatility to snap counts and roles.

• Spread: Packers -3.5 (–101). GB’s money-down edge lines up with a short number; Parsons’ status is a variance lever.

• Alt spread: Packers -3.0 (–119) if you want the key number, but note the extra juice.

• Total: Over 46.0 (–110). GB drive sustain plus PIT’s likely pass rate supports possessions; red-zone finish is the swing factor.

• Team totals: GB over 24.0 (–112); PIT over 20.5 (–119). Both mirror the market total; GB air explosiveness fits PIT’s coverage leaks.

• Jordan Love Over 239.5 pass yds (–119): Third-down engine drives attempts and yards.

• DK Metcalf Over 58.5 rec yds (–120): WR1 usage in a pass-forward game plan.

• Romeo Doubs Over 52.5 rec yds (–118): Watson out concentrates targets.

• Watchlist: Tucker Kraft Over 50.5 rec yds (–119) only if active — status check required.

The Packers’ consistency on money downs is the clearest edge. It fuels time of possession and creates more shots for explosives. That’s a tough ask for a Steelers defense that pressures well but has leaked chunk gains and hasn’t slammed the door on third down.

Pittsburgh still has Rodgers and a strong red-zone profile, but Warren’s absence narrows the rushing punch. If Frazier is limited, protection and third-down timing get stressed, pushing more quick-game throws into GB’s big-play-averse secondary.

Market-wise, a short spread favors the team with the cleaner down-to-down traits. The total near 46 can swing on a couple goal-to-go snaps. Mind the juice and the questionable tags; they can move both sides and props.

Bottom line: GB’s explosive passing and third-down edge give the visitors a slight advantage. PIT needs takeaways and goal-line stands to flip it. Without those, the Packers control tempo and sneak out a close win.