Common Prop Betting Mistakes to Avoid (2025 Guide)

Prop betting can be exciting and profitable, but it is also where many bettors make costly mistakes that drain their bankrolls and turn winning strategies into losing ones. From overbetting variance to ignoring vig and chasing losses, the errors that trip up prop bettors are predictable and avoidable once you know what to watch for.

This guide covers the most common prop betting mistakes and how to avoid them. We will walk through bankroll errors, correlation traps, line shopping failures, emotional betting, and responsible gambling red flags. By the end, you should have a clear checklist to help you bet props with more discipline and fewer regrets.

Sports betting is for adults 21+ only in legal US states. Always bet responsibly and never wager more than you can afford to lose.

Mistake 1: Overbetting Your Bankroll

The single most common mistake in prop betting is betting too much of your bankroll on a single prop. Props are inherently more volatile than spreads and totals, which means longer losing streaks and more variance.

Why Variance Matters More for Props

Player props depend on individual performance, which is less predictable than team performance. A single injury, substitution, or game script change can turn a strong prop bet into a loss.

Because of this variance, you need larger sample sizes to evaluate your performance and smaller stake sizes to avoid going broke during losing streaks.

Recommended Stake Sizes

A common guideline for prop betting is 0.5-1 percent of your total bankroll per bet. For example:

• Bankroll: $2,000
• Stake per prop: $10-$20
• Maximum props per day: 5-10 bets

Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never increase stake size to chase losses.

Mistake 2: Ignoring Vig and Line Shopping

Vig, also called juice or hold, is the sportsbook's built-in edge. On prop markets, vig is often higher than on spreads and totals, which means you need a bigger edge to break even.

How Vig Drains Your Bankroll

At -110 odds, you need to win 52.4 percent of your bets just to break even. At -115, you need to win 53.5 percent. Over hundreds of bets, that extra few percent compounds into real money.

Why Line Shopping Is Non-Negotiable

The same prop can be priced differently across sportsbooks. Even small differences in odds compound over time.

Example:

• Book A: Player points over 24.5 at -115
• Book B: Player points over 24.5 at -105

Betting at Book B saves you 10 cents of juice per bet. Over 100 bets, that is $10 in saved vig, which can mean the difference between profit and loss.

Always compare odds across multiple sportsbooks before placing a bet. For tools to help, see our Prop Bet Calculator guide.

Mistake 3: Betting Correlated Same Game Parlays Without Understanding Correlation

Same game parlays are popular because they offer big payouts, but they are also where many bettors lose money due to misunderstanding correlation.

What Is Correlation?

Correlation means that the outcome of one leg affects the probability of another leg. Positively correlated legs are more likely to hit together, while negatively correlated legs are less likely.

Example:

• Positively correlated: QB passing yards and WR receiving yards (same team)
• Negatively correlated: Team to win big and opponent player to go over yards

The Correlation Tax

When you stack positively correlated legs in a same game parlay, the sportsbook adjusts the combined odds to reflect the higher likelihood of all legs hitting together. This is often called the "correlation tax."

Most sharp bettors avoid same game parlays entirely because the pricing is too opaque and the vig is too high.

For more on same game parlay strategy, see our Prop Betting Strategy Guide.

Mistake 4: Chasing Losses

Chasing losses means increasing your stake size or betting more frequently after a losing streak in an attempt to "get even." This is one of the fastest ways to drain your bankroll.

Why Chasing Always Fails

Variance is normal in prop betting. Even the best strategies lose for long stretches. Increasing your stake size does not change your edge; it only increases your risk.

How to Avoid Chasing

• Set daily and weekly loss limits before you start
• Never increase stake size after a loss
• Take breaks after losing streaks
• Track your results to identify when you are betting emotionally

If you feel pressure to bet or increase stakes to recover losses, it is a sign to step back and reassess.

Mistake 5: Not Tracking Results

Many prop bettors place bets casually without tracking their performance. This makes it impossible to identify what is working and what is not.

What to Track

Record every bet in a spreadsheet with:

• Date, sport, player, market
• Odds, stake, result
• Profit/loss

Why Tracking Matters

Tracking helps you:

• Identify which sports, markets, and strategies are profitable
• Spot patterns of emotional betting or tilt
• Evaluate your performance over large sample sizes (100+ bets)

Without tracking, you are flying blind.

Mistake 6: Betting on Props You Do Not Understand

Betting on props just because they are available or because the odds look attractive is a recipe for losses.

Research Before You Bet

Before betting any prop, you should understand:

• How the stat is measured and graded
• Key factors that affect the outcome (usage, pace, matchup, game script)
• Historical performance and trends
• Injury and lineup updates

If you cannot explain why you are betting a prop beyond "it looks good," you should not bet it.

Mistake 7: Overestimating Your Edge

Many bettors think they have an edge when they do not. Just because you win a few bets in a row does not mean you have a sustainable advantage.

True Edge Requires Process

Edge comes from:

• Better projections than the market
• Line shopping for the best odds
• Discipline and bankroll management

It does not come from gut feel, hype, or hot streaks.

Mistake 8: Ignoring Responsible Gambling Principles

The most serious mistake is letting prop betting become a problem. Warning signs include:

• Betting more than you can afford to lose
• Chasing losses or increasing stakes to get even
• Betting when tired, stressed, or under the influence of alcohol
• Hiding betting activity from friends or family
• Using betting to solve financial problems

If you or someone you know shows these signs, reach out for help. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit the Problem Gambling Help page for resources.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the biggest mistake in prop betting?

The biggest mistake is overbetting your bankroll. Prop betting is volatile, and betting too much per prop leads to long losing streaks and bankroll ruin.

How much should I bet on player props?

Bet 0.5-1 percent of your total bankroll per prop. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Why do most prop bettors lose money?

Most prop bettors lose money due to high vig, overbetting, chasing losses, and lack of line shopping. Success requires discipline, research, and bankroll management.

Should I avoid same game parlays?

Most sharp bettors avoid same game parlays or bet them only in very small sizes due to high vig and correlation pricing. If you do bet SGPs, keep leg counts low and stakes small.

How do I know if I am chasing losses?

You are chasing losses if you increase your stake size, bet more frequently, or bet on markets you do not understand after a losing streak.

What is the best way to track prop bets?

Use a spreadsheet to record every bet with date, sport, player, market, odds, stake, result, and profit/loss. Track your performance over large sample sizes (100+ bets) to identify what works.