Pace of Play and Totals Betting Strategy: NBA and NFL Guide

Pace of play is one of the most predictive factors in over/under betting, especially in NBA and college basketball. Teams that play fast create more possessions, which leads to more scoring—pushing totals higher. Teams that play slow grind out games, suppressing scoring and favoring unders.

This guide explains what pace of play is, how it affects totals in NBA and NFL, where to find pace stats, and how to incorporate pace into your betting process. You'll also see real examples of how pace-based totals bets work.

Last updated: January 2025

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What Is Pace of Play in Sports Betting?

Pace of play (or tempo) measures how fast or slow a team plays.

How Pace Is Measured

NBA and college basketball:

• Possessions per game (the most common metric)
• Higher possessions = faster pace = more scoring opportunities

NFL:

• Seconds per snap (how quickly the offense runs plays)
• Plays per game
• Faster pace = more plays = more scoring opportunities

Key concept: More possessions/plays = more chances to score = higher totals.

Why Pace Matters for Totals Betting

Fast-paced teams:

• Run more possessions/plays per game
• Score more points on average
• When two fast teams play, the total is usually inflated

Slow-paced teams:

• Run fewer possessions/plays per game
• Score fewer points on average
• When two slow teams play, the total is usually lower

Example:

• Fast team (100 possessions/game, 115 PPG)
• Slow team (95 possessions/game, 105 PPG)
• If both teams play at the slow team's pace, the fast team might score only 110 instead of 115

Takeaway: Pace is predictive. If you can project the game's pace, you can project the total more accurately.

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How Pace Affects NBA Totals

In the NBA, pace is king. It's the single most important factor for predicting totals.

NBA Pace Stats: Where to Find Them

Best sources for NBA pace data:

• NBA.com/stats (official stats, free)
• Cleaning the Glass (advanced stats, subscription)
• Basketball-Reference.com (free, historical data)
• TeamRankings.com (free, sortable pace rankings)

What to look for:

• Possessions per game (league average is ~100-101)
• Offensive rating (points per 100 possessions)
• Defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions)

Fast-Paced NBA Teams (2024-25 Examples)

Teams that consistently play fast:

• Golden State Warriors: ~102 possessions/game, push the ball in transition
• Indiana Pacers: ~103 possessions/game, fastest team in the league
• Sacramento Kings: ~101 possessions/game, high-tempo offense

Why they push totals up:

• More possessions = more shot attempts
• Transition offense = easier baskets
• Both teams score more when the pace is fast

Example:

• Pacers (103 poss/game, 120 PPG) vs Warriors (102 poss/game, 118 PPG)
• Expected pace: ~102-103 possessions
• Projected total: 238-245 points
• Market total: 235.5
• Analysis: Over might have value if both teams push tempo

Slow-Paced NBA Teams (2024-25 Examples)

Teams that consistently play slow:

• Miami Heat: ~97 possessions/game, defensive-minded
• Cleveland Cavaliers (historically): ~98 possessions/game, grind-it-out style
• Memphis Grizzlies (historically): ~98 possessions/game, slow methodical offense

Why they suppress totals:

• Fewer possessions = fewer shot attempts
• Halfcourt offense takes more time
• Both teams score less when the pace is slow

Example:

• Heat (97 poss/game, 108 PPG) vs Cavaliers (98 poss/game, 110 PPG)
• Expected pace: ~97-98 possessions
• Projected total: 216-220 points
• Market total: 225.5
• Analysis: Under might have value if both teams slow the game down

How to Project Pace in NBA Matchups

Step 1: Find both teams' average pace

• Team A: 102 possessions/game
• Team B: 96 possessions/game

Step 2: Average the two paces

• Projected pace: (102 + 96) / 2 = 99 possessions

Step 3: Adjust for home court

• Home teams typically control pace slightly more than road teams
• If the slow team (96 poss/game) is home, the pace might be closer to 97-98

Step 4: Calculate projected scoring

• Team A: 115 PPG at 102 possessions = 1.13 points per possession
• At 99 possessions: 99 × 1.13 = 111.9 points
• Team B: 105 PPG at 96 possessions = 1.09 points per possession
• At 99 possessions: 99 × 1.09 = 108.4 points
• Projected total: 111.9 + 108.4 = 220.3 points

Step 5: Compare to market total

• Market total: 225.5
• Your projection: 220.3
• Analysis: Under at 225.5 might have value

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How Pace Affects NFL Totals

In the NFL, pace matters less than in the NBA, but it's still relevant.

NFL Pace Stats: Where to Find Them

Best sources for NFL pace data:

• Pro-Football-Reference.com (free, sortable by plays per game and seconds per snap)
• Sharp Football Stats (subscription, advanced pace metrics)
• TeamRankings.com (free, pace rankings)

What to look for:

• Plays per game (league average is ~64-66 plays)
• Seconds per snap (time between plays)
• Run/pass ratio (run-heavy teams play slower, pass-heavy teams play faster)

Fast-Paced NFL Teams (2024 Examples)

Teams that run more plays:

• Buffalo Bills: 68-70 plays/game, pass-heavy offense
• Miami Dolphins: 68-70 plays/game, up-tempo no-huddle offense
• Philadelphia Eagles: 67-68 plays/game, balanced but fast

Why they push totals up:

• More plays = more scoring opportunities
• Pass-heavy offenses are faster than run-heavy offenses
• Both teams get more possessions

Example:

• Bills (69 plays/game, 28 PPG) vs Dolphins (69 plays/game, 26 PPG)
• Expected pace: ~138 total plays (69 × 2)
• Projected total: 54 points
• Market total: 50.5
• Analysis: Over might have value if both teams push pace

Slow-Paced NFL Teams (2024 Examples)

Teams that run fewer plays:

• Cleveland Browns: 60-62 plays/game, run-heavy offense
• San Francisco 49ers: 62-64 plays/game, run-first approach
• Tennessee Titans (historically): 60-62 plays/game, grind-it-out style

Why they suppress totals:

• Fewer plays = fewer scoring opportunities
• Running the ball takes more time off the clock
• Fewer possessions for both teams

Example:

• Browns (61 plays/game, 20 PPG) vs Titans (61 plays/game, 19 PPG)
• Expected pace: ~122 total plays (61 × 2)
• Projected total: 39 points
• Market total: 41.5
• Analysis: Under might have value if both teams slow the game down

How to Project Pace in NFL Matchups

Step 1: Find both teams' average plays per game

• Team A: 68 plays/game
• Team B: 62 plays/game

Step 2: Average the two

• Projected pace: (68 + 62) / 2 = 65 plays per team (130 total plays)

Step 3: Adjust for game script

• If one team is heavily favored, the underdog might slow the pace to keep the game close
• If the game is expected to be tight, pace stays closer to average

Step 4: Calculate projected scoring

• Team A: 28 PPG at 68 plays = 0.41 points per play
• At 65 plays: 65 × 0.41 = 26.7 points
• Team B: 22 PPG at 62 plays = 0.35 points per play
• At 65 plays: 65 × 0.35 = 22.8 points
• Projected total: 26.7 + 22.8 = 49.5 points

Step 5: Compare to market total

• Market total: 47.5
• Your projection: 49.5
• Analysis: Over at 47.5 might have value

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How to Use Pace in Your Totals Betting Process

Step-by-Step Pace-Based Betting Framework

Step 1: Check team pace stats

• Look up both teams' possessions per game (NBA) or plays per game (NFL)
• Find their points per possession or points per play

Step 2: Project the game's pace

• Average the two teams' paces
• Adjust for home court/field and game script

Step 3: Calculate projected total

• Multiply projected pace by each team's scoring efficiency
• Add the two projected scores

Step 4: Compare to market total

• If your projection is significantly higher → over might have value
• If your projection is significantly lower → under might have value

Step 5: Check other factors

• Injuries (star scorer out = lower pace and scoring)
• Rest (back-to-back games in NBA = slower pace)
• Weather (NFL outdoor games with wind = slower pace)

Step 6: Use the calculator to check EV

• Enter your projection into our Over/Under Calculator
• See if the bet is +EV

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Real Examples: Pace-Based Totals Bets

Example 1: NBA Fast-Pace Over

Matchup: Pacers (103 poss/game, 120 PPG) vs Kings (101 poss/game, 118 PPG)

Step 1: Projected pace = (103 + 101) / 2 = 102 possessions

Step 2: Projected scoring

• Pacers: 120 PPG / 103 poss = 1.17 points per poss × 102 = 119.3 points
• Kings: 118 PPG / 101 poss = 1.17 points per poss × 102 = 119.3 points
• Projected total: 238.6 points

Step 3: Market total = 235.5

Step 4: Analysis: Over at 235.5 has value (3.1-point edge)

Actual result: 124-121 (245 points, over cashes)

Example 2: NBA Slow-Pace Under

Matchup: Heat (97 poss/game, 108 PPG) vs Cavaliers (98 poss/game, 110 PPG)

Step 1: Projected pace = (97 + 98) / 2 = 97.5 possessions

Step 2: Projected scoring

• Heat: 108 PPG / 97 poss = 1.11 points per poss × 97.5 = 108.5 points
• Cavaliers: 110 PPG / 98 poss = 1.12 points per poss × 97.5 = 109.5 points
• Projected total: 218 points

Step 3: Market total = 224.5

Step 4: Analysis: Under at 224.5 has value (6.5-point edge)

Actual result: 105-104 (209 points, under cashes)

Example 3: NFL Fast-Pace Over

Matchup: Bills (69 plays/game, 28 PPG) vs Chiefs (66 plays/game, 26 PPG)

Step 1: Projected pace = (69 + 66) / 2 = 67.5 plays per team (135 total)

Step 2: Projected scoring

• Bills: 28 PPG / 69 plays = 0.41 points per play × 67.5 = 27.5 points
• Chiefs: 26 PPG / 66 plays = 0.39 points per play × 67.5 = 26.6 points
• Projected total: 54.1 points

Step 3: Market total = 50.5

Step 4: Analysis: Over at 50.5 has value (3.6-point edge)

Actual result: 30-27 (57 points, over cashes)

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Common Pace-Related Mistakes

Mistake 1: Ignoring Pace Entirely

The error: Betting NBA totals without checking possessions per game.

The fix: Always check pace stats before betting NBA or college basketball totals. It's the most predictive factor.

Mistake 2: Assuming Pace Stays Constant

The error: Using a team's season-average pace without adjusting for opponent.

The fix: Average both teams' paces. The slow team will slow the game down; the fast team will speed it up.

Mistake 3: Overweighting Pace in NFL

The error: Treating pace as the most important factor in NFL totals (it's not).

The fix: In NFL, weather, injuries, and defensive matchups matter more than pace. Use pace as one factor, not the primary factor.

Mistake 4: Not Adjusting for Injuries

The error: Projecting a fast pace when the fast team's star scorer is out.

The fix: Adjust pace down if a star player is out. Teams slow down when they lose a key scorer.

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Summary

Pace of play is the most predictive factor for NBA totals and a useful factor for NFL totals.

NBA pace checklist:

• Fast teams (100+ poss/game) push totals up
• Slow teams (< 98 poss/game) suppress totals
• Project game pace by averaging both teams' paces
• Use points per possession to calculate projected totals

NFL pace checklist:

• Fast teams (68+ plays/game) push totals up
• Slow teams (< 63 plays/game) suppress totals
• Pace matters less than weather, injuries, and defensive matchups
• Use pace as one factor, not the primary factor

Where to find pace stats:

• NBA: NBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference, TeamRankings
• NFL: Pro-Football-Reference, TeamRankings

Next steps:

• Use the Over/Under Calculator to check EV on pace-based bets
• Read the Over Under Betting Strategy Guide for more advanced tactics
• Check our Over Under Betting Guide for fundamentals

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