Player Props Betting: Complete Guide to Player Prop Bets in the NFL, NBA & More

Player props betting has exploded in popularity across US sportsbooks. Instead of betting on which team wins or the final score, you are betting on individual player performances like passing yards, points scored, rebounds, or strikeouts. This shift from team-level outcomes to player-level stats creates more markets, more engagement, and more ways to bet on every game. But it also introduces complexity, higher variance, and more risk for bettors who do not understand how props work.

This guide is a complete introduction to player props betting for US bettors. We will cover what player props are, how they work, how odds and payouts are calculated, and whether they are legal in your state. You will also learn core strategy basics, see examples from NFL, NBA, and MLB, and understand how to use tools like calculators and odds comparison screens to make better decisions. By the end, you should have a clear foundation to bet player props responsibly and confidently.

Sports betting is for adults 21+ only in legal US states, and it should always stay optional and affordable. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit the Problem Gambling Help page for resources.

What Are Player Props? (Basics & Definitions)

A player prop, short for player proposition bet, is a wager on a specific statistic or outcome tied to an individual player rather than the final result of the game. You are betting on what a player will do, not on which team wins.

Common Types of Player Props (By Sport)

Player props vary by sport, but the most common types include:

NFL player props:

• Passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions
• Rushing yards, rushing touchdowns
• Receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns
• Anytime touchdown scorer, first touchdown scorer
• Field goals made, extra points made

NBA player props:

• Points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks
• Threes made, free throws made
• Points + rebounds + assists (PRA)
• Double-double, triple-double

MLB player props:

• Strikeouts, hits, home runs, RBIs
• Total bases, stolen bases
• Pitcher wins, earned runs
• NRFI (no run first inning), YRFI (yes run first inning)

NHL player props:

• Goals, assists, points
• Shots on goal, saves
• Anytime goal scorer

Each sport has its own popular prop markets based on scoring dynamics, stat availability, and bettor interest.

Player Props vs Team Props vs Game Props

It is helpful to distinguish player props from other types of prop bets:

Player props:

• Focus on individual player performance
• Examples: passing yards, points, strikeouts
• Most popular and widely available type

Team props:

• Focus on team-level stats or milestones
• Examples: total team points, first team to score, team with most hits

Game props:

• Focus on game-level events or outcomes
• Examples: will the game go to overtime, winning margin, longest touchdown

Player props are the most popular because they let you bet on your favorite players and create more granular markets than traditional spreads and totals.

How Player Props Work (Odds, Payouts & Book Behavior)

How Odds Are Set (Projection + Vig)

Sportsbooks set player prop odds by:

1. Projecting player performance based on historical data, usage, matchup, pace, and other factors
2. Converting the projection to a line (e.g., 275.5 passing yards)
3. Adding vig (juice) to both sides of the market to ensure profitability

For example, if a sportsbook projects a quarterback to throw for 275 yards on average, they might set the line at 275.5 and offer both the over and under at -110. The -110 on both sides means bettors must risk $110 to win $100, and the book keeps the difference as profit.

Over/Under Example With Simple Payout Table

The most common player prop format is over/under, where you bet whether a player will go over or under a specific line.

Example (for illustration only, not betting advice):

• Market: Patrick Mahomes passing yards
• Line: Over 275.5 at -110, Under 275.5 at -110
• Stake: $110

Payout table:

Outcome	Result	Payout	Profit
Mahomes throws 276+ yards	Over wins	$210	$100
Mahomes throws 275 or fewer yards	Under wins	$0	-$110
Mahomes throws exactly 275.5 yards	Impossible (half-point line)	N/A	N/A

Most sportsbooks use half-point lines to avoid pushes (ties). If you see a whole number line like 275, check your book's rules for how pushes are handled.

Introduction to Implied Probability and Why It Matters

Implied probability converts odds into a percentage chance of winning. It shows you what the sportsbook thinks the likelihood of your bet is, including the vig.

For American odds:

• Negative odds (e.g., -110): Implied probability = Risk / (Risk + Win) = 110 / (110 + 100) = 52.4 percent
• Positive odds (e.g., +150): Implied probability = 100 / (100 + Odds) = 100 / (100 + 150) = 40 percent

Implied probability is important because it helps you compare the market's estimate to your own projection. If you think a player has a 55 percent chance of going over a line, but the market implies only 52.4 percent, you may have found value.

Concept of Vig/Hold on Props and Why Props Often Carry Higher Hold

Vig, also called juice or hold, is the sportsbook's built-in edge. On any two-sided market, the combined implied probabilities of both sides will add up to more than 100 percent. That extra percentage is the vig.

For example, if both the over and under are priced at -110, the combined implied probability is about 104.8 percent. The extra 4.8 percent is the vig that the sportsbook keeps as profit.

Player props often carry higher vig than traditional spreads and totals, especially on same game parlays and less liquid markets. Books know that props attract recreational action and emotional betting, so they price accordingly.

To see the fair probability after removing vig, use a prop bet calculator with no-vig functionality.

Is Player Props Betting Legal? (US Overview)

Player props betting is legal for adults 21+ in states where online sports betting is licensed and regulated. As of 2025, more than 30 US states have legalized online sports betting, and most allow player props across major sports.

However, there are important state-level differences and restrictions.

High-Level Explanation of Regulated vs Offshore Books

Regulated sportsbooks:

• Licensed by state gaming authorities
• Subject to consumer protections, responsible gambling requirements, and oversight
• Examples: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, ESPN Bet

Offshore sportsbooks:

• Operate outside US jurisdiction
• Not licensed or regulated by US states
• Carry significant legal and financial risks, including no consumer protections

Always use regulated, licensed sportsbooks in your state. Offshore books may offer tempting bonuses or lines, but they are illegal in most states and carry risks of account seizure, fraud, and no recourse if disputes arise.

Explain That College Player Props Are Banned in Many States

Many states prohibit betting on college player props to protect student-athletes from harassment, coercion, and integrity risks. Even in states where college props are legal, sportsbooks may limit the types of props offered or the betting limits allowed.

States with college player prop restrictions (as of 2025):

• Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Virginia, and others have banned or restricted college player props
• Check your state's specific regulations before betting on college sports

Professional sports like NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL typically have no such restrictions, and player props are widely available.

State-by-State Differences (High-Level)

Each state sets its own rules for what types of bets are allowed, which markets are restricted, and how sportsbooks must operate. Common differences include:

• College player props: Banned in many states
• Prop variety: Some states allow more markets than others
• Tax rates: Vary by state
• Advertising rules: Some states restrict how sportsbooks can advertise

Always check your state's current regulations and only bet with licensed operators. Laws change frequently, so verify before placing any bets.

Why Player Props Are So Popular (DFS, Engagement & Handle Shift)

Player props have grown from a novelty to a major share of total sports betting handle in the US. Several factors drive this popularity:

• Engagement: Props create more markets per game, giving bettors more ways to stay involved on every play
• DFS crossover: Daily fantasy sports (DFS) players already focus on player stats and projections, making props a natural extension
• Same game parlays: SGPs let bettors combine multiple props into one ticket, creating big potential payouts
• Player focus: Many bettors prefer rooting for individual players rather than teams

From DFS to Player Props: Using Your Research Skills

If you play daily fantasy sports, you already have many of the skills needed for player props betting:

• Projections: Estimating player stat lines based on usage, pace, matchup
• Matchup analysis: Understanding how defenses and game scripts affect player performance
• Slate research: Identifying high-value plays and avoiding traps

The main difference is that props betting involves odds, vig, and line shopping, while DFS involves salaries and ownership. But the core research process is similar.

Core Strategy for Player Props Betting (Beginner → Intermediate)

High-Level Approach: Start Small, Specialize in One Sport, Track Results

If you are new to player props betting, follow these principles:

• Start small: Bet 0.5-1 percent of your bankroll per prop
• Specialize: Focus on one sport where you have knowledge and data
• Track results: Record every bet in a spreadsheet to identify what works
• Line shop: Compare odds across multiple sportsbooks to find the best price
• Avoid chasing: Never increase stake size to recover losses

Player props are more volatile than spreads and totals, so you need discipline and patience to succeed.

Key Factors to Analyze Before a Prop Bet

Before betting any player prop, check these factors:

NFL:

• Game script: Is this a blowout risk? Will the team be throwing or running late?
• Pace: How fast does the team play? More plays = more opportunities
• Red-zone usage: Who gets targets and touches inside the 20-yard line?
• Defensive matchups: How does the receiver match up against the opposing cornerback?
• Weather: Wind and rain can dramatically affect passing and kicking props

NBA:

• Usage: What percentage of team possessions does the player use when on the floor?
• Pace: How many possessions per game? More possessions = more opportunities
• Minute projections: Starters typically play 32-38 minutes, but blowouts and rest days can reduce playing time
• Back-to-backs: Players on the second night of a back-to-back often see reduced minutes
• Rest days: Teams with more rest typically perform better

MLB:

• Pitcher/batter splits: How does the batter perform against left-handed or right-handed pitchers?
• Park factors: Some parks favor hitters, others favor pitchers
• Weather: Wind, temperature, and humidity affect fly ball carry
• Umpire tendencies: Some umpires have larger strike zones, affecting strikeout props

Unders vs Overs on Player Props

One of the most discussed concepts in player props betting is whether unders offer better value than overs. This is often called "under bias" or "overs bias."

The core idea is that the betting public tends to favor overs because they are more exciting and create more rooting interest. Sportsbooks may shade their lines to account for this preference, creating value on unders.

Historical data from various sports suggests that unders have historically shown slight positive returns over time, especially in high-volume markets. However, this is not a guarantee, and blind betting all unders is a losing strategy.

Use under bias as one factor in your research, not as a standalone system. When your projection is neutral, consider whether the under offers better value.

Bankroll Management for Props

Due to higher variance and higher vig, bankroll management is critical in player props betting. Common guidelines:

• Bet 0.5-1 percent of your total bankroll per prop
• Set daily and weekly loss limits
• Never chase losses by increasing stake size
• Track your results over large sample sizes (100+ bets)

Example (for illustration only, not betting advice):

• Bankroll: $2,000
• Stake per prop: 0.5-1 percent = $10-$20
• Daily loss limit: 5 percent = $100
• Weekly loss limit: 10 percent = $200

Discipline and consistency are more important than any single bet or strategy.

Tools & Calculators for Player Props (How to Use Them)

How a Player Props Calculator Works

A player props calculator is one of the most useful tools for betting props. It helps you:

• Calculate payouts and profit for any odds and stake
• Convert odds to implied probability
• Remove vig to find fair odds and fair probability
• Calculate expected value (EV) based on your projection

To use a player props calculator:

1. Enter your prop market, odds, and stake
2. Enter your projected win probability
3. Review payout, implied probability, and EV
4. If EV is positive, you have a theoretical edge

Using Odds Comparison & EV Tools Responsibly

Odds comparison screens and EV tools can help you find the best prices and identify value, but they are not magic. Always:

• Cross-check with your own research: Do not blindly follow EV labels
• Understand the methodology: How are projections built? What data is used?
• Track results: Evaluate the accuracy of tools over time
• Bet with discipline: Even positive EV bets lose in the short term

Use tools as aids to your own analysis, not as guarantees.

Same Game Parlays & Correlation with Player Props

Same game parlays, or SGPs, let you combine multiple props from the same game into one bet. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out. SGPs are exciting and offer big potential payouts, but they are also complex and often carry extra vig.

Simple Explanation of SGPs and How They Relate to Player Props

A same game parlay combines two or more selections from the same game. For example:

• Patrick Mahomes over 275.5 passing yards
• Travis Kelce anytime touchdown
• Kansas City Chiefs to win

If all three legs hit, the parlay pays out at combined odds. If any leg loses, the entire bet loses.

Explain Correlation in Plain Language

Correlation means that the outcome of one leg affects the probability of another leg. In same game parlays, correlation can be positive, negative, or neutral.

Positive correlation:

• QB passing yards and WR receiving yards (same team)
• Team to win and player on that team to score a touchdown

Negative correlation:

• Team to win big and opponent player to go over yards (game script conflict)

Sportsbooks adjust SGP odds to account for correlation. When legs are positively correlated, the combined payout is lower than if you bet them separately. This is often called the "correlation tax."

Explain That Books Often Charge Extra Vig for SGPs

Same game parlays typically carry higher vig than traditional parlays or single bets because:

• Pricing correlation is complex and opaque
• SGPs attract recreational action and emotional betting
• Books can charge extra vig without it being obvious

Most sharp bettors avoid SGPs or bet them only in very small sizes. If you do bet SGPs, keep leg counts low (2-3 legs) and stakes small.

For a full guide to same game parlay strategy and correlation, see our Prop Betting Strategy Guide.

Sport-by-Sport Player Props Examples (NFL, NBA, MLB)

NFL Player Props (Passing, Rushing, Receiving, TDs)

NFL player props are the most popular type of prop bet in the US. Common markets include:

• Passing: Yards, touchdowns, interceptions, completions
• Rushing: Yards, touchdowns, attempts
• Receiving: Yards, receptions, touchdowns
• Anytime touchdown scorer: Any player to score a touchdown during the game

Example (for illustration only, not betting advice):

• Market: Tyreek Hill receiving yards
• Line: Over 87.5 at -110
• Key factors: Matchup vs opposing cornerback, game script, target share, weather

NBA Player Props (Points, Rebounds, Assists, PRA)

NBA player props focus on individual stats and combination markets:

• Points: Over/under total points scored
• Rebounds: Over/under total rebounds
• Assists: Over/under total assists
• PRA: Points + rebounds + assists combined

Example (for illustration only, not betting advice):

• Market: Giannis Antetokounmpo PRA
• Line: Over 52.5 at -115
• Key factors: Usage rate, pace, minutes, opponent defensive rating, rest

MLB Player Props (Pitcher Ks, Hits, HR, Total Bases)

MLB player props focus on hitting and pitching stats:

• Pitching: Strikeouts, earned runs, wins
• Hitting: Hits, home runs, RBIs, total bases
• NRFI/YRFI: No run or yes run in the first inning

Example (for illustration only, not betting advice):

• Market: Shohei Ohtani strikeouts
• Line: Over 8.5 at -120
• Key factors: Opponent batting order, ballpark, weather, recent performance

Are Player Props Profitable? (Realistic Expectations)

Player props can be profitable for skilled, disciplined bettors with good research processes, but most bettors lose money on props due to high vig, variance, and emotional betting.

Sportsbooks expect to make money in the long run on all markets, including props. The house edge on player props is typically higher than on spreads and totals due to less market efficiency and higher vig.

Props may offer opportunities for bettors who:

• Have better projections than the market
• Shop for the best odds across multiple books
• Manage bankroll with discipline
• Focus on process over short-term results

Treat props as entertainment with potential for positive expected value, not as a source of income or a way to solve financial problems.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are player props?

Player props are bets on specific statistics or outcomes tied to individual players, not the final result of the game. Examples include passing yards, points scored, rebounds, or strikeouts.

How do player props work?

Player props work like any other bet: you choose a market, stake an amount, and win or lose based on the outcome. Most player props are over/under markets where you bet whether a player will exceed or stay under a specific line.

Are player props legal in my state?

Player props are legal in states where online sports betting is licensed and regulated. However, some states ban college player props or restrict certain markets. Check your state's regulations and only use licensed sportsbooks.

Are player props more profitable than spreads?

Player props are not automatically more profitable than spreads. They offer opportunities for value, but they also carry higher vig and higher variance. Success depends on your edge, discipline, and bankroll management.

Can you parlay player props?

Yes, you can combine player props into parlays or same game parlays, but rules vary by sportsbook. Some combinations may be restricted, especially when legs are correlated.

What is the best sportsbook for player props?

DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM typically offer the most variety and competitive odds on player props. Always line shop across multiple books to find the best price.

How do I calculate player prop payouts?

Use a prop bet calculator to calculate payouts, implied probability, and expected value for any player prop.

What is a same game parlay?

A same game parlay combines multiple props and markets from the same game into one bet. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out. SGPs typically carry higher vig due to correlation and complexity.