Game Preview of Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens. Week 5 of 2025 NFL Season
The Houston Texans head to M&T Bank Stadium to face the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, October 5 at 1:00 PM ET. Both teams enter at 1-3, desperate to avoid falling to 1-4, a record that rarely leads to playoff contention.
The Ravens’ biggest problem is Lamar Jackson’s hamstring injury. He is doubtful, which likely means Cooper Rush will make his first start for Baltimore. That shifts the entire offence. Instead of Jackson’s dual-threat attack, the Ravens may ride Derrick Henry and the ground game.
Defensively, Baltimore are in crisis. Roquan Smith and Marlon Humphrey are doubtful, and Kyle Hamilton is banged up. That leaves a unit that has already given up 37 or more points in three of four games. Houston, meanwhile, come off a 26-0 shutout of Tennessee that featured rookie back Woody Marks’ breakout performance.
For Houston, injuries cloud the picture too. Nico Collins is questionable, and several other wideouts are out, thinning C.J. Stroud’s options. Even so, the Texans’ defence has been stout, ranking near the top in sacks and scoring allowed.
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-28 | @ KC | L 20-37 | L -2.5 | o48.5 |
| 2025-09-22 | vs DET | L 30-38 | L 4.5 | o53.5 |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CLE | W 41-17 | W +12.5 | o46.5 |
| 2025-09-07 | @ BUF | L 40-41 | W +-1.5 | o50.5 |
| 2025-01-19 | @ BUF | L 25-27 | L -1.5 | o51.5 |
| 2025-01-11 | vs PIT | W 28-14 | W +9.5 | u44.5 |
| 2025-01-04 | vs CLE | W 35-10 | W +19.5 | o42.5 |
| 2024-12-25 | @ HOU | W 31-2 | W +-5.5 | u46.5 |
| 2024-12-21 | vs PIT | W 34-17 | W +7.0 | o44.5 |
| 2024-12-15 | @ NYG | W 35-14 | W +-16.5 | o43.5 |
Pass rush mismatch: Ravens allow sacks on 11.4% of dropbacks (3rd pct). Texans generate sacks at 7.7% (75th pct).
Explosive scheme vs leaky defence: Texans scheme-based explosive play rate is 5.7% (97th pct). Ravens allow 8.8% explosive passes (12th pct).
Ground game strength: Baltimore explosive run rate sits at 8.3% (97th pct). OL injuries could reduce that edge.
Red-zone problems: Ravens allow TDs on 75% of red-zone trips (9th pct). Texans convert only 33% in the red zone (6th pct).
WR health watch: Texans missing multiple wideouts; Nico Collins (Q) is key to sustaining their explosive pass rate (8.2%, 73rd pct).
Defensive attrition: Baltimore’s losses at LB and CB sap their ability to stop big plays and cover deep threats.
Spread anchor: Texans -4.5 (+132) vs Ravens +4.5 (-192). Houston’s pass rush and Baltimore’s QB situation fuel this swing.
Total anchor: 43.5 (Over +104, Under -164). Heavy juice on the Under points to doubts about scoring.
Moneyline (regulation): Texans -127, Ravens +112. Market views Houston as slight but firm favourite.
Player props:
Derrick Henry over 80.5 rushing yards (-122). Volume boost with Rush at QB.
Woody Marks over 52.5 rushing yards (-120). Next man up with Mixon and Pierce out.
Nico Collins anytime TD (+120). If active, Houston’s top WR target.
Mark Andrews over 28.5 receiving yards (-120). Reliable safety valve.
C.J. Stroud under 218.5 passing yards (-120). Thin WR corps caps ceiling.
This matchup looks completely different without Lamar Jackson. Cooper Rush is a steady backup but lacks Jackson’s dynamic traits. That pushes Baltimore toward a run-heavy script with Derrick Henry and short throws to Mark Andrews.
The Ravens’ defence is also badly weakened. Without Roquan Smith and Marlon Humphrey, Baltimore’s unit loses its identity. That opens the door for Houston to keep momentum after their shutout win last week.
For the Texans, health at receiver is the key. If Nico Collins can play, C.J. Stroud has enough support to challenge a wounded Ravens secondary. If not, Houston may need to rely more on rookie Woody Marks and a conservative passing plan.
The betting market reflects the change. Baltimore opened as a heavy favourite, but the Texans now sit at -4.5. With the total at 43.5 and juiced to the Under, oddsmakers see a lower-scoring, grind-it-out type of game. Houston’s defensive edge and Baltimore’s injury crisis tilt this matchup toward the Texans, though variance is high with so many moving parts.
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 131 | #3 | 51 | #32 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 32.8 | #3 | 12.8 | #1 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 16 | #3 | 7 | #5 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 10 | #1 | 3 | #3 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 5 | #7 | 4 | #20 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 1 | #10 | 0 | #17 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 35 | #8 | 9 | #32 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 0 | #24 | 0 | #25 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 14 | #2 | 6 | #27 |
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 818 | #18 | 713 | #26 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 204 | #18 | 178 | #26 | |
| Passer Rating | 123 | #1 | 75.7 | #30 | |
| Passing Attempts | 109 | #29 | 133 | #20 | |
| Completions | 77 | #24 | 76 | #24 | 🏈 |
| Completion Percentage | 70.6 | #5 | 57.1 | #2 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 42 | #16 | 40 | #14 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 58.3 | #8 | 57.1 | #17 | |
| Longest Pass | 41 | #26 | 46 | #19 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 1 | #20 | 1 | #9 | |
| Receiving Targets | 105 | #28 | 125 | #13 | |
| Receptions | 77 | #24 | 76 | #9 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 377 | #24 | 357 | #7 | |
| YAC Average | 4.9 | #20 | 4.7 | #11 |
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 534 | #9 | 409 | #12 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 134 | #9 | 102 | #21 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 86 | #30 | 97 | #8 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 6.2 | #1 | 4.2 | #16 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 23 | #24 | 20 | #9 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 5 | #2 | 1 | #29 | |
| Long Rushing | 71 | #3 | 21 | #29 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 5 | #2 | 1 | #29 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 2 | #3 | 0 | #23 |