NFLGame PreviewsHOU VS BAL Preview Week5 05-Oct-2025

Game Preview of Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens. Week 5 of 2025 NFL Season

HOU logo

HOU

1-3-0
@
05OCT25
01:00pm
BAL logo

BAL

1-3-0
M&T Bank Stadium

Game Preview

The Houston Texans head to M&T Bank Stadium to face the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, October 5 at 1:00 PM ET. Both teams enter at 1-3, desperate to avoid falling to 1-4, a record that rarely leads to playoff contention.

The Ravens’ biggest problem is Lamar Jackson’s hamstring injury. He is doubtful, which likely means Cooper Rush will make his first start for Baltimore. That shifts the entire offence. Instead of Jackson’s dual-threat attack, the Ravens may ride Derrick Henry and the ground game.

Defensively, Baltimore are in crisis. Roquan Smith and Marlon Humphrey are doubtful, and Kyle Hamilton is banged up. That leaves a unit that has already given up 37 or more points in three of four games. Houston, meanwhile, come off a 26-0 shutout of Tennessee that featured rookie back Woody Marks’ breakout performance.

For Houston, injuries cloud the picture too. Nico Collins is questionable, and several other wideouts are out, thinning C.J. Stroud’s options. Even so, the Texans’ defence has been stout, ranking near the top in sacks and scoring allowed.

Current Season Form

HOU logo

HOU

Away
Record:1-3-0
ATS:1-3-0
O/U:0-4-0
BAL logo

BAL

Home
Record:1-3-0
ATS:1-3-0
O/U:4-0-0

Head-to-Head Summary

Record:
0-5Winner logo
ATS:0-5-0
O/U:0-4-1

Past Results

DateOpponentResultATSO/U
2025-09-28@ KCL 20-37L -2.5o48.5
2025-09-22vs DETL 30-38L 4.5o53.5
2025-09-14vs CLEW 41-17W +12.5o46.5
2025-09-07@ BUFL 40-41W +-1.5o50.5
2025-01-19@ BUFL 25-27L -1.5o51.5
2025-01-11vs PITW 28-14W +9.5u44.5
2025-01-04vs CLEW 35-10W +19.5o42.5
2024-12-25@ HOUW 31-2W +-5.5u46.5
2024-12-21vs PITW 34-17W +7.0o44.5
2024-12-15@ NYGW 35-14W +-16.5o43.5

Key Insights

 

  • Pass rush mismatch: Ravens allow sacks on 11.4% of dropbacks (3rd pct). Texans generate sacks at 7.7% (75th pct).

  • Explosive scheme vs leaky defence: Texans scheme-based explosive play rate is 5.7% (97th pct). Ravens allow 8.8% explosive passes (12th pct).

  • Ground game strength: Baltimore explosive run rate sits at 8.3% (97th pct). OL injuries could reduce that edge.

  • Red-zone problems: Ravens allow TDs on 75% of red-zone trips (9th pct). Texans convert only 33% in the red zone (6th pct).

  • WR health watch: Texans missing multiple wideouts; Nico Collins (Q) is key to sustaining their explosive pass rate (8.2%, 73rd pct).

  • Defensive attrition: Baltimore’s losses at LB and CB sap their ability to stop big plays and cover deep threats.

 

Betting Insights

 

  • Spread anchor: Texans -4.5 (+132) vs Ravens +4.5 (-192). Houston’s pass rush and Baltimore’s QB situation fuel this swing.

  • Total anchor: 43.5 (Over +104, Under -164). Heavy juice on the Under points to doubts about scoring.

  • Moneyline (regulation): Texans -127, Ravens +112. Market views Houston as slight but firm favourite.

  • Player props:

    • Derrick Henry over 80.5 rushing yards (-122). Volume boost with Rush at QB.

    • Woody Marks over 52.5 rushing yards (-120). Next man up with Mixon and Pierce out.

    • Nico Collins anytime TD (+120). If active, Houston’s top WR target.

    • Mark Andrews over 28.5 receiving yards (-120). Reliable safety valve.

    • C.J. Stroud under 218.5 passing yards (-120). Thin WR corps caps ceiling.

 

Final Summary

This matchup looks completely different without Lamar Jackson. Cooper Rush is a steady backup but lacks Jackson’s dynamic traits. That pushes Baltimore toward a run-heavy script with Derrick Henry and short throws to Mark Andrews.

The Ravens’ defence is also badly weakened. Without Roquan Smith and Marlon Humphrey, Baltimore’s unit loses its identity. That opens the door for Houston to keep momentum after their shutout win last week.

For the Texans, health at receiver is the key. If Nico Collins can play, C.J. Stroud has enough support to challenge a wounded Ravens secondary. If not, Houston may need to rely more on rookie Woody Marks and a conservative passing plan.

The betting market reflects the change. Baltimore opened as a heavy favourite, but the Texans now sit at -4.5. With the total at 43.5 and juiced to the Under, oddsmakers see a lower-scoring, grind-it-out type of game. Houston’s defensive edge and Baltimore’s injury crisis tilt this matchup toward the Texans, though variance is high with so many moving parts.

Statistical Battle Boards

Viewing: BAL Offense vs HOU Defense
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Total Points131#351#32BAL advantage
Total Points Per Game32.8#312.8#1HOU advantage
Total Touchdowns16#37#5BAL advantage
Passing Touchdowns10#13#3BAL advantage
Rushing Touchdowns5#74#20BAL advantage
Other Touchdowns1#100#17BAL advantage
Total Kicking Points35#89#32BAL advantage
Total Two Point Conversions0#240#25BAL advantage
Kick Extra Points14#26#27BAL advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Net Passing Yards818#18713#26BAL advantage
Net Passing Yards Per Game204#18178#26BAL advantage
Passer Rating123#175.7#30BAL advantage
Passing Attempts109#29133#20HOU advantage
Completions77#2476#24🏈
Completion Percentage70.6#557.1#2HOU advantage
Passing 1st downs42#1640#14HOU advantage
Passing 1st Down %58.3#857.1#17BAL advantage
Longest Pass41#2646#19HOU advantage
Passing Fumbles Lost1#201#9HOU advantage
Receiving Targets105#28125#13HOU advantage
Receptions77#2476#9HOU advantage
Receiving Yards After Catch377#24357#7HOU advantage
YAC Average4.9#204.7#11HOU advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Rushing Yards534#9409#12BAL advantage
Rushing Yards Per Game134#9102#21BAL advantage
Rushing Attempts86#3097#8HOU advantage
Yards Per Rush Attempt6.2#14.2#16BAL advantage
Rushing 1st downs23#2420#9HOU advantage
20+ Yard Rushing Plays5#21#29BAL advantage
Long Rushing71#321#29BAL advantage
Rushing Fumbles5#21#29BAL advantage
Rushing Fumbles Lost2#30#23BAL advantage