• Pass rush mismatch: Ravens allow sacks on 11.4% of dropbacks (3rd pct). Texans generate sacks at 7.7% (75th pct).

• Explosive scheme vs leaky defence: Texans scheme-based explosive play rate is 5.7% (97th pct). Ravens allow 8.8% explosive passes (12th pct).

• Ground game strength: Baltimore explosive run rate sits at 8.3% (97th pct). OL injuries could reduce that edge.

• Red-zone problems: Ravens allow TDs on 75% of red-zone trips (9th pct). Texans convert only 33% in the red zone (6th pct).

• WR health watch: Texans missing multiple wideouts; Nico Collins (Q) is key to sustaining their explosive pass rate (8.2%, 73rd pct).

• Defensive attrition: Baltimore’s losses at LB and CB sap their ability to stop big plays and cover deep threats.

• Spread anchor: Texans -4.5 (+132) vs Ravens +4.5 (-192). Houston’s pass rush and Baltimore’s QB situation fuel this swing.

• Total anchor: 43.5 (Over +104, Under -164). Heavy juice on the Under points to doubts about scoring.

• Moneyline (regulation): Texans -127, Ravens +112. Market views Houston as slight but firm favourite.

• Player props:

  • Derrick Henry over 80.5 rushing yards (-122). Volume boost with Rush at QB.

  • Woody Marks over 52.5 rushing yards (-120). Next man up with Mixon and Pierce out.

  • Nico Collins anytime TD (+120). If active, Houston’s top WR target.

  • Mark Andrews over 28.5 receiving yards (-120). Reliable safety valve.

  • C.J. Stroud under 218.5 passing yards (-120). Thin WR corps caps ceiling.

This matchup looks completely different without Lamar Jackson. Cooper Rush is a steady backup but lacks Jackson’s dynamic traits. That pushes Baltimore toward a run-heavy script with Derrick Henry and short throws to Mark Andrews.

The Ravens’ defence is also badly weakened. Without Roquan Smith and Marlon Humphrey, Baltimore’s unit loses its identity. That opens the door for Houston to keep momentum after their shutout win last week.

For the Texans, health at receiver is the key. If Nico Collins can play, C.J. Stroud has enough support to challenge a wounded Ravens secondary. If not, Houston may need to rely more on rookie Woody Marks and a conservative passing plan.

The betting market reflects the change. Baltimore opened as a heavy favourite, but the Texans now sit at -4.5. With the total at 43.5 and juiced to the Under, oddsmakers see a lower-scoring, grind-it-out type of game. Houston’s defensive edge and Baltimore’s injury crisis tilt this matchup toward the Texans, though variance is high with so many moving parts.