• Seattle wins with explosives: The Seahawks post a 12.0% explosive pass rate (98th percentile; sample 166).

• Houston’s pass D can leak chunk plays: The Texans allow explosive passes at 8.8% (11th percentile; sample 159).

• Seahawks snuff big runs: SEA allows explosive runs on just 0.7% of carries (97th; sample 144).

• Texans ground game still searching: HOU explosive run rate sits at 2.3% (16th; sample 133).

• Quick strikes are Houston’s spark: HOU quick-strike rate is 6.5% (100th; small sample 31), helped by scheme explosives 6.0% (91st).

• Third-and-long hurts Seattle’s offense: SEA converts third-and-7+ at 10.3% (3rd percentile; sample 39), so staying ahead of the sticks matters.

• Anchor spread: Seahawks -3.5 (-106). Seattle’s 12.0% explosive pass rate meets a Texans defense that allows explosives at 8.8%. One score game by the number.

• Anchor total: 41.5 (Over -110 / Under -119). Both defenses can force stalls; the Under has the heavier juice at this price.

• Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD (+118). Texans allow red-zone TDs 63.6% of the time, boosting SEA RB chances.

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime TD (+102). Seattle’s deep and explosive rates (both top tier) fit a WR score.

• Nico Collins Anytime TD (+142, volatile). HOU big-play TD rate 26.3% (small sample) points to splash potential if he’s active.

• Over 3.5 Field Goals (-103). Two solid defenses and shaky third-and-long for SEA can create kick attempts.

Note: For all Questionable players, size stakes modestly or wait for official actives.

Expect a field position grind early, then spurts of big-play offense. Seattle’s downfield passing can stress a Houston secondary missing pieces. Houston counters with scheme shots and quick strikes.

Trenches matter. If Seattle’s banged-up line holds, explosive plays follow. If not, checkdowns and a heavier run script could slow the pace. Houston needs Collins healthy to threaten deep and loosen the box.

Our anchors match what the market shows now: Seahawks -3.5 (-106) and Total 41.5 with a lean to Under -119 given both defenses’ traits and Seattle’s third-and-long issues. For props, Walker (+118) and JSN (+102) fit Seattle’s profile, while Collins (+142) is a price-driven dart if he’s active. Manage juice, respect variance, and adjust once inactives drop.