• Indy can throw on this defense. The Colts post an 8.9% explosive pass rate (83rd percentile; sample 90). The Rams allow explosive passes at 8.4% (23rd; sample 166).

• Rams bring top-end explosive ability. Los Angeles owns a 12.4% explosive pass rate (100th; sample 97). That pressure targets a Colts secondary missing pieces.

• Protection favors Indy. The Colts allow sacks on only 2.2% of dropbacks (94th; sample 90). The Rams’ sack-rate generated sits at 7.1% (61st; sample 169).

• Colts run defense has sprung leaks. Indy has allowed explosive runs on 10.2% of rushes (sample 59, small sample). That fits Kyren Williams’ workload.

• Situational football splits. Indy’s red-zone TD rate is 35.3% (12th percentile; sample 17, small sample), while the Rams’ defense allows TDs on only 41.2% in the red zone (88th; sample 17).

• Style contrast. The Rams line up under center 76.4% of the time (100th; sample 229), while the Colts favor shotgun at 55.9% (77th; sample 236). That affects play-action depth and pass rush angles.

• Anchor spread: Rams -4.0 at +102. Not a -3 or -3.5, so expect swing risk around late field goals.

• Anchor total: 48.5 with Over -128 and Under -104. Juice leans Over, but injuries could whipsaw pace.

• Moneyline shape: Rams -182 vs Colts +158. Price implies Los Angeles wins about two-thirds of the time, not a lock.

• Daniel Jones over 215.5 passing yards (-119): Rams rank 23rd percentile in explosive-pass prevention, which helps modest yardage overs.

• Michael Pittman Jr. over 51.5 receiving yards (-118): Fits the same matchup. Safe role, fair price.

• Kyren Williams over 70.5 rushing yards (-122): Colts have allowed a high explosive-run rate (small sample). Juice is heavier, size accordingly.

• Puka Nacua over 92.5 receiving yards (-119): Colts are thin at CB. If Davante Adams sits, Nacua’s target share can spike. If Adams plays, volume is still strong, but variance rises.

• Josh Downs over 37.5 receiving yards (-119): Matchup friendly, but he is Questionable, so expect volatility.

This looks like a pass-lean game for the Colts and a shot-play game for the Rams. Indy protects well, which keeps Jones on schedule. The Rams, when healthy up front, can hit explosives against a short-handed secondary.

The betting market sets a near key-number favorite at Rams -4.0 and a total of 48.5. That says points, but the juice and the injury list demand caution. Track the Rams’ offensive line and Davante Adams before kickoff.

If Adams is limited, expect more Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams. If the Colts get one of their questionable WRs cleared, Jones has enough to press the Rams’ downfield weakness.

Price sensitivity matters here. Several props sit between -118 and -128. That is real juice. Scale bet size and expect variance in a game that can swing on two or three explosive plays.