• Colts run game vs Steelers front: IND Explosive Run Rate 5.1% (69th pct) meets PIT Explosive Run Allowed 6.7% (11th pct). That tilts early-down advantage to Indy.

• Protection edge: IND Sack Rate Allowed 3.5% (89th pct) helps neutralise Pittsburgh’s rush even with star rushers on the field.

• Third downs: Indy convert at 45.3% (88th pct), while Pittsburgh’s third-down stops sit in the lower tier (28th pct by percentile tag). Sustained drives favour the Colts.

• Red zone trade-off: PIT Red-Zone TD Rate 73.7% (97th pct) vs IND TD Allowed 61.5% (44th pct). Steelers can finish if they get there.

• Personnel volatility: Steelers RB Jaylen Warren OUT reduces explosive run threat. Colts front-seven has multiple Questionable tags (e.g., Buckner, Stewart), which could aid Pittsburgh’s interior run if those players sit.

• Explosive pass tug-of-war: IND defence has allowed explosives through the air (17th pct by percentile), but PIT deep-pass explosiveness is low (14th pct). That limits Pittsburgh’s big-play upside unless scheme creates it.

• Spread (anchor): Colts -3.5 (-105). Indy’s third-down edge and run-game explosives support a one-score cover, but note late injury swings on both D-lines.

• Total (anchor): 50.5 — Over -118 / Under -114. The market is set above the key 49; explosives favour the Over, but Steelers’ injuries could slow pace. Juice is heavy either side, so price-shop.

• Jonathan Taylor over 95.5 rushing yards (-120): Fits Colts’ explosive run profile vs Steelers’ explosive runs allowed. Variance if PIT sell out to the box.

• Tyler Warren over 53.5 receiving yards (-118): Colts scheme the rookie TE all over the formation. Pittsburgh’s LB/S health is shaky.

• Daniel Jones over 13.5 rushing yards (-114): Designed keepers plus scramble equity behind a high-end protection rate.

• Michael Pittman Jr. over 53.5 receiving yards (-122): Reliable target against a banged-up secondary. Juice is notable; consider partial-stake sizing.

• Aaron Rodgers under 237.5 passing yards (-119): With RB1 out and OL pieces dinged, Pittsburgh may struggle to create explosives. Small margin given Rodgers’ experience.

Indianapolis arrive with a run game that can rip chunk gains and an offence that stays on schedule. Their pass protection is a real edge in this matchup. If they win early downs, they keep Daniel Jones in rhythm and open play-action shots.

Pittsburgh’s best counter is in the red zone, where they convert drives into touchdowns at an elite rate. The question is getting there often enough without Jaylen Warren and with several offensive linemen on the report. Defensively, injuries in the secondary raise risk against Pittman and the Colts’ tight ends.

Against the number, Colts -3.5 at a near-even price is reasonable if their front-seven health holds up. The total at 50.5 sits above a key scoring band; game flow leans to points if Indy’s run game pops early, but late injury news could tug this either way.

As always, manage stake size, respect the juice, and avoid player props on anyone listed Out. Questionable tags add variance; if a key defender is ruled in or out near kickoff, reassess the spread and any yardage overs tied to that matchup.