• Colts can stress Tennessee’s secondary: Indianapolis owns a 12.1% explosive pass rate (78th pct, sample 58) while Tennessee allows 13.1% explosive passes (16th pct, sample 61).

• Turnovers favor Indy: The Colts force turnovers at 5.5% (100th pct, sample 73); the Titans convert just 24.0% on third down (3rd pct, sample 25), a combo that ends drives.

• Tennessee protection is a problem: 12.3% sack rate allowed (6th pct, sample 57) with JC Latham out and Zeitler questionable increases negative plays.

• Indy’s soft spot is run defence: 13.6% explosive runs allowed (3rd pct, sample 22) — small sample, but if Tennessee finds crease runs, that’s their path.

• Receiver health shapes both plans: Josh Downs (Q) could cap IND’s slot/space game; Calvin Ridley (Q) drives TEN’s ability to threaten deep.

• Colts pass defence limits explosives: 4.3% explosive passes allowed (80th pct, sample 47), which funnels Tennessee to underneath throws and longer drives.

• Spread — Colts -3.5 (-123): IND’s edge comes from explosive pass rate (12.1%) matching a TEN secondary that allows 13.1% explosives; turnover rate 5.5% adds win probability at the key margin.

• Total — 43.5 (Over -119 / Under -128): Market expects a mid-40s game. Titans’ 24.0% third-down rate and O-line issues lean to longer fields; note the heavier juice on the Under.

• Colts team total Over 23.5 (-127): Positive matchup vs TEN explosive-pass allowed 13.1% supports three-score potential.

• Jonathan Taylor over 88.5 rush yards (-120): Titans allow 8.5% explosive runs; Taylor’s burst can clear this with 18–20 carries.

• Daniel Jones over 23.5 rush yards (-118): Low pressure-to-sack conversion for TEN (1.6%) often becomes QB scrambles.

• Cam Ward under 203.5 pass yards (-119): Rookie behind a leaky line vs a defence that limits explosives (4.3%) and takes it away (5.5%).

Props on players listed Out are off the card. For Questionable tags like Calvin Ridley or Josh Downs, expect volatility—wait for inactives or size down.

The Colts have the cleaner path. Their passing game creates chunk plays, and their defence steals possessions. That fits a favorite laying -3.5.

Tennessee need to run it and avoid long-yardage downs. The traits say that’s tough: the line is banged up, third-down results are poor, and the Colts defend deep shots well. If Ridley plays and hits one or two explosives, the Titans can hang. If not, they must string long drives without mistakes.

The pricing matches the profile: Colts -3.5 (-123), total 43.5 with juice shaded to the Under. Early-season variance is real, so keep bet sizes in check.

Bottom line: Indianapolis has more ways to win this script—explosives on offence, takeaways on defence, and a steadier pocket. Tennessee’s upset bid likely needs a ground-game spike and clean protection.