• Anchor lines: Bengals -3.5 (+100); Total 48.5 (-115/-115).

• Explosives check: JAX allows 2.9% explosive passes (sample 34). That’s a strong “no freebies” number.

• Protection risk: CIN 11.5% sack rate allowed (sample 26). JAX’s pressure-to-sack is low (2.8%), so finishes are the question.

• Drive sustain: CIN 50.0% on third down (sample 14) vs JAX third-down stops 46.7%, edge to Bengals to extend series.

• Style clash: JAX 59.5% under center vs CIN 61.2% shotgun, two very different rhythms.

• Small-sample alerts: Some red-zone and explosive metrics carry limited snaps; expect swings.

• Against the Spread: Bengals -3.5 (+100) third-down edge (50%) and home field help offset JAX’s explosive-pass defense. Even money reduces juice.

• Total: Under 48.5 (-115) JAX limits deep shots (2.9% explosive passes allowed) and leans under-center; that can slow scoring spikes.

• Moneyline: Bengals -185 pricey, but pairs with Under for a script where CIN sustains drives and JAX caps explosives.

• Player (CIN): Tee Higgins Over 5.5 Receptions (-118) heavy shotgun rate (61.2%) plus fewer deep shots points to volume underneath.

• Player (CIN): Ja’Marr Chase Anytime TD (-130) 66.7% red-zone TD rate (small sample) supports one end-zone target winning.

• Player (JAX): Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Pass TDs (-105) CIN third-down stop 43.8% is bottom-tier so far; more red-zone bites.

• Fade angle: Ja’Marr Chase Under 6.5 Receptions (-112) JAX’s explosive-pass lid forces longer drives; volume can land 5–6.

• Injury/volatility notes: Gesicki (Q) could swing TE targets; price bakes in risk. Travis Hunter may see more defense; that supports his Under 51.5 receiving (-120) if you want an added lean.

This sets up as a methodical game. Cincinnati’s third-down edge points to time of possession and enough chain-moving throws. Jacksonville’s defense doesn’t give up easy explosives, which can push this under the mid-40s unless red-zone efficiency spikes.

Our lean is Bengals -3.5 (+100). Even money helps, and the matchup on third down matters. If you want less variance, the moneyline (-185) is a safer path but carries heavier juice.

For the total, we lean Under 48.5 (-115). JAX’s style (more under-center) and explosive-pass lid fit a 24–21 or 27–20 type script. Small samples mean swings are possible, so size your bets with that in mind.

Player angles: Higgins Over 5.5 receptions (-118) on volume, Chase Anytime TD (-130) for red-zone usage, and Lawrence Over 1.5 pass TDs (-105) if JAX strings drives. Avoid Tank Bigsby props; roster context conflicts with those listings. As always, check statuses on Q players close to kickoff and respect the juice.