• Goal-line swing: Jaguars Goal Line Stuff Rate 71.4% (100th pct) matches up with Raiders Red-zone TD Rate 38.9% (3rd pct). Points may skew to field goals.

• Turnover edge: Jaguars Turnover Generation Rate 3.6% (97th pct). That pressures a Raiders offence that has given the ball away in bunches.

• Explosive pass vs. middling pass D: Raiders Explosive Pass Rate 8.9% (78th pct) vs Jaguars Explosive Pass Allowed 7.7% (41st pct).

• OL health matters: Multiple Jaguars linemen are questionable; Raiders’ pass rush improves if Maxx Crosby is full-go.

• Sustainability issue for LV: Raiders Long Drive Efficiency 61.9% (3rd pct) and Third-down Stop Rate 55.6% (19th pct on defence) hint at inconsistency.

• Kicking reliability is shaky: Jaguars Field Goal Accuracy 71.4% (6th pct). Finishing drives is critical.

• Spread anchor: Jaguars -3.5 (+104) — plus-money to lay 3.5 reflects OL risk and Raiders’ explosive pass threat.

• Total anchor: 45.5 — Under -125 leans into JAX goal-line strength and LV red-zone struggles; juice is heavier, price that in.

• Moneyline: Jaguars -147 if you prefer to avoid the hook; cost is higher than the spread plus-money.

• Team totals: Raiders Under 20.5 (-122) correlates with their red-zone rate and OL injuries. Jaguars Over 23.5 (-116) needs cleaner protection to get there.

• First-half total: 22.5 (O -123/U -116) — early script depends on Bowers/Crosby statuses; volatility is higher pre-inactives.

Prices move. Always shop for the best number. Variance is real, and none of this guarantees outcomes.

Jacksonville brings a defence that wins at the goal line and takes the ball away. That travels. If Lloyd returns, the Jaguars’ identity sharpens. The worry is the offensive line. Penalties and sacks can stall any drive, especially on the road.

Las Vegas needs explosives to bypass third downs and the red zone. Bowers, if active, can threaten the seams and help Geno Smith simplify reads. But the line is thin, and long drives remain an issue. Maxx Crosby’s presence would tilt some snaps, particularly on obvious passing downs.

The market reflects a modest edge for Jacksonville. Laying 3.5 at plus money is tempting, but the safer path for risk-averse bettors is the moneyline. The total sits in a range where one or two red-zone stops can decide it. Given the traits, the Under at 45.5 has a case, though you’re paying extra juice.

Bottom line: Jacksonville is the more stable team, especially on defence. If they play cleaner up front, they should control field position and win a low-to-mid-40s game.