• Jags protect the quarterback. Jacksonville’s sack rate allowed is 2.6% (89th percentile; sample 116), while San Francisco’s sack rate generated is 3.2% (19th; sample 94). Lawrence should see time in the pocket.

• 49ers handle third downs. San Francisco converts 43.6% on third down (73rd; sample 39) and also stops 66.7% on defense (83rd; sample 36). That keeps them on schedule.

• Explosive-pass contrast. SF’s deep-pass explosive rate is 6.0% (84th; sample 116), but Jacksonville’s defense allows explosive passes on just 4.3% (88th; sample 116). Explosive plays are gains of 15+ yards through the air.

• Run-game texture. The 49ers allow explosive runs at 4.8% (34th; sample 84), which gives Jacksonville a path to steady gains with Travis Etienne. Small sample, but notable.

• Turnover pressure from JAX. The Jaguars’ turnover generation rate is 4.9% (100th; sample 185). That can shorten fields and cap SF drives.

• Injury ripple effects. With Aiyuk out and multiple SF receivers Questionable, targets can condense to Christian McCaffrey and whoever suits up. On the other side, JAX receiver and corner injuries create volatility in both coverage and target share.

• Anchor spread: 49ers -3.5 (-101). Near a key number. Thin margin raises endgame swing risk.

• Anchor total: 46.5 (Over -122, Under -112). Pricing leans slightly Over, but injuries to both WR rooms add variance.

• Moneyline shape: 49ers -182; Jaguars +158. San Francisco is a modest favorite, not a runaway.

• Trevor Lawrence under 224.5 passing yards (-120): JAX has struggled to create deep explosives (1.8% deep rate; 11th), and SF’s third-down defense sits at 66.7% (83rd).

• Christian McCaffrey over 42.5 receiving yards (-120): Aiyuk is out, several SF WRs are Questionable, and JAX limits downfield shots. Checkdown volume helps this.

• Travis Etienne Jr. over 52.5 rushing yards (-120): SF has allowed a higher explosive-run rate than average (4.8%; 34th). JAX’s scheme explosive rate is strong (5.4%; 91st).

• Ricky Pearsall over 69.5 receiving yards (-118) — volatility: He’s Questionable. If active, volume can spike with Aiyuk out.

• Christian McCaffrey anytime TD (-213): Price is steep. If you play it, size small and expect variance in red-zone usage.

San Francisco is short at receiver and uncertain at quarterback, but they still win with third-down strength and structure. Jacksonville offsets that with clean protection and a defense that takes the ball away.

If the 49ers get competent QB play, they can grind drives and feature Christian McCaffrey in the pass game. If Jacksonville’s banged-up receivers are ready, Etienne on the ground plus a clean Lawrence pocket can keep it close.

Market angles reflect that balance: 49ers -3.5 and a total near the mid-40s. That points to a one-score script with field position in play. Late injury news at QB and WR for both teams can nudge this either way.

Bet with price sensitivity. Many props sit around -118 to -122. That is real juice. Keep stakes modest and respect the turnover volatility that Jacksonville brings.