• Chiefs in the red zone: KC TD rate 73.5% (94th pct). That efficiency shortens games and raises their floor.

• Bills’ pressure converts: BUF pressure-to-sack conversion 9.6% (94th pct) and sack rate generated 9.6% (94th pct) challenge KC’s pass pro.

• Explosives through the air: BUF explosive pass rate 9.0% (84th pct) vs KC explosive passes allowed 8.2% (23rd pct).

• Short-yardage contrast: BUF goal-line stuff rate 46.2% (34th pct) vs KC goal-line defence 61.5% (75th pct).

• Style clash: KC heavy shotgun 66.8% (97th pct); BUF plays under centre 59.4% (86th pct), aiding play-action timing.

• Injury leverage points: BUF without slot CB Taron Johnson (Out); multiple BUF defenders Questionable. KC WR/RB room Questionable at several spots.

• Anchor spread: Chiefs -3.0 (-102). KC’s red-zone edge vs BUF short-yardage weakness supports the key number.

• Total focus: 52.5 — Over (-116) / Under (-119). Explosive pass potential on both sides pushes variance; elite red-zone by KC can lift scoring, but sacks can stall drives.

• Team totals: Chiefs over 27.0 (-115) aligns with KC’s finishing strength; Bills over 25.0 (-119) fits their explosive pass profile.

• Mahomes rushing over 29.5 (-119): Scramble equity vs a rush that converts pressures into sacks.

• Kelce over 43.5 receiving (-118): Middle-field targets vs a defence missing its starting slot and leaning on zone spacing.

• James Cook over 11.5 receiving (-114): Outlet usage if pressure wins early downs.

• Rashee Rice over 71.5 receiving (-120): Intermediate volume if KC tackles hold up.

• Josh Allen anytime TD (+100): Designed red-zone keeps vs KC’s goal-line profile.
  Note: Avoid overs on Questionable players if they’re limited or downgraded on gameday.

This rivalry often swings on five plays: a third-and-long escape, a busted tackle, or a tight-window throw in the red zone. The data points to two clear levers: Kansas City’s efficiency near the goal line and Buffalo’s ability to turn pressure into sacks. Whichever lever shows up more often likely decides it.

If Buffalo’s linebackers are active and near full strength, the Bills can squeeze KC’s seams and give Allen extra possessions. If they’re limited, Kansas City’s middle-field passing and red-zone design gain an edge. The absence of Taron Johnson tilts slot matchups toward Kelce and KC’s inside concepts.

On balance, the traits favour a tight game with spurts of explosive offence. Kansas City’s finishing power vs Buffalo’s pass-rush surge is the headline. With the line near the key number and a total in the low 50s, expect momentum swings and a result that comes down to red-zone execution and two-minute drives.

As ever, manage risk. Prices near even money or modest juice lower exposure in a high-variance matchup. Enjoy the game and bet within your limits.