• Jacksonville’s defense forces turnovers at a league-best 5.2% rate, but Mahomes and KC have committed just one giveaway all season.

• Chiefs defense is strong situationally, stopping opponents on 66% of third downs (84th percentile). Jacksonville’s offense converts only 35.2% (22nd percentile).

• Jaguars protect Trevor Lawrence well with just a 2.0% sack rate allowed (94th percentile). That could neutralize a middling KC pass rush.

• Jacksonville’s defense ranks top 12% at limiting explosive runs (1.2%). That could contain Isiah Pacheco.

• Chiefs’ passing game remains inconsistent, just 6.1% explosive pass rate (31st percentile), and is further threatened by injuries to Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown.

• Jaguars’ weakness is stopping drives. Their third-down stop rate is just 54.4% (12th percentile), leaving chances for Kelce and Mahomes to extend plays.

• Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (-115). Market favors KC by a field goal despite JAX being 3-1.

• Total: 45.5 (Over -132, Under -109). Line shaded to the Under, reflecting KC’s defense and JAX’s slower offense.

• Prop: Patrick Mahomes over 248.5 passing yards (-120). Passing volume steady, Jaguars weak at preventing deep completions.

• Prop: Trevor Lawrence under 226.5 passing yards (-119). Faces tough third-down defense and possible O-line injuries.

• Prop: Travis Kelce over 43.5 receiving yards (-118). Reliable chain-mover against a defense weak on third downs.

• Prop: Travis Etienne Jr. over 61.5 rushing yards (-120). High-usage back, Chiefs allow chunk runs at times.

• Anytime TD: Xavier Worthy (+310). Volatility if active, but his speed stretches defenses.

This matchup pits Jacksonville’s turnover surge against Kansas City’s mistake-free style. The Jaguars will try to rattle Mahomes and create short fields, while the Chiefs look to extend drives with Travis Kelce and limit mistakes.

If the Jaguars’ offensive line holds up against Chris Jones and company, Lawrence can keep the game close. But the Chiefs’ defense has been one of the best at getting off the field, and that limits Jacksonville’s margin for error.

The line at -3.5 suggests this could be tight, but Kansas City’s balance on both sides of the ball and Mahomes’ ability to avoid turnovers tilt the edge toward the visitors. The total sitting near 45.5 hints at a lower-scoring prime-time game, with both defenses forcing long drives.

In the end, Jacksonville’s new-look defense meets its toughest test yet. If the takeaways dry up, Mahomes and the Chiefs have the weapons to spoil the Jaguars’ Monday night showcase.