NFLGame PreviewsLAC VS MIA Preview Week6 12-Oct-2025

Game Preview of Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins. Week 6 of 2025 NFL Season

LAC logo

LAC

3-2-0
@
12OCT25
01:00pm
MIA logo

MIA

1-4-0
Hard Rock Stadium

Game Preview

The Chargers visit the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, 1:00 PM ET. Both teams limp in with key injuries. Los Angeles has cluster issues on the offensive line and at running back. Miami is without Tyreek Hill and lists Tua Tagovailoa as questionable.

 

The matchup tilts toward a physical script. The Chargers rate near the top in explosive rushing while Miami’s defence has leaked big runs. That points to Los Angeles leaning on the ground to keep Justin Herbert clean and ahead of the sticks. The deep ball has not popped for the Chargers, so expect more methodical drives and third-down work.

 

Miami’s offence still moves the chains. Even without Hill, the Dolphins rank near the top on third down and third-and-long. If Tua is healthy enough to go, Miami can extend drives with timing routes to Jaylen Waddle and the tight ends, plus outside zone to De’Von Achane if active.

 

Market numbers set this as Chargers by a little more than a field goal and a mid-40s total. With both offensive lines banged up, red zone execution and third downs should decide it.

Current Season Form

LAC logo

LAC

Away
Record:3-2-0
ATS:3-2-0
O/U:1-4-0
MIA logo

MIA

Home
Record:1-4-0
ATS:2-3-0
O/U:4-1-0

Head-to-Head Summary

Record:
2-3Winner logo
ATS:2-3-0
O/U:2-3-0

Past Results

DateOpponentResultATSO/U
2025-10-05@ CARL 24-27L -1.5o44.5
2025-09-29vs NYJW 27-21W +2.5o44.5
2025-09-18@ BUFL 21-31L 12.5o50.5
2025-09-14vs NEL 27-33L 1.5o43.5
2025-09-07@ INDL 8-33L 1.5u47.5
2025-01-05@ NYJL 20-32L 1.5o39.5
2024-12-29@ CLEW 20-3W +-3.0u32.5
2024-12-22vs SFW 29-17W +-2.0o44.0
2024-12-15@ HOUL 12-20L 2.5u46.5
2024-12-08vs NYJW 32-26W +6.5o45.0

Key Insights

 

  • Chargers run juice vs Dolphins run leaks: LAC Explosive Run Rate 6.8% (95th pct) meets MIA Explosive Run Allowed 10.2%.

  • LAC pass game lacks vertical bite: Deep Pass Explosive Rate 2.1% (6th pct) suggests shorter, possession throws to sustain drives.

  • Third downs favour Miami’s offence: Dolphins Third Down Conversion 48.3% and Third-and-Long 44.1% are elite; keeps them in games.

  • Protection is a swing variable: Chargers Sack Rate Allowed 8.6% with LT Rashawn Slater on IR and LT Joe Alt Questionable raises hit risk for Herbert.

  • Red zone split: Miami Red Zone TD Rate 76.9% is a strength, while the Chargers’ Red Zone TD Rate 38.5% on offence is a weakness.

  • QB health matters: Tua Questionable (leg) ties directly to Miami’s explosive pass and third-down traits. If limited, upside drops.

 

Betting Insights

  • Anchor spread: Chargers -4.5 (+104) vs Dolphins +4.5 (-119). Off the key number of -3, so variance rises late.

  • Anchor total: 45.5 with Over +110 / Under -161. Pricing implies the market leans to a lower-scoring game.

  • Anytime TD prices: Jaylen Waddle +152, Keenan Allen +184, De’Von Achane -116 (status questionable). Prices reflect role shifts without Tyreek.

  • Passing yards: Herbert 253.5Under -120 / Over -118; deep explosiveness is low and protection is shaky.

  • Passing yards: Tua 224.5Under -120 / Over -118; Tyreek IR plus Q tag adds downside risk.

  • Receiving yards: Waddle 67.5Over -122 / Under -118; target share likely rises with Hill out.

Note: Prices include juice. Player leans carry injury volatility. Re-check status near kickoff.

Final Summary

Los Angeles brings a strong explosive run profile into a defence that has given up chunk gains on the ground. That sets a clear path for the Chargers to control tempo, protect Herbert, and win the field position battle. Their weakness is pass protection, and it could still show up if they face long-yardage snaps.

Miami can answer by staying sharp on third downs. If Tua is active and comfortable, the Dolphins can sustain drives with Waddle as the primary target and a zone run game that still flashes explosion when healthy. Without Tyreek, the explosive pass ceiling is lower, so red zone efficiency must remain a strength.

The market prices this a tight but Chargers-leaning game at -4.5 with a total around 45.5. Given the injuries, expect a possession contest where situational football decides it: third downs, red zone calls, and a couple of explosives on the ground. Manage exposure, respect the juice, and build slips around confirmed actives.

Statistical Battle Boards

Viewing: MIA Offense vs LAC Defense
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Total Points107#1898#23MIA advantage
Total Points Per Game21.4#2119.6#6LAC advantage
Total Touchdowns13#139#4LAC advantage
Passing Touchdowns10#74#2LAC advantage
Rushing Touchdowns2#265#20LAC advantage
Other Touchdowns1#50#9MIA advantage
Total Kicking Points27#3042#9LAC advantage
Total Two Point Conversions1#141#5LAC advantage
Kick Extra Points12#116#30MIA advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Net Passing Yards982#18861#27MIA advantage
Net Passing Yards Per Game196#21172#29MIA advantage
Passer Rating98.6#1477.3#30MIA advantage
Passing Attempts158#17154#13LAC advantage
Completions111#1191#26MIA advantage
Completion Percentage70.3#759.1#5LAC advantage
Passing 1st downs60#737#3LAC advantage
Passing 1st Down %74.1#144.0#2MIA advantage
Longest Pass47#2452#17LAC advantage
Passing Fumbles Lost1#110#32MIA advantage
Receiving Targets155#15147#20MIA advantage
Receptions111#1191#6LAC advantage
Receiving Yards After Catch507#20534#19LAC advantage
YAC Average4.6#225.9#30MIA advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Rushing Yards411#29608#19LAC advantage
Rushing Yards Per Game82.2#30122#15LAC advantage
Rushing Attempts97#30127#15LAC advantage
Yards Per Rush Attempt4.2#194.8#7LAC advantage
Rushing 1st downs19#3136#21LAC advantage
20+ Yard Rushing Plays2#182#23MIA advantage
Long Rushing26#2241#16LAC advantage
Rushing Fumbles2#182#23MIA advantage
Rushing Fumbles Lost0#271#17LAC advantage