• Chargers run juice vs Dolphins run leaks: LAC Explosive Run Rate 6.8% (95th pct) meets MIA Explosive Run Allowed 10.2%.

• LAC pass game lacks vertical bite: Deep Pass Explosive Rate 2.1% (6th pct) suggests shorter, possession throws to sustain drives.

• Third downs favour Miami’s offence: Dolphins Third Down Conversion 48.3% and Third-and-Long 44.1% are elite; keeps them in games.

• Protection is a swing variable: Chargers Sack Rate Allowed 8.6% with LT Rashawn Slater on IR and LT Joe Alt Questionable raises hit risk for Herbert.

• Red zone split: Miami Red Zone TD Rate 76.9% is a strength, while the Chargers’ Red Zone TD Rate 38.5% on offence is a weakness.

• QB health matters: Tua Questionable (leg) ties directly to Miami’s explosive pass and third-down traits. If limited, upside drops.

• Anchor spread: Chargers -4.5 (+104) vs Dolphins +4.5 (-119). Off the key number of -3, so variance rises late.

• Anchor total: 45.5 with Over +110 / Under -161. Pricing implies the market leans to a lower-scoring game.

• Anytime TD prices: Jaylen Waddle +152, Keenan Allen +184, De’Von Achane -116 (status questionable). Prices reflect role shifts without Tyreek.

• Passing yards: Herbert 253.5 — Under -120 / Over -118; deep explosiveness is low and protection is shaky.

• Passing yards: Tua 224.5 — Under -120 / Over -118; Tyreek IR plus Q tag adds downside risk.

• Receiving yards: Waddle 67.5 — Over -122 / Under -118; target share likely rises with Hill out.

Note: Prices include juice. Player leans carry injury volatility. Re-check status near kickoff.

Los Angeles brings a strong explosive run profile into a defence that has given up chunk gains on the ground. That sets a clear path for the Chargers to control tempo, protect Herbert, and win the field position battle. Their weakness is pass protection, and it could still show up if they face long-yardage snaps.

Miami can answer by staying sharp on third downs. If Tua is active and comfortable, the Dolphins can sustain drives with Waddle as the primary target and a zone run game that still flashes explosion when healthy. Without Tyreek, the explosive pass ceiling is lower, so red zone efficiency must remain a strength.

The market prices this a tight but Chargers-leaning game at -4.5 with a total around 45.5. Given the injuries, expect a possession contest where situational football decides it: third downs, red zone calls, and a couple of explosives on the ground. Manage exposure, respect the juice, and build slips around confirmed actives.