• Rams downfield bite: Los Angeles posts a 10.2% deep pass explosive rate (best-tier), which stresses a Jacksonville defense that sits mid-pack against explosive passes.

• Run wall in horns: The Rams allow 2.0% explosive runs, a top-tier number that can cap Etienne’s chunk plays.

• Havoc meter: Jacksonville’s 3.6% turnover rate (97th percentile) can flip possessions if Stafford gets late to a read.

• Money downs: L.A. owns a strong third-down stop rate 63.9% (80th pct), which matches up with Jacksonville’s 35.4% third-down offense (22nd pct).

• Inside the 20: Rams defense has allowed TDs on 39.4% of red-zone trips (94th pct), a stiff test for a Jags offense at 55.0%.

• Context on small samples: Some situational edges, like fourth down (JAX 66.7% on just 9 tries), come on small samples and carry extra variance.

• Spread: Rams -3.0 (-106). L.A.’s 10.2% deep explosive rate plus a sturdy run D sets a path to separation if Jacksonville stalls on early downs.

• Total: Under 46.5 (-141) or pass due to juice. Rams red-zone D 39.4% TD allowed and both teams’ 76.9% field-goal accuracy suggest points can leak away.

• Rams Team Total Over 23.5 (-122). Downfield rate 12.0% explosive passes overall supports mid-20s scoring if one star WR suits up.

• Jaguars Team Total Under 20.5 (-123). L.A. third-down stop rate 63.9% plus elite run explosives suppression can squeeze drives.

• Matthew Stafford Over 250.5 pass yds (-119). Deep shots are live; JAX pass rush ranks low in pressure-to-sack conversion 3.1%.

• Travis Etienne Under 60.5 rush yds (-119). Rams allow 2.0% explosive runs; script may tilt Jacksonville toward short passes.

Note the juice on the Under and anytime markets. Props tied to Questionable players carry volatility; always check inactives.

This sets up as a Rams passing script against a Jaguars defense that hunts takeaways. If Los Angeles protects and one of Nacua or Adams plays, the explosive edge tilts blue and gold.

Jacksonville’s path is cleaner pockets and quick throws. The Rams erase big runs, so Etienne may need volume over splash plays. Third downs and red-zone trips should decide the cover.

From a numbers view, Rams -3.0 (-106) is a fair anchor. The Under 46.5 lines up with red-zone and special-teams inefficiency, but the price is steep. Team totals fit the matchup: modest confidence on Rams Over 23.5 and Jags Under 20.5.

Bottom line: explosives favor L.A., while turnovers are Jacksonville’s equalizer. If the Rams avoid the big mistake, their downfield edge and run defense travel in London.