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TEN
LAR
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Tennessee’s offense struggled to stay on schedule. Third downs were a problem, and protection broke down. Now the Titans face a Rams front that converts pressure to sacks at an 10.3% rate (81st percentile; 2025 sample). Rookie QB Cam Ward has talent, but he needs cleaner pockets and shorter distances on third down.
The Rams bring pop through the air. Their explosive pass rate (gains of 15+ yards) sits at 19.4% (97th percentile; 31-play sample). That pairs with Matthew Stafford’s comfort in the intermediate and deep windows. The catch: Los Angeles’ offensive line is dinged (Kevin Dotson, Steve Avila, Alaric Jackson all Questionable), which could force quicker throws.
Add in Titans injuries at receiver (Calvin Ridley Questionable) and a low team total (17.5), and the board leans to a slower, defensive game. The Rams have the cleaner paths to points, but lay the number knowing the juice and variance.
Current Season Form
TEN
AwayLAR
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-07 | @ DEN | L 12-20 | L 8.5 | u42.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | vs HOU | L 14-23 | L 2.5 | o36.5 |
| 2024-12-29 | @ JAX | L 13-20 | L -1.0 | u38.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | @ IND | L 30-38 | L 4.0 | o42.5 |
| 2024-12-15 | vs CIN | L 27-37 | L -6.0 | o46.5 |
| 2024-12-08 | vs JAX | L 6-10 | L 3.0 | u40.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | @ WAS | L 19-42 | L 6.0 | o45.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | @ HOU | W 32-27 | L 8.0 | o40.5 |
| 2024-11-17 | vs MIN | L 13-23 | L -6.0 | u40.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | @ LAC | L 17-27 | L 8.0 | o40.0 |
Key Insights
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Titans’ third-down conversion is 14.3% (3rd percentile; sample 14).
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Rams’ third-down stop rate is 77.8% (97th percentile; small sample 9).
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Rams’ explosive pass rate is 19.4% (97th percentile; sample 31); deep explosive 12.9% (94th; sample 31).
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Titans’ sack rate allowed is 15.2% (sample 33); Rams pressure-to-sack is 10.3% (81st; sample 29).
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Rams’ sack rate allowed is 9.7% (weakness; sample 31) with three OL starters Questionable.
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Titans generate turnovers at 4.2% (91st percentile; sample 71), live-ball variance is real.
Betting Insights
Spread: Rams -3.5 (-143). Edge comes from TEN’s 14.3% third-down rate vs LAR’s 77.8% third-down stops (small sample caveat).
Total: Under 41.5 (-127). Markets expect a slog; TEN injuries and third-down issues reinforce it.
Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Pass TDs (-109). LAR explosive pass rate 19.4% (97th percentile).
Cam Ward Under 204.5 Pass Yards (-120). Sack risk + third-down holes cap volume.
Puka Nacua Over 81.5 Receiving Yards (-119). LAR deep/explosive pass strength; Titans’ top CB L’Jarius Sneed is Questionable.
Titans Team Total Under 17.5 (-128). Offense still in build mode; field-goal drives more likely than TDs.
Final Summary
Los Angeles’ OL injuries are a real concern. They could push Sean McVay to a quicker, rhythm passing script and more screens and play-action. That still supports LAR’s explosive tendencies while protecting Stafford.
Tennessee needs a clean game: fewer sacks, fewer penalties, and shorter third downs. With Ridley Questionable and the run game light on explosive rates, sustained drives are tough.
Our card leans Rams and the Under, with Stafford and Puka carrying the passing load. Price sensitivity matters here, the juice is heavy on several markets. Bet within your limits and expect swingy variance on turnovers and sacks.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 14 | #23 | 20 | #18 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 14 | #23 | 20 | #18 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 2 | #23 | 2 | #15 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 1 | #25 | 1 | #14 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 1 | #20 | 1 | #17 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 0 | #6 | 0 | #2 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 2 | #31 | 8 | #13 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 0 | #29 | 0 | #5 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 2 | #20 | 2 | #20 | 🏈 |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 224 | #10 | 166 | #21 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 224 | #10 | 166 | #21 | |
| Passer Rating | 109 | #8 | 60 | #28 | |
| Passing Attempts | 29 | #23 | 40 | #27 | |
| Completions | 21 | #17 | 25 | #8 | |
| Completion Percentage | 72.4 | #10 | 62.5 | #12 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 13 | #9 | 9 | #15 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 72.2 | #7 | 45 | #9 | |
| Longest Pass | 36 | #11 | 22 | #29 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 1 | #5 | 1 | #2 | |
| Receiving Targets | 28 | #23 | 37 | #8 | |
| Receptions | 21 | #17 | 25 | #24 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 68 | #25 | 94 | #18 | |
| YAC Average | 3.2 | #27 | 3.8 | #11 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 72 | #24 | 151 | #26 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 72 | #24 | 151 | #7 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 25 | #18 | 30 | #25 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 2.9 | #26 | 5 | #8 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 3 | #26 | 5 | #13 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 0 | #22 | 1 | #9 | |
| Long Rushing | 9 | #29 | 50 | #3 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 0 | #22 | 1 | #9 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 0 | #28 | 0 | #6 | |
Game Preview of Los Angeles Rams @ Tennessee Titans. Week 2 of 2025 NFL Season
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