NFLGame PreviewsLV VS IND Preview Week5 05-Oct-2025

Game Preview of Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts. Week 5 of 2025 NFL Season

LV logo

LV

1-3-0
@
05OCT25
01:00pm
IND logo

IND

3-1-0
Lucas Oil Stadium

Game Preview

The Raiders visit the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. The market lists a high total near 48.5 and a one-score spread.

Las Vegas brings boom-or-bust traits. The Raiders hit explosive passes at a top-tier rate, which means gains of 15 or more yards through the air. But protection is a worry. LT Kolton Miller is on injured reserve, rookie LT Charles Grant is Out, and center depth is thin. That can stress Geno Smith, who needs time to push the ball.

Indianapolis plays cleaner football. The Colts’ line protects well, and their pass game has created chunk gains too. Their defense has held down deep shots, but they’re thin in the secondary with Charvarius Ward Out and several starters Questionable.

Styles point to a game of swings. If the Colts limit Las Vegas explosives and stay upright on offense, they can control tempo. If the Raiders unlock the run with Ashton Jeanty and land a few deep strikes, this can trade scores.

Current Season Form

LV logo

LV

Away
Record:1-3-0
ATS:1-3-0
O/U:2-2-0
IND logo

IND

Home
Record:3-1-0
ATS:3-1-0
O/U:2-2-0

Head-to-Head Summary

Record:
2-3Winner logo
ATS:3-2-0
O/U:4-1-0

Past Results

DateOpponentResultATSO/U
2025-09-28@ LARL 20-27L 3.5u49.5
2025-09-21@ TENW 41-20W +-6.0o43.5
2025-09-14vs DENW 29-28L -2.5o43.5
2025-09-07vs MIAW 33-8W +1.5u47.5
2025-01-05vs JAXW 26-23W +3.5o45.5
2024-12-29@ NYGL 33-45L -7.5o40.5
2024-12-22vs TENW 38-30W +4.0o42.5
2024-12-15@ DENL 13-31L 4.5o43.5
2024-12-01@ NEW 25-24W +-2.5o41.5
2024-11-24vs DETL 6-24L -7.0u50.5

Key Insights

 

  • IND caps deep shots: Colts allow explosive passes on only 4.8% of attempts (84th percentile). That matches up with LV’s strength, a 10.6% explosive pass rate (95th).

  • Protection edge favors IND: Colts allow sacks on just 3.2% of dropbacks (84th), while the Raiders generate sacks at 5.8% (38th).

  • LV can pop runs: Raiders post a 5.0% explosive run rate (59th). Colts allow explosive runs 7.2% of the time (16th), which can spring Jeanty.

  • Drive finishers vs finish defense: IND owns a 100% long-drive efficiency (97th percentile, small sample 11). LV’s defense is strong in the red zone at 38.5% TDs allowed (91st), so Colts may need patience.

  • Situational downs: Colts struggle on third-and-long (10.5% conversion, 6th percentile). Raiders’ overall third-down stop rate is average (61.5%, 53rd), making early-down gains vital.

  • Injuries shape matchups: LV’s tackle and center losses hit pass protection traits. IND’s secondary injuries (Ward Out; Kenny Moore II Questionable) can open windows for LV receivers if those absences stack up.

 

Betting Insights

  • Anchor spread: Colts -6.5 (-119). Market doesn’t show a -3 zone, so -6.5 is the closest listed number.

  • Anchor total: 48.5 with Over -110 and Under -137. The juice leans to the Under even at a high total.

  • Team totals: Colts 27.5 (Over -114, Under -125); Raiders 20.0 (Over -114, Under -125). These imply a one-score Colts win.

  • Geno Smith Under 232.5 pass yds (-120): IND limits explosive passes (84th percentile), and LV ranks 3rd percentile in long-drive efficiency, which can cap volume.

  • Ashton Jeanty Over 63.5 rush yds (-120): Colts rank 16th percentile in explosive runs allowed. One crease can flip this number.

  • Jakobi Meyers Over 60.5 rec yds (-119): LV sits 95th percentile in explosive pass rate and 100th in scheme-created explosives. IND has a starting corner Out, adding opportunity.

  • Daniel Jones Over 226.5 pass yds (-120): Colts protect well (3.2% sack rate allowed, 84th). That supports attempts and yardage.

    Always check inactives. Questionable tags on key Colts defenders and LV’s tight ends raise variance. Price shop to manage juice.

Final Summary

Indianapolis has the cleaner profile. The Colts protect their quarterback and can create chunk gains without taking many sacks. Their defense usually erases deep balls, which is the lever you pull against Las Vegas.

The Raiders still have a path. A leaky Colts run defense against explosives gives Ashton Jeanty room to matter. If Las Vegas hits one or two schemed shots, they can stay inside the number.

Injuries are the swing. LV’s missing tackle and center hurt long-developing routes. For IND, an already thin secondary could wobble if more starters sit. Those statuses will shape both the total and receiver props.

Net-net, the prices show a favored Colts team and a total near 48.5 with Under juice. Tie your positions to the trench edges and the explosive-play math, and be ready to adjust once the inactive lists lock.

Statistical Battle Boards

Viewing: IND Offense vs LV Defense
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Total Points123#499#11IND advantage
Total Points Per Game30.8#424.8#22IND advantage
Total Touchdowns11#1110#17IND advantage
Passing Touchdowns4#285#10LV advantage
Rushing Touchdowns7#24#17IND advantage
Other Touchdowns0#141#22IND advantage
Total Kicking Points51#139#3IND advantage
Total Two Point Conversions0#260#29IND advantage
Kick Extra Points12#59#15IND advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Net Passing Yards1044#4913#10IND advantage
Net Passing Yards Per Game261#4228#10IND advantage
Passer Rating103#893#15IND advantage
Passing Attempts121#22131#19LV advantage
Completions87#1286#13IND advantage
Completion Percentage71.9#465.6#16IND advantage
Passing 1st downs51#340#12IND advantage
Passing 1st Down %55.4#1660.6#26IND advantage
Longest Pass75#560#10IND advantage
Passing Fumbles Lost1#120#31IND advantage
Receiving Targets119#20126#11LV advantage
Receptions87#1286#20IND advantage
Receiving Yards After Catch490#8410#12IND advantage
YAC Average5.6#84.8#13IND advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Rushing Yards545#8411#13IND advantage
Rushing Yards Per Game136#8103#20IND advantage
Rushing Attempts121#5102#15IND advantage
Yards Per Rush Attempt4.5#134#20IND advantage
Rushing 1st downs30#721#10IND advantage
20+ Yard Rushing Plays2#162#14LV advantage
Long Rushing68#460#6IND advantage
Rushing Fumbles2#162#14LV advantage
Rushing Fumbles Lost0#221#7LV advantage