• IND caps deep shots: Colts allow explosive passes on only 4.8% of attempts (84th percentile). That matches up with LV’s strength, a 10.6% explosive pass rate (95th).

• Protection edge favors IND: Colts allow sacks on just 3.2% of dropbacks (84th), while the Raiders generate sacks at 5.8% (38th).

• LV can pop runs: Raiders post a 5.0% explosive run rate (59th). Colts allow explosive runs 7.2% of the time (16th), which can spring Jeanty.

• Drive finishers vs finish defense: IND owns a 100% long-drive efficiency (97th percentile, small sample 11). LV’s defense is strong in the red zone at 38.5% TDs allowed (91st), so Colts may need patience.

• Situational downs: Colts struggle on third-and-long (10.5% conversion, 6th percentile). Raiders’ overall third-down stop rate is average (61.5%, 53rd), making early-down gains vital.

• Injuries shape matchups: LV’s tackle and center losses hit pass protection traits. IND’s secondary injuries (Ward Out; Kenny Moore II Questionable) can open windows for LV receivers if those absences stack up.

• Anchor spread: Colts -6.5 (-119). Market doesn’t show a -3 zone, so -6.5 is the closest listed number.

• Anchor total: 48.5 with Over -110 and Under -137. The juice leans to the Under even at a high total.

• Team totals: Colts 27.5 (Over -114, Under -125); Raiders 20.0 (Over -114, Under -125). These imply a one-score Colts win.

• Geno Smith Under 232.5 pass yds (-120): IND limits explosive passes (84th percentile), and LV ranks 3rd percentile in long-drive efficiency, which can cap volume.

• Ashton Jeanty Over 63.5 rush yds (-120): Colts rank 16th percentile in explosive runs allowed. One crease can flip this number.

• Jakobi Meyers Over 60.5 rec yds (-119): LV sits 95th percentile in explosive pass rate and 100th in scheme-created explosives. IND has a starting corner Out, adding opportunity.

• Daniel Jones Over 226.5 pass yds (-120): Colts protect well (3.2% sack rate allowed, 84th). That supports attempts and yardage.

  Always check inactives. Questionable tags on key Colts defenders and LV’s tight ends raise variance. Price shop to manage juice.

Indianapolis has the cleaner profile. The Colts protect their quarterback and can create chunk gains without taking many sacks. Their defense usually erases deep balls, which is the lever you pull against Las Vegas.

The Raiders still have a path. A leaky Colts run defense against explosives gives Ashton Jeanty room to matter. If Las Vegas hits one or two schemed shots, they can stay inside the number.

Injuries are the swing. LV’s missing tackle and center hurt long-developing routes. For IND, an already thin secondary could wobble if more starters sit. Those statuses will shape both the total and receiver props.

Net-net, the prices show a favored Colts team and a total near 48.5 with Under juice. Tie your positions to the trench edges and the explosive-play math, and be ready to adjust once the inactive lists lock.