• Chiefs finish drives: Kansas City has a 68.0% red-zone TD rate. That matches a Raiders defense that has allowed TDs on 57.1% of trips.

• Pass pro edge to KC: The Chiefs allow sacks on only 4.5% of dropbacks. The Raiders’ rush sits mid-pack at 5.6%.

• Raiders can pop explosives: Las Vegas posts a 9.8% explosive pass rate (gains of 15+). The Chiefs have allowed 8.2% explosive passes.

• LV struggles to sustain: Long-drive efficiency is just 65.0% (small sample 20 drives), which can cap time of possession.

• KC offensive shape: Shotgun rate is 65.0% (very high). That supports quick-game throws to the middle and flats.

• Injury impact: The Raiders’ OL is heavily dinged (two tackles and the center out/IR). The Chiefs list their LT and multiple WRs as Questionable, which adds volatility to their pass plan.

• Spread, anchor: Chiefs -11.5 (-122). KC’s sack rate allowed 4.5% vs LV’s 8.8% sacks allowed and Raiders’ OL injuries tilt the efficiency gap.

• Total, anchor: 46.0 — Under -125 / Over -111. KC’s no-huddle rate is just 2.3%, and LV’s long-drive efficiency is 65.0%; both can slow total plays.

• Chiefs team total Over 28.5 (+100): KC converts the red zone at 68.0%; LV has given up TDs on 57.1% of red-zone trips.

• Raiders team total Under 16.0 (-115): Protection issues plus 65.0% long-drive efficiency and a 38.9% red-zone TD rate point lower.

• Geno Smith Under 200.5 passing (-120): KC’s third-down stop rate is 61.2% and LV’s sacks-allowed rate is 8.8%, both negative for volume.

• Travis Kelce Anytime TD (+148): KC’s 68.0% red-zone TD rate gives the star tight end steady scoring equity.

Note the juice on several markets. Props tied to players listed Questionable carry extra variance. Always confirm status before betting.

Kansas City owns the cleaner edges: pass protection, red-zone finish, and a stable third-down profile. Those traits often decide double-digit spreads. If the Chiefs play on schedule, they can stretch a lead.

Las Vegas needs splash plays to hang around. The Raiders have that in their toolkit, but the injured line raises sack and penalty risk. Long fields make it tougher to cash in.

The board reflects that gap. We anchored to Chiefs -11.5 and a total at 46.0. Team totals split the difference, with KC near 29 and LV near 16.

Expect Kansas City to lean on shotgun and quick game, then hit play-action shots when coverage bites. If the Raiders protect well enough to free a few explosives, they can make this sweaty. If not, the Chiefs’ efficiency should carry the day.