• Falcons smother big plays through the air: ATL’s 3.0% explosive-pass allowed rate ranks in the 97th percentile, matching their pass-rush profile (8.2% sack rate generated, 89th pct).

• Dolphins’ offense is less explosive without Hill: MIA’s explosive pass rate 5.3% (16th pct) with a low scheme explosive rate 1.0% (3rd pct), meaning fewer schemed chunk plays.

• Ground game edge for ATL: Miami has allowed 9.8% explosive runs (raw rate), which aligns with Bijan’s ability to punish light boxes.

• Third-down profiles diverge: MIA offense converts 41.7% on third down (72nd pct), but MIA defense ranks 12th percentile in third-down stop rate, extending opponent drives.

• Red zone tug-of-war: ATL offense lags in red-zone TD rate (44.4%) while MIA offense is stronger there (66.7%). Short fields could decide this.

• Availability shapes the script: Penix (Q), Waddle (Q), Achane (Q), Jake Matthews (Q), and Drake London (Q) all carry late-week volatility.

• Spread anchor: Falcons -7.5 (-118). The market bakes in Atlanta’s pass defense edge and Miami’s turnover risk.

• Total anchor: 44.5 with Over -119 / Under -116. Juice is split near even. Game flow hinges on ATL’s red-zone finishing and MIA explosive runs.

• Team totals: Falcons Over 26.5 (-127) if Penix and OL are in; Dolphins Under 17.5 (-109) correlates with ATL’s explosive-pass prevention.

• Tua Tagovailoa Under 205.5 pass yds (-119): ATL’s explosives clamp and pass rush can trim chunks and attempts.

• Bijan Robinson Over 90.5 rush yds (-119): Best-on-worst angle: ATL run game vs MIA’s explosive-run issue.

• Drake London Over 65.5 rec yds (-119) — volatility note: Play only if active; Miami’s secondary is thin.

• De’Von Achane Over 32.5 rec yds (-120) — volatility note: If active, outlet targets vs pressure can pile up fast.

Atlanta deserves to be a strong home favorite. Their defense limits deep shots and creates steady pressure. That’s a tough mix for a Miami offense missing Tyreek Hill and carrying multiple questionable tags. If the Falcons keep Miami behind the sticks, Tua’s line and the Dolphins’ team total can drift under their numbers.

On offense, Atlanta can keep it simple. Ride Bijan. Use motion and quick hitters to manage Penix if his knee limits movement. Miami’s profile shows leakiness against explosive runs, so one or two long gains can swing both the spread and the total.

The total at 44.5 sits in a modest range. If Atlanta stalls in the red zone, an Under -116 ticket can cash even in a clear Falcons win. If Bijan breaks a long one and Atlanta converts short fields, the Over -119 is live late.

Bottom line: the board points to Falcons -7.5 (-118) with derivative support on Tua Under 205.5 (-119) and Bijan Over 90.5 (-119). Treat London and Achane props as news-dependent. Manage stake size, respect the juice, and be ready to adjust when inactives post.