• Miami wins money downs: The Dolphins convert 47.9% on third down, which can extend drives even without deep shots.

• Cleveland’s pass rush is real: The Browns turn pressure into sacks at 7.7%, a top-tier rate, which can test Miami’s timing.

• Red-zone contrast: Miami’s offense scores TDs on 75.0% of trips, while Cleveland’s defense has allowed 73.3% TDs inside the 20.

• Explosive profiles: Miami’s explosive run rate is 7.6% (94th pct), but Cleveland limits explosive runs allowed to 3.3%. That clash could shape early downs.

• Browns offense lacks big plays: Cleveland’s explosive pass rate is 4.7% (low), so they often need long drives to score. Their long-drive efficiency is 72.2% (also low).

• Small-sample note: Big-play touchdown rates for both teams come on limited plays (e.g., Browns sample size 15), so volatility is high on one-shot scores.

• Spread: Browns -3.0 (+102). Their 7.7% sack rate generated can disrupt a Miami pass game that has a 5.1% explosive pass rate and a QB listed Questionable.

• Total: Under 41.0 (-143) is in range if Cleveland’s offense stays low explosive (4.7%) and Miami’s defense holds in space. Juice is heavy; price sensitivity matters.

• Dolphins team total Over 18.5 (-122): Miami’s 75.0% red-zone TD rate matches up with Cleveland’s 73.3% allowed.

• Browns team total Under 20.5 (-128): Cleveland struggles to sustain; 72.2% long-drive efficiency and few chunk passes.

• Quinshon Judkins Over 84.5 rush yds (-119): Miami tagged for 10.4% explosive runs allowed (small-sample caution); Browns can lean run.

• Tua Tagovailoa Under 219.5 pass yds (-120) — volatility (Q): Browns pressure metrics (7.7% sacks) plus Miami’s low 5.1% explosive pass rate.

Props tied to players listed Questionable carry extra variance. Always confirm inactives.

This game likely turns on third down and the red zone. Miami has the edge in both. If that holds, the Dolphins can meet or beat their team total even without Tyreek.

Cleveland’s defense must win with pressure and shorten the game. If Garrett plays and the front gets home, Miami’s passing volume can dip and create more runs and field-position battles.

From a market view, Browns -3.0 (+102) lines up with a home-pressure script, while the Under 41.0 (-143) makes sense if Cleveland’s offense stays methodical. Team totals tell the same story: a lean to Dolphins Over 18.5 and Browns Under 20.5 based on red-zone and explosive-play profiles.

Expect a physical, lower-possession game. The side that finishes drives inside the 20 should own the final score.