• Trenches tilt Detroit: Lions sack rate generated 8.2% vs Vikings sack rate allowed 11.1%.

• Run game leverage: Detroit’s under-center tendency is 63.8% (91st pct), a run-friendly posture vs MIN’s 6.5% explosive runs allowed.

• Scheme pop: Lions’ scheme explosive rate is 5.9% (95th pct), giving them built-in chunk potential.

• Vikings volatility: McCarthy returns with a small NFL sample and faces pressure; Minnesota’s quick-strike rate is elite (4.7%, 100th pct) but boom-bust.

• Situational football: Detroit’s turnover generation 2.7% (94th pct) can create extra possessions.

• Red zone watch: Vikings’ defence allows red-zone TDs at 50.0% (81st pct allowed figure in traits table context); Lions’ red-zone TD rate is 66.7% (77th pct).

• Anchor spread: Lions -8.5 (-116) — edge comes from DET pass rush vs MIN protection and game script for Detroit.

• Anchor total: Over 48.5 (-109) — DET’s scheme explosiveness (95th pct) plus MIN’s explosive plays allowed create scoring paths.

• Lions team total 28.5 Over (-119): Under-center rate and explosive scheme point to 3–4 TD paths.

• Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD (-200): Heavy juice, but matchup fits MIN’s explosive run issues.

• David Montgomery over 48.5 rush (-118): Positive script with a late lead can feed carries.

• Sam LaPorta over 42.5 rec (-120): Scheme usage and middle-field windows vs a banged-up secondary.

• J.J. McCarthy under 215.5 pass (-119): Return spot vs pressure; limited sample and OL concerns.

• Jameson Williams over 42.5 rec (-119): Speed vs a defence allowing 6.4% explosive passes.

Detroit has edges where it counts. The Lions win at the line, generate turnovers, and create explosive plays by design. That fits a home favourite profile.

Minnesota’s path needs clean pockets and a healthy skill group. With McCarthy returning and the line in flux, that is a tough ask on the road. The Vikings do have quick-strike ability, so a few sudden shots are live, but sustaining drives may be hard.

If Detroit controls early downs, the backs should stack efficient carries. That supports a team total angle and props tied to the run game and tight end usage. Explosive shots off play-action can finish drives.

Bottom line: The matchup leans Lions at home with a scoring environment that can reach the high 40s. Manage risk, shop prices, and remember that questionable tags add volatility to player markets.