• MIN deep threat is real: Vikings rank 94th pct in Deep Pass Expl and 91st pct in Explosive Pass Rate.

• LAC pass defense baseline is better than recent form: traits show 81st pct at limiting explosive passes; recent slippage makes it a swing factor.

• Pass rush pressure point: MIN is 97th pct in Sack Rate Generated and Pressure-to-Sack Conversion; LAC’s Sack Rate Allowed sits 36th pct.

• Third-down battle: MIN defense 94th pct stop rate vs LAC offense 88th pct conversion rate.

• Quick-strike profile: MIN is 100th pct in Quick Strike Capability; LAC sits low on that metric, suggesting momentum swings favor Minnesota if they hit explosives.

• Availability matters: Jefferson (Q) for MIN and multiple Chargers OL (Alt, Pipkins, Salyer) could tilt matchups late.

• Anchor spread: Chargers -3.5 (-105). If Alt plays and the OL holds, Herbert’s efficiency vs blitz can carry value at this number.

• Total: 44.0 with Over -139 / Under +100. The juice leans Over, but short-week variance and OL questions keep the Under live at even money.

• Moneyline (regulation): Chargers -175, Vikings +148. Pricing reflects LAC’s home edge and QB stability.

• Justin Herbert Over 254.5 pass yds (-118): depleted RB room plus blitz volume should keep attempts high.

• Jordan Addison Over 51.5 rec yds (-116): matches MIN’s explosive-pass profile; monitor Jefferson’s status for target competition.

• Keenan Allen Over 48.5 rec yds (-120): chain-mover role fits vs heavy blitz; hot read volume can stack yards.

• Justin Herbert Over 15.5 rush yds (-123): blitz often creates scramble lanes; modest number, fair juice.

• Market caution: avoid any props for players listed Out even if a number is posted.

This matchup is set up by pressure and explosives. Minnesota brings one of the league’s best pressure-to-sack profiles and a top-tier deep passing rate. The Chargers counter with a high-functioning third-down offense and an explosive-pass defense that rates well on season data, even if recent weeks haven’t looked the part.

If Joe Alt suits up and the Chargers manage protection, Herbert can beat the blitz with timing routes to Keenan Allen and quick throws to the flats. That path supports Chargers -3.5 at modest juice and Herbert yardage overs. If protection frays, Minnesota’s rush creates short fields and a live dog scenario at +3.5.

The total at 44.0 sits in a tricky zone. Short weeks can suppress execution, but both teams can score in chunks when healthy. With the Over taxed, the Under at +100 is viable if the Chargers’ OL remains banged up and Minnesota has to grind without a fully fit Jefferson.

Bottom line: lean Chargers -3.5 (-105) if Alt is in and reports are positive pre-kick. Pair that with Herbert Over 254.5 (-118) and one receiver Over (Allen 48.5 or Addison 51.5) based on inactives. Manage stake size, respect the juice, and be ready to pivot on final injury news.