NFLGame PreviewsNE VS BUF Preview Week5 05-Oct-2025

Game Preview of New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills. Week 5 of 2025 NFL Season

NE logo

NE

2-2-0
@
06OCT25
08:20pm
BUF logo

BUF

4-0-0
Highmark Stadium

Game Preview

The Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots on Sunday at Highmark Stadium in Week 5. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM ET. It’s a primetime-feel matchup with AFC East stakes, Buffalo’s “White Out” crowd, and Stefon Diggs returning to Orchard Park for the first time as an opponent.

Josh Allen continues his MVP defense. The Bills are one of only two undefeated teams and lead the league in scoring over 33 points per game. Running back James Cook is making history with eight straight games with a rushing touchdown.

New England enters 2-2, led by rookie quarterback Drake Maye. The 23-year-old has been sharp, completing 74% of his passes. But this is his toughest test yet against Buffalo’s top-ranked pass defense.

Oddsmakers have the Bills as 9.5-point favorites. The total sits at 49.5. New England has momentum after a 42-13 blowout of Carolina, but Buffalo’s 14-game home win streak looms large.

Current Season Form

NE logo

NE

Away
Record:2-2-0
ATS:2-2-0
O/U:2-2-0
BUF logo

BUF

Home
Record:4-0-0
ATS:2-2-0
O/U:3-1-0

Head-to-Head Summary

Record:
2-3Winner logo
ATS:4-1-0
O/U:4-1-0

Past Results

DateOpponentResultATSO/U
2025-09-28vs NOW 31-19W +15.5o48.5
2025-09-18vs MIAW 31-21W +12.5o50.5
2025-09-14@ NYJW 30-10W +-6.0u47.5
2025-09-07vs BALW 41-40L -1.5o50.5
2025-01-26@ KCL 29-32L 1.5o49.5
2025-01-19vs BALW 27-25W +-1.5o51.5
2025-01-12vs DENW 31-7W +7.5u48.5
2025-01-05@ NEL 16-23L -3.0o36.5
2024-12-29vs NYJW 40-14W +10.0o44.5
2024-12-22vs NEW 24-21W +14.0u48.0

Key Insights

 

  • Buffalo’s defense allows explosive passes on just 3.7% of attempts, a top-10 mark. That directly challenges New England’s deep-pass strength (6.7%, 94th percentile).

  • Patriots defense is leaking touchdowns in the red zone at an 87.5% clip. That’s a mismatch against James Cook and a Bills offense scoring on 63.2% of red-zone trips.

  • Buffalo’s run defense is a weakness, giving up explosive runs on 8.4% of plays (bottom 3rd in NFL). If Rhamondre Stevenson plays, New England may try to exploit it.

  • Patriots O-line issues (Moses and Wilson both Questionable) could leave Maye exposed against a Bills pass rush that converts pressures into sacks at 7.2%.

  • Injuries in Buffalo’s front seven (Milano, Bernard, Oliver all Q) may further open run lanes for the Patriots.

  • Emotional layer: Stefon Diggs, a four-time Pro Bowler in Buffalo, faces his old team fresh off a 100-yard game with New England.

 

Betting Insights

  • Spread: Bills -9.5 (-105). Buffalo has won 14 straight at home; New England is 2-2 but has faced weaker competition.

  • Total: Under 49.5 (-122). Bills pass defense elite; Patriots red-zone defense poor, but injuries could balance pace.

  • Anytime TD: James Cook (-149). Eight straight games with a rushing score, heavy red-zone usage.

  • Anytime TD: Josh Allen (-122). QB run packages effective inside the 10.

  • Prop: Stefon Diggs Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-122). Motivated return, volatility if leg injury flares up.

  • Prop: Drake Maye Under 223.5 Passing Yards (-119). Rookie QB up against No. 1 pass defense (125.8 yds allowed).

  • Prop: Dalton Kincaid Anytime TD (+225). Patriots’ red-zone defense among worst in NFL.

Final Summary

This game has all the storylines. Diggs is back in Buffalo. Allen is chasing another MVP season. Maye is trying to prove he belongs at the top level. And Bills Mafia will bring the noise in a “White Out” setting.

From a matchup standpoint, Buffalo has the edges. Their pass defense ranks first in the league. Their offense is balanced with Allen’s dual-threat ability and Cook’s historic touchdown streak.

The Patriots’ path to an upset is clear but narrow. They need to run the ball effectively against a banged-up Bills front, and hope Diggs delivers against his old team. But with multiple key players Questionable, including Diggs himself, it’s a risky bet.

Buffalo has been unbeatable at home for over two years. With the spread near double digits and the total near 50, the market sees the Bills keeping control. For bettors, the safer angle may lie in player props like Cook or Allen finding the end zone, and Maye struggling to reach his yardage mark.

Statistical Battle Boards

Viewing: BUF Offense vs NE Defense
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Total Points133#281#22BUF advantage
Total Points Per Game33.3#220.3#10BUF advantage
Total Touchdowns16#210#15BUF advantage
Passing Touchdowns7#137#20BUF advantage
Rushing Touchdowns9#12#3BUF advantage
Other Touchdowns0#201#25BUF advantage
Total Kicking Points37#521#30BUF advantage
Total Two Point Conversions0#180#23BUF advantage
Kick Extra Points13#39#13BUF advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Net Passing Yards962#6966#7BUF advantage
Net Passing Yards Per Game240#6242#7BUF advantage
Passer Rating110#4103#6BUF advantage
Passing Attempts123#19125#14NE advantage
Completions86#1489#11NE advantage
Completion Percentage69.9#771.2#28BUF advantage
Passing 1st downs49#548#25BUF advantage
Passing 1st Down %50.5#2664#29BUF advantage
Longest Pass51#1747#18BUF advantage
Passing Fumbles Lost0#300#21NE advantage
Receiving Targets119#19119#20BUF advantage
Receptions86#1489#22BUF advantage
Receiving Yards After Catch536#3522#30BUF advantage
YAC Average6.2#35.9#27BUF advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Rushing Yards654#1310#3BUF advantage
Rushing Yards Per Game164#177.5#30BUF advantage
Rushing Attempts133#193#4BUF advantage
Yards Per Rush Attempt4.9#73.3#31BUF advantage
Rushing 1st downs38#119#7BUF advantage
20+ Yard Rushing Plays4#61#21BUF advantage
Long Rushing44#1222#27BUF advantage
Rushing Fumbles4#61#21BUF advantage
Rushing Fumbles Lost0#300#21NE advantage