• Buffalo’s defense allows explosive passes on just 3.7% of attempts, a top-10 mark. That directly challenges New England’s deep-pass strength (6.7%, 94th percentile).

• Patriots defense is leaking touchdowns in the red zone at an 87.5% clip. That’s a mismatch against James Cook and a Bills offense scoring on 63.2% of red-zone trips.

• Buffalo’s run defense is a weakness, giving up explosive runs on 8.4% of plays (bottom 3rd in NFL). If Rhamondre Stevenson plays, New England may try to exploit it.

• Patriots O-line issues (Moses and Wilson both Questionable) could leave Maye exposed against a Bills pass rush that converts pressures into sacks at 7.2%.

• Injuries in Buffalo’s front seven (Milano, Bernard, Oliver all Q) may further open run lanes for the Patriots.

• Emotional layer: Stefon Diggs, a four-time Pro Bowler in Buffalo, faces his old team fresh off a 100-yard game with New England.

• Spread: Bills -9.5 (-105). Buffalo has won 14 straight at home; New England is 2-2 but has faced weaker competition.

• Total: Under 49.5 (-122). Bills pass defense elite; Patriots red-zone defense poor, but injuries could balance pace.

• Anytime TD: James Cook (-149). Eight straight games with a rushing score, heavy red-zone usage.

• Anytime TD: Josh Allen (-122). QB run packages effective inside the 10.

• Prop: Stefon Diggs Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-122). Motivated return, volatility if leg injury flares up.

• Prop: Drake Maye Under 223.5 Passing Yards (-119). Rookie QB up against No. 1 pass defense (125.8 yds allowed).

• Prop: Dalton Kincaid Anytime TD (+225). Patriots’ red-zone defense among worst in NFL.

This game has all the storylines. Diggs is back in Buffalo. Allen is chasing another MVP season. Maye is trying to prove he belongs at the top level. And Bills Mafia will bring the noise in a “White Out” setting.

From a matchup standpoint, Buffalo has the edges. Their pass defense ranks first in the league. Their offense is balanced with Allen’s dual-threat ability and Cook’s historic touchdown streak.

The Patriots’ path to an upset is clear but narrow. They need to run the ball effectively against a banged-up Bills front, and hope Diggs delivers against his old team. But with multiple key players Questionable, including Diggs himself, it’s a risky bet.

Buffalo has been unbeatable at home for over two years. With the spread near double digits and the total near 50, the market sees the Bills keeping control. For bettors, the safer angle may lie in player props like Cook or Allen finding the end zone, and Maye struggling to reach his yardage mark.