• Anchor market: Dolphins -3.5 (+126) / Patriots +3.5 (-185).

• Total centred at 43.5 (Over -112 / Under -115).

• NE pass rush: 10.5% sack rate generated (84th pct); 10.5% pressure-to-sack conversion (84th pct).

• MIA run pop: 16.7% explosive run rate (100th pct), small sample (12 carries).

• NE defense flagged for explosives allowed through the air (24.3% on 37 attempts, early sample).

• Injury swing pieces: Tyreek Hill (Q), De’Von Achane (Q); multiple Miami OL absences; Stefon Diggs (Q), Rhamondre Stevenson (Q).

• Against the Spread: Lean Patriots +3.5 (-185). Price is steep, but low totals boost the value of key numbers; injuries tilt volatility toward the dog.

• Total: Lean Under 43.5 (-115). Miami OL issues plus Questionable playmakers on both sides support a slower script.

• Jaylen Waddle over 48.5 receiving yards (-122): NE’s early “explosive pass allowed” mark suggests room for Waddle to win in space.

• Hunter Henry over 3.5 receptions (+100): Chain-mover role fits a short, efficient plan for Maye on third downs.

• Drake Maye over 25.5 rushing yards (-119): Mobility can offset pressure; Miami’s sack creation sits modestly at 3.3%.

• Tua Tagovailoa over 1.5 pass TDs (-109): Leans on chunk chances vs NE’s early leakage; reduce stake if Tyreek (Q) is limited.

The market has this near a coin flip by power rating, with books letting you choose your adventure on numbers between -1.5 and -3.5. With the anchor at -3.5, the plus side holds more practical appeal in a low-total game. Miami’s offense can still flash, but its line is thin and key skill players carry tags.

New England’s pass rush is the most bankable unit in this matchup. If it speeds up Tua and forces short throws, drives can stall. Miami’s best counter is the run game’s early explosiveness, though that’s based on a small sample and gets tougher if the line shuffles again.

Our card tilts conservative: take the points with New England at +3.5 (accepting the juice) and lean Under 43.5. For props, target Waddle’s yards and Henry’s catches at reasonable prices, then sprinkle Maye rush yards. If Hill is fully in, Tua’s TDs prop becomes more playable; if not, scale back.

As always, price matters. Shop numbers, respect late injury news, and size bets for variance in a game that could hinge on two or three explosive plays.