• Pats choke off big runs: New England allows 2.1% explosive runs. That pairs with Tennessee’s 2.4% explosive run rate, which is near the bottom.

• Third-down gap favors NE: The Patriots convert 41.4% on third down. The Titans’ defense ranks low with a 55.2% stop rate.

• Titans protection is a stress point: Tennessee’s offense allows sacks on 9.4% of dropbacks. New England converts pressure to sacks at 6.7%.

• Red zone push-pull: New England’s defense has allowed TDs on 71.4% of red-zone trips (small sample, 14 plays), which can help a struggling Titans offense if it gets there.

• TEN run D can force the pass: Titans allow only 2.0% explosive runs, so New England may need more play-action and quick game.

• Pats deep shots vs TEN coverage: New England’s 6.7% deep-pass explosiveness is strong, while Tennessee’s defense has kept explosive passes in check at 6.6% allowed.

• Spread, anchor: Patriots -7.0 (-115). Matchup leans to NE on third downs (41.4%) and against a line allowing 9.4% sacks.

• Total, anchor: 43.0 with Under -123 / Over -105. Titans’ offense sits near the bottom on third down (30.5%), which can drain possessions.

• Titans team total Under 16.5 (-112): Low 30.5% third-down conversion and high sack rate work against sustained drives.

• Cam Ward Under 214.5 passing (-120), volatility (Q): Pressure and third-down issues can cap attempts and yards.

• Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+205): NE red-zone TD rate 60.0% vs TEN red-zone TD allowed 58.8% gives fair touchdown equity at a plus price.

• Chig Okonkwo Over 39.5 receiving (-122): NE has allowed 12.7% explosive passes; a TE-friendly path if game script trails.

Note the juice on several markets. Props tied to players listed Questionable carry extra variance. Check inactives before betting.

New England owns the cleaner down-to-down edges. The Pats win more third downs and stop explosive runs. That usually travels well. If their questionable playmakers suit up, the ceiling rises.

Tennessee needs cleaner protection and a spark from its skill players. If Cam Ward plays and the Titans stay ahead of the sticks, they can trade punts and wait for a mistake. The margin for error is thin, especially in the red area.

From a numbers view, the board lines up with Patriots -7.0 and a modest total around 43.0. Titans’ scoring props lean Under unless they flip the third-down script.

Expect a physical game with long fields. The team that protects its quarterback and finishes inside the 20 should walk out with the cover.