• Turnover edge favors Chicago: The Bears’ turnover generation rate is 3.9% (top of the league). That fits their identity and shortens fields.

• Saints explosive pass game is limited: New Orleans’ explosive pass rate is 3.8% (very low), which reduces quick-strike potential if they fall behind.

• Money-down mismatch: Chicago’s third-down stop rate is 68.8% (elite) versus a Saints offense at 37.7% on third downs.

• Red-zone stress on New Orleans: The Saints have allowed 72.2% touchdowns in the red zone, which can fuel Bears scoring.

• Quick points gear exists for CHI: The Bears’ quick strike capability is 3.3% (88th pct), useful if they win field position.

• Small-sample note: Chicago’s big play TD rate 30% comes from 20 big plays, so expect some regression with more snaps.

• Spread: Bears -5.0 (-105). Chicago’s defense owns the leverage with a 68.8% third-down stop rate and 3.9% takeaways.

• Total: Under 46.5 (-111) is in range if Chicago’s defense stalls drives and New Orleans’ 3.8% explosive pass rate limits chunk gains.

• Bears team total Over 26.0 (-120): Saints’ 72.2% red-zone TD rate allowed can turn sustained drives into points.

• Saints team total Under 20.5 (-122): Money downs and turnovers point to fewer sustained scores for NO.

• Spencer Rattler Under 211.5 passing yards (-120): Bears squeeze third downs; Saints lack explosive air plays.

• Alvin Kamara Over 21.5 receiving yards (-119) — volatility (Questionable): NO uses no-huddle 19.7%; check status.

Note the juice on several markets. Props tied to Questionable players have higher variance.

Chicago brings a clear edge on defense. They win takeaways and get off the field. That plays into field position and gives their offense more shots.

New Orleans needs efficiency. Short throws to backs and tight ends can help, but the lack of explosive passes raises the degree of difficulty. Red-zone defense has also hurt them, and that is a bad match with Chicago’s quick-strike ability.

From a betting view, Bears -5.0 (-105) fits the matchup. The Under 46.5 (-111) is also live if the Bears control pace and the Saints stay limited downfield. Team totals reflect the same story: modest lean to Bears Over 26.0 and Saints Under 20.5.

Bottom line: turnovers, third downs, and red-zone execution should steer this game. If Chicago protects the ball and finishes drives, the Bears are set up well at home.