• Broncos pass rush sets the tone. Denver’s defense generates sacks on 13.3% of dropbacks (top tier).

• Giants O-line health matters. LT Andrew Thomas (Q) and C John Michael Schmitz Jr. (Q) directly tie to NYG’s 7.1% sack rate allowed.

• Red-zone leverage favors Denver. Broncos defense allows TDs on 26.7% of red-zone trips; Giants offense sits at 45.5%.

• Big-play passes may be scarce. NYG allows explosive passes at 5.6%; DEN’s deep-pass explosive rate is 1.9%.

• Giants tempo is a tool. No-huddle 16.0% and shotgun 56.2% can stress Denver’s substitutions and create RB targets.

• Sample-size note. Big-play TD rates (NYG 26.3%, DEN 23.5%) come from small samples (19 and 17 plays).

• Anchor spread: Broncos -7.5 (+102). Plus-money on the hook. It leans on Denver’s 13.3% sack rate and elite 72.8% third-down stops.

• Anchor total: 41.5 — Under -147 / Over -105. Explosive pass numbers are muted on both sides, and red-zone stops favor a lower total. Heavy juice to the Under, so size stakes accordingly.

• Broncos team total 23.5: Under -116 / Over -122. NYG caps explosives 5.6%; that can hold Denver to drives, not shots.

• Giants team total 16.0: Under -120 / Over -118. Denver’s red-zone defense 26.7% and sack rate push Under risk.

• Bo Nix Under 218.5 pass yds (-120): NYG limits chunk passes and DEN’s deep rate is 1.9%.

• Jaxson Dart Under 165.5 pass yds (-119) (volatility: Q): Pressure plus 72.8% third-down stop rate can stall drives.

Props tied to players listed Questionable (Dart, Thomas, Engram, Mims) carry extra variance. Consider smaller wagers or wait for inactives.

Denver owns the sharper edges on defense. The Broncos rush the passer at a top-tier rate and shut the door in the red zone. That profile wins a lot of ugly games at altitude.

New York’s counter is tempo and the quarterback run game. If Dart plays and avoids negative plays, the Giants can hang around with scrambles and quick throws to Skattebo. But red-zone finishing has lagged.

Explosive passes are unlikely to decide this. Protection, field position, and who cashes short fields will. That setup leans Under and favors Denver at home.

Our anchors land on Broncos -7.5 (+102) and Total 41.5, Under -147. Shop numbers, respect the juice, and keep prop exposure modest until the injury picture clears.