• Philly is elite in the red area: a 77.8% red-zone TD rate (sample 18) stresses a Giants defense that has allowed TDs on 63.6% of red-zone trips (sample 22).

• Explosive chess match: the Eagles’ deep-pass explosive rate is 6.0% (84th percentile) while the Giants allow explosive passes at just 6.3% (86th percentile). Winning downfield decides chunk plays.

• Pace flag: both teams use no-huddle often (NYG 16.6%, PHI 17.9%). More no-huddle usually means more snaps and chances for variance.

• Protection watch: Philly’s sack rate allowed sits at 9.3% (16th percentile). Giants’ pass rush is average (5.2%, 31st), so Eagles’ banged-up interior could still be a pressure point.

• Giants’ big-play TD rate is 30.8% (97th percentile; small sample 26). When they create explosives, they finish them.

• Short-yardage note: Philly’s goal-line stuff rate is only 22.2% (6th percentile; very small sample 9). That can keep opponent rushing TD chances alive.

• Spread sits at Eagles -7.5 (-111). Giants +7.5 is -122. The extra tax on the dog shows respect for the key number.

• Total is 43.5 with Over -123 and Under -111. Both sides carry juice. Market leans to a moderate total with room for pace to push it.

• Team totals: Eagles 26.0 (Over -120 / Under -119). Giants 17.0 (Over -125 / Under -114). These mirror the full-game pricing.

• Jalen Hurts passing 210.5: Over -120 vs Under -119. Philly’s deep profile fits an Over, but check A.J. Brown’s status.

• Jaxson Dart rushing 37.5: Over -118 vs Under -122. Philly’s low pressure-to-sack conversion can turn pressure into scrambles. Volatility: Dart is Questionable.

• Anytime TD board highlights roles and juice: Cam Skattebo -125, Jalen Hurts -163, DeVonta Smith +180, A.J. Brown +163 (Questionable). Build in injury variance before betting.

This rematch should feel fast and physical. The Eagles excel in the red zone and on deep shots. The Giants try to mute explosives and lean on their backs and QB runs to stay on schedule.

If Philly’s line holds up and at least one star pass catcher plays near full strength, the favorite’s ceiling rises. If the Giants’ injured defenders suit up and hold down the deep ball, we could see a tighter, field-position game.

The market sits on a key spread and a modest total. Expect movement at inactives. Respect the juice on both the total and team totals. Tie your card to the final status of A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert, and Jaxson Dart.

Price shop, manage risk, and remember that divisional games can swing on one explosive or one red-zone trip.