• Jets rushing edge: NYJ explosive run rate is 9.8% (100th percentile; sample 82). Miami allows explosive runs at 8.2% (9th percentile; sample 97).

• Miami finishes drives: Dolphins red-zone TD rate is 83.3% (91st; sample 6, small sample), while the Jets’ goal-line stuff rate is just 16.7% (6th; sample 6, small sample).

• Money downs clash: Miami converts 54.3% on third down (100th; sample 35), but the Jets’ defense owns a 64.9% third-down stop rate (73rd; sample 37).

• Jets passing downs lag: NYJ converts only 6.3% on third-and-long (3rd; sample 16), signaling issues when behind the sticks.

• Explosive passes allowed: Jets give up explosive passes on 13.0% of attempts (3rd; sample 92). If Tyreek Hill (Q) or Jaylen Waddle win outside, Miami can create chunk gains.

• Injuries matter: Jets have OL hits (Alijah Vera-Tucker IR; C Gus Hartwig IR; LT Esa Pole Q). Miami lists Tyreek Hill (Q), De’Von Achane (Q), and Darren Waller (Q). Availability directly ties to the explosive-play and red-zone traits above.

• Anchor spread: Dolphins -3.5 (+100). Even money on the home side, but the hook adds risk in a close game.

• Anchor total: 45.5 (Over +106, Under -128). Under is juiced, matching Miami’s low explosive pass rate and the Jets’ third-and-long issues.

• Dolphins team total 23.5 (Over -116, Under -122). Miami’s red-zone TD rate supports the Over, but note the tight juice both ways.

• Jets team total 20.5 (Over -116, Under -122). NYJ ground edge points to scoring chances if drives stay on schedule.

• Breece Hall over 47.5 rushing yards (-116). Trait edge is clear: No. 1 explosive run rate vs a defense that leaks chunk runs.

• Jaylen Waddle Anytime TD (+162). Price pairs with NYJ’s high explosive-pass rate allowed. De’Von Achane Anytime TD (-137) is also viable if he’s active.

This looks like a trench and situational football game. The Jets can tilt it on the ground with Breece Hall if they avoid long-yardage downs. Miami can answer by winning third downs and finishing in the red zone.

Injuries will steer the script. If Justin Fields plays, his legs add a layer the Dolphins have to account for. If Tyreek Hill or De’Von Achane sit, Miami’s explosive ceiling dips, and the grind matters more.

From a numbers view, the market sits near a field goal and a mid-40s total. That matches the profile: steady drives, a few splash runs, and key third downs.

Bet responsibly. Prices carry juice and the inactives list can swing both props and side totals. Scale positions to the uncertainty and be ready to adjust when statuses lock.