• Money down battle: Minnesota’s defense stops 68.8% of third downs (95th pct), while the Eagles convert only 34.7% (16th pct). That points to stalled Philly drives if they live in third and long.

• Finish vs resistance: Philadelphia’s red-zone TD rate is 87.5% (small sample, 16 trips), meeting a Vikings defense that allows TDs on 50.0% of red-zone chances.

• Explosives on the table: The Vikings create deep explosive passes 6.8% of the time (91st pct). “Explosive” means gains of 20-plus yards on deep balls. Justin Jefferson is Questionable, so volatility applies.

• Protection chess match: Minnesota’s pressure-to-sack conversion is 8.7% (88th pct). Philly’s sack rate allowed sits at 9.0% (12th pct). If the Vikings win edges, they can disrupt timing.

• Pace contrast: The Eagles use no-huddle 19.8% of snaps (97th pct). The Vikings sit at 6.6%. Tempo could favor early Eagles rhythm.

• O-line health matters: With Darrisaw Out for Minnesota and key Eagles linemen Questionable, pass protection quality could swing series.

• Anchor spread: Eagles -3.0 (+124). Philly’s elite red-zone rate (87.5%) gives them separation potential if they cross midfield often. Plus price adds risk and reward.

• Anchor total: 43.5 — Under -111 / Over -120. Both teams lag on third-down offense (PHI 34.7%, MIN 31.6%). Fewer sustained drives can pull totals down.

• Eagles team total 22.5 (-110 O/U): No-huddle 19.8% boosts play count, but they still must solve MIN’s 68.8% third-down stops.

• Vikings team total 20.5 Over (-125) / Under (+104): Deep explosives (6.8%) are their path over, but Darrisaw Out raises variance on protection.

• Jalen Hurts Under 208.5 pass yds (-119): MIN’s third-down defense limits volume; short fields may still lead to TDs, not yards.

• Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (-118): Eagles punch it in at 87.5% in the red zone, and Hurts often finishes drives. Mind the juice.

Props tied to Questionable players (Jefferson, Barkley, Goedert) carry extra variance. Confirm status before betting.

This game likely turns on third down. Minnesota’s defense has been elite at getting off the field, while Philadelphia’s offense has struggled to stay on schedule. If the Vikings keep the Eagles behind the sticks, they can tilt the pace.

Philly still has a strong trump card. Once the Eagles reach the red zone, they finish. That can mask some third-down issues and make shorter box scores still count on the scoreboard.

Quarterback health for Minnesota is the wildcard. A healthy Jefferson plus clean pockets can spark deep shots. Without that, the Vikings may need to string drives together, which has been a weakness.

Our anchors reflect the market we have. It’s Eagles -3.0 (+124) and 43.5 on the total. Expect swings around injuries and quarterback news. Build your card with that variance in mind, and price shop the numbers you want.