NFLGame PreviewsPHI VS TB Preview Week4 season 28-SEP-2025

Game Preview of Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Week 4 of 2025 NFL Season

PHI logo

PHI

3-0-0
@
28SEP25
01:00pm
TB logo

TB

3-0-0
Raymond James Stadium

Game Preview

The Philadelphia Eagles visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 28, at 1:00 PM ET. It is a Week 4 test with playoff feel.

 

Philadelphia brings tempo and efficiency. The Eagles use no-huddle at a high rate, which means faster snaps and more plays. They have finished drives well too, scoring touchdowns on every red-zone trip so far, though that is a small sample.

 

Tampa Bay leans on defense and a bursty ground game. The Bucs have been excellent on third down, getting off the field at one of the best rates in the league. Their run game has popped explosives, which are rushes of 10 or more yards.

 

Injuries loom large. Dallas Goedert is out for the Eagles, so targets may shift to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. For Tampa Bay, Mike Evans is Doubtful and Baker Mayfield is Questionable with an arm issue. Tristan Wirfs and Chris Godwin are also Questionable. That creates real volatility for the Bucs passing plan.

Current Season Form

PHI logo

PHI

Away
Record:3-0-0
ATS:2-1-0
O/U:1-2-0
TB logo

TB

Home
Record:3-0-0
ATS:2-1-0
O/U:1-2-0

Head-to-Head Summary

Record:
1-4Winner logo
ATS:2-3-0
O/U:2-3-0

Past Results

DateOpponentResultATSO/U
2025-09-21vs NYJW 29-27W +6.5o43.5
2025-09-15@ HOUW 20-19L 2.5u42.5
2025-09-07@ ATLW 23-20W +-1.5u47.5
2025-01-12vs WASL 20-23P 3.0u51.5
2025-01-05vs NOW 27-19W +14.5o44.5
2024-12-29vs CARW 48-14W +9.5o47.5
2024-12-22@ DALL 24-26W +-4.5o47.5
2024-12-15@ LACW 40-17W +3.0o46.0
2024-12-08vs LVW 28-13W +7.0u47.0
2024-12-01@ CARW 26-23W +-6.5o46.0

Key Insights

 

  • Bucs on money downs. Tampa Bay’s defense owns a 68.6% third-down stop rate (91st percentile), a key lever against a strong Eagles offense.

  • Bucs can rip runs. Tampa Bay posts an 8.0% explosive run rate (91%; sample 87), while Philly allows explosive runs at 4.3% (42%; sample 47).

  • Eagles sustain drives. Philly has a 100% long-drive efficiency so far (89%; small sample 8) and runs no-huddle on 18.5% of snaps (94%), stressing tired defenses.

  • Pass-rush picture favors TB protection. Philly generates sacks on just 3.1% of dropbacks (16%; sample 65). That can help a banged-up Bucs line if Wirfs plays.

  • Red-zone tug-of-war. Eagles offense is perfect in the red zone (small sample), while the Bucs defense has allowed TDs on only 42.9% of red-zone trips (78%; sample 7).

  • Target tree shift for PHI. With Goedert Out, WR usage should rise. That pairs with Philly’s moderate explosive pass rate but strong third-down conversion (43.9%; 78%).

 

Betting Insights

 

  • Anchor spread: Eagles -3.5 (-120). Price says Philly by a field goal plus the hook. Extra juice tightens margin for error.

  • Anchor total: 45.0 (Over -106, Under -127). Market leans Under with heavier juice, matching Tampa Bay’s third-down defense.

  • Moneyline: Eagles -213 / Buccaneers +150. Implies Philly advantage but leaves room for late-game swings.

  • Team totals: Eagles 24.0 (Over -115, Under -123); Bucs 20.0 (Over -112, Under -127). Split points to a medium-scoring script.

  • Jalen Hurts anytime TD (-141): Philly is 100% in the red zone to date (small sample). Hurts’ goal-line role supports the price, but the juice is real.

  • A.J. Brown over 65.5 yards (-119): Goedert Out funnels targets; TB’s low turnover rate (0.6%) helps drives reach volume.

  • DeVonta Smith over 47.5 yards (-119): No-huddle rate of 18.5% boosts play count, aiding a second WR over.

  • Bucky Irving over 60.5 rushing (-122): Tampa Bay’s run game ranks highly in explosive rate. Note OL and RB injury tags create variance.

 

Final Summary

This looks like a field position and situational game. Tampa Bay’s defense excels on third down, and that can slow Philly’s tempo. The counter is the Eagles’ ability to sustain long drives and finish in the red zone.

Offense for Tampa Bay may flow through the ground first. The Bucs have produced chunk runs, and Philly’s pass rush has not closed drives with sacks. Health is the hinge. If Tristan Wirfs and Chris Godwin are active, Tampa Bay’s floor rises. If Mike Evans sits, the vertical bite drops.

The market sits near Eagles -3.5 with a total around 45. That matches a controlled pace with a few big moments. Props tied to Philadelphia’s WRs fit the injury picture, but watch the board for late status moves.

Bet with price discipline. Several options carry notable juice, which cuts value. For any play tied to Questionable or Doubtful tags, expect variance and be ready to pass if the number moves against you.

Statistical Battle Boards

Viewing: TB Offense vs PHI Defense
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Total Points72#1263#18TB advantage
Total Points Per Game24#1221#15TB advantage
Total Touchdowns7#206#12PHI advantage
Passing Touchdowns6#53#8TB advantage
Rushing Touchdowns1#303#19PHI advantage
Other Touchdowns0#220#9PHI advantage
Total Kicking Points24#1327#7PHI advantage
Total Two Point Conversions0#90#9🏈
Kick Extra Points6#196#19🏈
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Net Passing Yards575#22557#22🏈
Net Passing Yards Per Game192#22186#22🏈
Passer Rating99.5#1175.8#29TB advantage
Passing Attempts99#1497#18TB advantage
Completions61#2056#26TB advantage
Completion Percentage61.6#2557.7#3PHI advantage
Passing 1st downs34#1326#8PHI advantage
Passing 1st Down %56.7#1442.6#2PHI advantage
Longest Pass30#3049#12PHI advantage
Passing Fumbles Lost0#320#24PHI advantage
Receiving Targets94#1695#13PHI advantage
Receptions61#2056#6PHI advantage
Receiving Yards After Catch313#17200#2PHI advantage
YAC Average5.1#113.6#1PHI advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Rushing Yards392#7400#24TB advantage
Rushing Yards Per Game131#7133#9TB advantage
Rushing Attempts87#779#15TB advantage
Yards Per Rush Attempt4.5#155.1#6PHI advantage
Rushing 1st downs18#1627#29TB advantage
20+ Yard Rushing Plays2#92#9🏈
Long Rushing33#1249#8PHI advantage
Rushing Fumbles2#92#9🏈
Rushing Fumbles Lost0#191#4PHI advantage