• Steelers red-zone TD rate is 100% (small sample), while Seattle’s defence allows TDs on 40% of red-zone trips.

• Seattle’s deep explosive pass rate is 13.6% (98th percentile, small 22-attempt sample).

• Pittsburgh’s passing game posts 11.8% explosive pass rate (75th percentile) with 9.7% scheme explosives (94th).

• Seattle offence is at 30% on third downs (19th percentile, 10-play sample), capping drive count.

• Steelers’ defence has allowed a high rate of explosive runs (12.8%, 6th percentile), a path for Kenneth Walker III.

• Secondary health matters: PIT S DeShon Elliott OUT; CB Joey Porter Jr. QUESTIONABLE (volatility). SEA LT Charles Cross QUESTIONABLE.

• Pick, Spread: Steelers -3.5 (+112). Pittsburgh’s red-zone edge and scheme explosives match up with Seattle’s explosive passes allowed (14.7%, 12th percentile).

• Total, Anchor: Under 45.0 (-244). Pricey, but both offences show drive-sapping issues (SEA 30% on 3rd downs). If you want less juice, alternatives exist in the market (e.g., Under 41.5 -145), but our anchor is 45.0 per the rules.

• Moneyline: Steelers -169. Correlates with the ATS view in a one-score script.

• Team Total (PIT 20.5): Over 20.5 (-123). Leans with PIT’s early red-zone finish rate and Seattle’s leakage on explosives.

• Aaron Rodgers Pass TDs: Over 1.5 (+122). Finishing power plus SEA’s 14.7% explosive passes allowed backs two scores through the air.

• Kenneth Walker III Rush Yards: Over 44.5 (-120). Steelers’ defence has allowed a high explosive run rate (12.8%).

This sets up as a classic Steelers home game: defence, field position, and a few well-timed shots. Pittsburgh’s scheme has generated explosives, and the red-zone finish rate points to enough points to clear the winning line.

Seattle still has a deep-ball gear. But the offence’s third-down issues and a questionable left tackle can stall drives on the road. The Seahawks’ defence has also given up chunk gains through the air, which fits the Steelers’ strengths.

Injuries push us toward Pittsburgh. The Steelers’ secondary is thin, but Seattle must protect long enough to exploit it. Meanwhile, Rodgers should find answers in the low and red-zone passing game.

Pick: Steelers -3.5 (+112). Lean: Under 45.0 (-244) at the anchor, understanding the heavy juice. Prop angles: Rodgers Over 1.5 pass TDs (+122) and Walker Over 44.5 rush yards (-120). Bet responsibly; small early-season samples raise variance.